Monday, September 12, 2016

2nd guessing a bunch of moves from today

UPDATE!  Crap me in the goat balls.  DB is flatout very bullish, and JPM is a little bullish.  I definitely can't blame those two on evolution if they go bad.  Maybe I can get out early in the day :D

I closed most of my positions near the end of the day.  I started out bearish but flipped thanks to the hourly evolution chart.  I was down a lot early but I ended up more than making up for it.  Now I'm going to double check my work and see if I made any mistakes.

All Charts will be daily


Position 1 - back into the VIX call.  What do you think?  Is this a hit?  The area of concern is the UO, which has hooked down, but, with smoothing, you could say it's trending up still.

In my opinion the UO is still bullish, but how do I know if I'm right?  The weekly view is about the same as this, very strong with only the UO casting any doubt.

Below are some financial stocks, all of which puts held from yesterday.  I had ample time to lock in some profits, but by the end of the day I still owned them.  It's JPM left, DB center, and XLF right. They aren't buys or sells, but I am holding.  DB probably looks bullish but the other two are neutral, maybe a very weak bullish.  for the most part the weekly is neutral.






OIL was another hold from yesterday.  It wasn't a buy by today, but should I have dumped it?  It looks probably neutral to me.  Probably good enough to hold if I didn't have a need for the money that was locked up.  It's a bit worrisome how it bounced off that EMA today.


FXE (right) This is a solid bear hit.  Additionally, it looks bearish on the weekly.
 

Goog, on the left, looks very bearish.  The UO hooked up but is still trending down, and it closed just under the EMA, in case you can't see it clearly.  Weekly it is very bearish.  O, for some reason is one of my favorite stocks.  This is about the same, only the UO is trending downward faster, but still hooked up today.

The last stock I bought puts on was TWTR.  I ignore those early warning Pivots, think "early" warning, meaning it probably isn't the pivot yet.  So this is full on sell hit, and is bearish on the weekly.


I listened to Mannarino's latest.  He's thinks the market just dead cat bounced today, which I agree with.  These charts look like a very bearish market went up a bunch in one day.




My bottom line, I'm probably being too emotional on DB.  I basically just refused to believe it could take off like it did when the rest of the market was tanking Friday.

Oil is really not overly bullish right now, but it's not quite weak enough to get me to abort the position.

So I like my new positions much better than the ones I've been hanging onto.  The thing about those is that I have had plenty of profit taking opportunities. 

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