To that one person who is big into miners

In my humble opinion, it stinks!

I've done my best to find all the evidence I can, and it all points to a market crash on the 23rd.  This one could be severe. It would take like, a bunch of charts to say everything, so I'm just going to describe what I see on evolution.

Before I do that, I must ask, how many times have you been long metals related stuff and got burned?

The Pros
1)Right now SLV has one of the best buy signals I've seen since doing evolution.  Not just on the daily, but on the weekly, hourly, 30 minute chart,(until you go out to the monthly)
2) GLD might be even stronger!
3)GDX is a buy, on the daily chart, but it is not as powerful looking as the metals themselves. 

But, and this is a big but, there are some cons here.
1) The COT reports - banks are BIG into shorts, near record levels.  The only time they were more short was just recently, and they have covered ever so slightly as the metals are off the highs.  These people have historically been right every time, however, this doesn't mean anything is imminent. 

2)  GDX was a near sell on the weekly, based on last weeks close.  There is a bullish pivot point warning, as the only blemish to an otherwise perfect sell signal.  On the monthly chart, it is a straight up sell signal (if it closes somewhat close to the current price)

3) These things are prone to violent smashes

4) In 2008, initially metals and stocks crashed togehter.  If this lasts 3-4 months, you could lose your shirt.

5) Martin Armstrong is bearish until 2017 when he believes it will finally lift off.

6) Ok, I will post one chart.  First, see if you can find the giant sized warning here:

Guess how many times the price has crossed this 50 month moving average?  If you said once in ten years, you are correct.  I think this is a fabulous point for a bounce, and look at that, an arguable sell signal at the same time. 

If this crashes down to the 50 week moving average from the 50 month moving average, then this will be a 3 dollar drop.  I made a few thousand dollars today banking on the S&P to bounce off of the moving average on the 30 minute chart, so this one will carry considerably more bouncing power.    The gold chart similarly bounced off the same moving average, but did get barely over it before starting the bounce. 

In my opinion these are about to crash, probably on the 23rd, but probably go up until the 22nd. 


Let me ask you this, why be long metals when you can be short stocks with a much higher probability for success?

If I had to bet for the 23rd, for gdx to go up, go down, or go down more than stocks, I'd probably pick the third option.  I believe evolution will get this right, so lets' agree to check back on this tomorrow before the close, and then constantly on Thursday.

I found another chart that might be helpful:

Looking at the same MA, the last time this crossed, it reversed the same amount, and then reclaimed it's downward trend.  Recently, this crossed again, and got back down to the line.  If it overshoots by the same amount that it overshot, it will drop another 30%.  I think that will be a good buying opportunity. 

Also note the horrific sell signal.  I could see the daily getting us back to that EMA line, before the monthly trend takes over and sends it down to <20. 

I don't know all the specifics, those are just guesses, but ultimately I see a much better bet available.  I'm not trying to argue with you, I'm just going to a bunch of work to hopefully give you more information to make the right choice, and I'm doing it at 1:46 AM and I have to work tomorrow!