Saturday, September 10, 2016

FUNDAMENTALS on using THE EVOLUTION SYSTEM

Update: I think the big move will happen immediately at the open, so we might not be able to play it.  I'm going to check out the new biggest gainers/losers tomorrow and look for a turning point mid day by the hourly.

1) starting an account
It pretty much has to be fidelity to use this system.  There is another place with the indicators you need, but you have to change them some.  This is the "alternate" evolution system.  Send an email asking for access to active trader pro.

Sources of money
In addition to obvious sources of money, you could try using a credit card check with 0% APR for 16 months or whatever, or maybe you can borrow from your retirement at work.  MOST places do allow this.  Since social security is a giant con, it is not useful to you.

Amount of money
20,000 is plenty in my opinion, and you can probably make it work with 3,000.  I'd recommend 5,000 or more.  Small amounts of money might push people into riskier than ideal trades.  Large amounts of money can be kinda hard to manage.

2) Trading types
OPTIONS - Mannarino uses options, typically 3 months to expiration, and goes one spot into the money.

LEVERAGED ETFS - trade 3X leveraged funds in stocks indexes or commodities with simple buy/sell/shorts

BUY/SELL stocks with no leverage - slowest and safest.

3) How to use evolution
First - make sure you buy it if you want to use it.  Don't trade off the videos, and don't trade off of this blog.  There will be too much time lag, and you may misinterpret something.  Use your own charts.  If you are investing money, I can almost guarantee the 20 dollar pdf will pay for itself, probably on your first trade.  Even if you make money without it, you'll do better with it.

On the same topic - If you want to use Evolution make sure you follow the Formula.  don't go off grid.  Don't assume an indicator will flip if it hasn't yet.  Be patient.  There are enough hits out there that you don't have to take non hits.

4) Indicators
EMA - the price has to close above this line for a buy signal, below for a sell signal.
The pivot point arrows - These are mostly another visualization of the SD (see below)
UO - wait for it to move in your favor at least a day.  Sometimes I take 2 or more flat days to indicate a directional change.  Also, I believe if this is starting from an extreme, then the a larger move is implied.
SD - little peaks.  Don't get carried away with this.  THEY CAN DISAPPEAR!  Wait for the other indicators to come in line.  This one usually flashes first, and then moves for a few days
CMO - This is more of a confirmation.  It's usually a day late in my experience, but you have to wait for it.

5) TIME SCALES
Evolution was designed around the daily charts, but it seems to be just as solid on hourly, weekly, monthly, etc.  I often flip to the hourly to see if it is a good time to buy.  You can go smaller than hourly, but they become far less meaningful.  Don't get crazy trying to make money over a several hour span if the daily is strongly against you.  Also consider that a signal on a daily chart might do better if it coincides with the signal from the weekly chart.  I have not tested this theory.

Give more consideration to a stock that has the weekly working in the same direction as the daily.

6) EXITING TRADES
I try to be consistent for this blog, since my job is to evaluate the system.  The less of my judgement I use, the better the evaluation.  Still, the criteria to exit is not entirely fixed.
Of the 4 indicators, the best time to exit seems to be when about 3 of them are against you.  However, I always always check the hourly for exit times.  If there is a solid sell on the hourly, with some indicators turning against you, I sell.  If there all 4 indicators are favorable, I probably won't check the hourly.

If you are buying from a daily signal with the weekly signal going against you, be extra careful, and pay extra attention to the hourly.  What the weekly is telling you that the daily signal is short term and will reverse.  Check the hourly for a more precise reversal point.

Do not go against evolution hoping to win your money back.  Take that loss, and thank evolution when it admits a trade was bad before you lost even more money.

7) Diversification - I don't pay that much attention to his personally, but Mannarino recommends having some bullish positions and some bearish positions to sort of hedge eachother.

8) Anticipation - The point of Evolution is that you don't have to anticipate a move.  Guessing on earnings announcements or fed talk is probably going to make you less effective.  What you can anticipate is uncertainty, so be extra careful not extra aggressive.  In my view, evolution works the best during normalcy.  Also, I'd guess that these types of announcements can overpower evolution.

9) Keep position sizes regular.  You don't want to make one excessively large bet and have that be the 1 out of 10 that goes against you.  Treat the signals equally.

10) Mannarino advises that it's never too early to close a position and lock in profits.  I disagree.  If you are making your gains smaller, and then afraid to bail on a losing trade hoping to win back, your individual losses will be bigger than wins.  This is going to put more pressure on everything to win, which might feed into the desire to let a losing trade ride too long. 

11) You are your own boss!
Nobody tells you what trades to make, and you shouldn't use other people to tell you what to trade.  If you think you can make money with evolution, why would you choose a middleman like me, just to save 20 dollars?  The lag that would cause could cost you 20 dollars off of every trade!  You will not get complete information from other people telling you what evolution says.

12) The buddy system
I don't have a trading buddy, but it seems like running your ideas through another person will greatly reduce your emotion.  

13) Don't be lazy!  Don't find a stock and say, close enough.  Keep looking until you find a genuine hit.  Otherwise you are fighting a war without taking your weapon out of its holster.

12 comments:

  1. Put SDS on your radar. Proshares Ultrashort S&P500. Affordable call options. Early Bull trigger on EVO. This one will be a winner if the S&P continues down.

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  2. Thanks man, I love the info. This is what EVO community is all about.

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  3. Thanks man, I love the info. This is what EVO community is all about.

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  4. Joe,
    I would like to suggest a correction on 4) Indicators/EMA
    Price needs to close Above this line for Buys/Calls
    Price needs to close Below this line for Shorts/Puts

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  5. Joe,
    Do you remember I asked you if the CMO ever changed (Reverted Back)? Well today, I saw it happen. I bought puts on WBA Friday 09-09-16. The SD had completed the peak and the CMO did the leg down. Today as price traded back above the EMA, the CMO popped back up and now the chart looks as if I should be waiting for the CMO leg down. I don't have a screen shot, but I saw it happen. I will try to ask Greg about this, but I will be lucky to get an answer. Something to watch for in the future. I am still in the trade, but now I have lost some confidence in the signal...

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    1. Yes, it will be able to change until the close of that time period (usually the end of the day) but after that it is locked in, I think.

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  6. WBA update. OK, the CMO legged down again in favor of my Puts. I think if it stays down until the close, it will be fixed? It can go up or down based on the intra-day price action and relation to the EMA.

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  7. "If you are investing money, I can almost guarantee the 20 dollar pdf will pay for itself, probably on your first trade." prove it. Let's see your and Greg Mannarino's profit/loss statement.

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  8. I have the Evolution System running on Fidelity and it's amazing. I've look over Greg's earlier youtubes and have never seen him talk about how he pick his "price target". I've heard him say to watch the system for the signals, but to build a order ticket with a limit order is best most of the time. Can anybody tell me how he nail that "target price"?

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  9. So this was posted in 2016 the last post I have seen is from 2017. Has anyone that originally posted stayed with the evolution system and consistently made money?

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    1. I have the same question. My take on it is that if a lot of people were making a lot of money here. They would be posting.

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