Thursday, September 15, 2016

What does these 3 VIX Charts say to you?

Chart first!  This is a regular ole chart of the VIX, which is basically the inverse of stocks, magnified like 5 times.  Form an opinion before reading on.  

 This actually looks like a pure sell signal right?
Now look at this chart with an hourly freq instead of daily.

 It looks like, after a massive move, it turned up late in the day.  Do you ignore this because of the solid daily sell signal?  In the hourly, the last period of the day is actually just a half hour.  On the half-hourly chart, it looks more bullish. 

Now, if you said ignore it and go with the daily freq, definitely check out this next shot of the weekly.

the most recently finished week is the second to last tally, and it's heavily into the buy territory.  On the most recent mark, it's not complete and it's almost entirely a buy, with the UO lagging a bit, but with the choppiness of the last few weeks, it really looks quite acceptable to me.  I will also add that the monthly is just short of a buy signal in the most recently completed month.

What I really want to draw your attention to is that apparently perfect bounce off the weekly EMA. Is that a turning point?  If it hugs the EMA like it die on most of these charts, it will trend up, because the EMA is pretty steeply up right now.

In my experience, I look at these other freq(uencies) a lot and the evolution system is usually good on all of them.  The indicators go by periods, so they adjust automatically. 

The dips like the one that happened today are pretty common during a bullish day when I check hourly charts.  Every so often it will dip below the EMA and shoot back up in the next period. 

With the amount of daily choppiness that's been going on, maybe the daily signal is compramised?  On the weekly, the most recent two lines look a lot like the two lines before them.

To me this looks massively bullish when you look at all the evidence available, but I really want to know what you people think.  One thing is for sure, it could be a big move, and it will suck to be wrong! 

I will pay close attention to that pivot point if it is a bullish day.  It's been 2 complete days since the peak completed.  How long does it take until it becomes permanent?  I think if the price takes that out, they will take the arrow away.

7 comments:

  1. On the WEEKLY freq - The sky is overcast with the kumo above. Bearish EMA/WMA cross. Falling UO. Will the SMA provide support? The SD peak will be established next week with the CMO dropping down the following. Looks bearish to me.

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    1. Did it look bearish after the week before last?

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    2. Thanks for your input, it's kinda sounding like you think it will become bearish, but it is currently bullish.

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    3. Yes, the weekly trend is still up, but I read it as becoming bearish going forward. I guess I misunderstood your question...Sorry.

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    4. It ended up just being bullish in the very short term. It ended up bullish on most indicators for the week but finished the day down. So, I guess Evo nailed it perfectly.

      Bullish over a period of hours, bearish over a day, and we'll see how the weekly signal plays out going forward. The annoying thing about the weekly is that you have to wait a long time.

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    5. Or, EVO said mixed signals, and it was a very mixed day today. I suppose this is why it's best just to look for solid signals and ignore not-quite signals.

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  2. It is now 09-29-16 and it appears that the weekly VIX is playing out as I suggested above on 09-16-16. Will check back after the close this Friday...

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