Sunday, September 18, 2016

Potential big move on the DOW (and probably other stocks too)

I just showed this chart basically, but I think I need to revisit it.


While it is warning of a possible pivot point, I think that is automatically there as long as we are off the low.  In my experience it really means nothing, and thus, this is a sell signal.  It's extra significant because there is a fed meeting this week.  I drew lines for hte previous sells.  It's almost always followed by at least 1 week of declining price and often more.  They aren't always meaty drops though.  But look at this very long term monthly chart:

There have only been 3 sell signals!!!  This one will require a closing below the blue line to be a sell signal. The previous sell signals have all been substantial, -50%, -10%, and -15%. 

I drew in 2 gray lines that I think might have been sell signals at the time with the SD peak disappearing later.  Also I circled the ONLY times that it has had 2 consecutive down months outside of a sell signal.  And now I see one more that I missed.

So with a weekly sell signal, this month is very likely to finish as a sell signal, and it's going to be big. 

It is momentarily strong on the daily, so this is lining up perfectly for a small bounce until around the fed time and then it goes to shit.  Should be interesting.

I'm also going to mention Martin armstrong.  He predicted a 2 day slide, and it looks to be over after one day.  Perhaps we will find a low on Monday and recover, then he will sorta be right.  

Other than banks, All stocks I checked seemed bullish.  XLE looks a bearish (energy sector) 

8 comments:

  1. Hey, very nice blog! I have been following Martin Armstrongs for a year(read every blogpost, videos and bought reports) and find Bo Polney quite interesting(although I am not prepared to pay that much for his information). Today I will start trading part time. With The EVO system together with Martys updates. Soon he will release the trading version of Socrates. Keep up the good work and it is great to find someone that can help to interpret Martys system. Because the Socrates support is quite rude and not helpful. Sadly I am Swedish so I can not use Fidelity. I have tried several different platforms and even with importing tools etc. I cant get it set up. So I use tradingview. Have a great trading day!

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    1. I did his 10 dollar trial for martin Armstrong but that's it. So I read the blog. It's usually very vague.

      Bo Polny and martin Armstrong line up perfectly for a major crash on the 23rd. Also Evolution is looking bearish for that time. I think I should dedicate a post just towards Sept 23.

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    2. One more from Sweden :)
      Have you tried making the system work on Ninja Trader?
      Because there is only 1 indicator lacking there.. the PPHiLo..
      NT has a couple om similar indicators but they seem to work in alternative ways.
      You don't happen to know how this PPHiLo is calculated? F.x. if its 5 bars with 2 higher lows on each side of the 3rd candle.. or something like that.. If its not much more complicated than that then it would be fairly easy to create the indicator manually in NT.

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    3. I think you can find this out if you research it on the internet.

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    4. That assumes the PPHiLo is standardized.
      Not sure it is. Since not much info appears searching for it. So we would need to know how its calculated.. It might be as easy as for someone to just take a look at the chart..
      If its the same things as the "fractals" fx it is just a swing point where the lowest low bar has 2 candles on each side of it with higher lows.

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    5. I agree that Armstrong is vague and lately his blog has been very focused on politics(which I also enjoy) at the cost of trading articles. I have spent weeks(of effective time) to understand Martins system. What he has stated several times is that he is trying to teach the readers to think on their own. Hence he never give any direct buy/sell recommentations. Nevertheless his invention(Socrates) is very accurate. I have spent $150 for investor level and will upgrade to trader. Tomorrow(22nd) is the main target on the daily level for DJIA and 23rd will be quite volitile. On the weekly level we will have a quite choppy trend last, this and next week. Which also Greg has suggested. It will be interesting to see what happens today. But I guess I will fall asleep when Yellen talks because she is so incredibly vague. I love how traders/institutions try to interpret he and try to explain what she actually mean.

      Anyways I tried to set it up the EVO system with NT(Ninja Trader). As commented above I missed some tools, but the only one I could not find to import was PPHiLo. If anyone has success with this please let me know. Martin maybe you can let me know if you have any success to import PPhiLo or writing the code on your own.

      It seems to be possible to set up the Fidelity account even if you live outside the US according to a reply I got on the EVO system main page on Youtube.

      Multicharts should work out, but I have not managed to set it up properly.

      How are you guys trading Gregs system. Are you building a large portfolio where you basicly look for any Stock, Option, Indicies etc. where a buy/sell signal is triggerd?

      Have a great day! :)

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  2. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/technical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/pivot-points-high-low

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