Tuesday, August 30, 2016

SLV, SPX still pass the evolution test + random other comments on evolution hits.

despite down days.  GDX did see the CMO flip.  The previous pivot has been moved, and now it's giving an early warning for the 30th being the pivot.  Maybe it will stay that way, or maybe the pivot will be delayed again.  If the peak is made, and there is an additional day after the SD peak, does that mean the peak is fixed in place?  Or can it still move?

OIL flipped on the CMO, but it still looks strong overall by evolution.  Sometimes the CMO flips and flips back the next day, and these can be big moves.

If you ever think I should call an exit for the purposes of grading evolution, please let me know in the comments.  I check ALL comments simultaneously with the blog tool, so a new comment on a very old post will still get seen.  

MCD is VERY strong looking in evolution.  As in --- woof.

I hope to cow that anybody who went in on the GS got out, because today's action ... DAMN.  Actually GS is mostly a buy now, but with an early warning of a pivot.  These early warnings are a dime a dozen though, they constantly appear and disappear.

NKE puts are doing great and evolution thinks it will continue.  Most of the hits in the past 6 months were good for 2 weeks or more.

PCLN and T is mostly still in carry-on mode. 

BOND is iffy.  It was originally a bear hit.  Without a pivot point warning, I suppose I'll leave it going.

So bottom line - nothing else to score other than the GS

8-30-16 - Hit on TWTR

Mannarino's video.  He says it's not officially a hit yet, but it was yesterday.  The UO dropped a little, but was more up yesterday.  With SPX being a hit also in the same direction, I'm going to log this one into the official hits. This does not mean you should or shouldn't trade it.



Looking at past hits, they were mostly good.  A little thick skin is needed, to ride through some indicators flipping against you.  The last 2 buys were epic, as long as they weren't closed when the CMO flipped.  Overall this one seems to have been a bit tricky to play.

I suppose the last 2 buys were both epic regardless.  If it one covered when the CMO flipped, and got back in when it flipped back, it've worked out.

I didn't notice any hits today!

Feel free to post one in the comments.


I noticed XLV was very close, but it was still down trending slightly on the UO. 



Monday, August 29, 2016

What is the best way to post an end point for a hit?

Does it deserve a new post, or would it be better as an edit, inserted in the beginning of the original post.  Another option is Other, please specify.

I'm leaning towards the original post, since all posts will have to have this.  Also perhaps I should add an X or something to the name once it has been ended.

8-29-16 Evolution MCD



This is a clear hit.  I thought it was already up so I was ignoring up till now. 

Also, GS is closed, in the loss column

8-29-16 hits on SLV and GDX

SLV hit. 


Mannarino recently did a video saying it wasn't quite a hit on his evolution system.  It has since become so after a few days of flatness. 


Glancing back, the past hits have been very good, but I didn't mark them in.  Also note the extreme underbought condition on the UO.  I think that implies lots of room to grow. 


Unsurprisingly, the GDX chart looks about the same.  Feel free to check it out. 


Mannarino predicted this week would be bullish for both stocks and metals, and evolution is inclined to agree.

8-29-16 evolution hit on bitcoin! (GBTC)


This one could be juicy. 


However, it is not optionable :(  Still, today's modest price move was an impressive 4.8% so far.


We will see how evolution performs on this one.

8-29-16 Evolution hit on SPX









As of today SPX hit.  It probably hit earlier in the morning and a bit of opportunity was missed by the time of this posting, when it was 2182.




Most of the previous hits on this index were successful.  In the very recent past, the volatility has been so low there wasn't much profit to be had. 




Also, always remember this is to judge the evolution system, not to give you picks.  The system was not designed by me. 

Sunday, August 28, 2016

My take on the Evolution indicators

Price vs the EMA.  It looks prudent to pay particular attention to the closing price primarily.  For me, I'm ignoring intraday breeches until it looks like we will close on the wrong side.  Then I think it becomes very accurate.  Note- This means the platform needs to be set up with a open/hi/low/close bars instead of hollow candles

pivot points - like the SD below, these can disappear.  I think these are tied directly to the SD, and you don't get one without the other.

UO - mannarino says to ignore day to day noise and focus on multiple days or several weeks.  If this is the case, one day of the UO going against you isn't a big deal.  Also if it's flat, that seems to be as good as going with you, or at least very close. 

SD - these are the worst and the best indicators.  They are usually the first, but then sometimes they disappear!  So you have to be careful.  Half a peak here is not a peak at all, I'm ignoring completely.  Even a full peak can disappear, but I think if there is a full up and down peak, and then another day goes buy, it's fixed.  I can't seem to find any importance for the height of the peak.

CMO - This one is good for sure, but a bit late compared to SD.  Usually if you wait for this one, you miss a day of profits, but I suppose that is better than catching several days of losses.  This also seems to be one of the first indicators to flip against a trade.  Ironically, this actually is supposed to indicate the reverse of what we use it for, but due to the modifications made, it works differently.  For getting out of a trade, it might work best to wait for this to move against you 2 days.  I'll pay attention to this moving forward.

In the end there is a little bit of gray area, but very little.  Most of the gray area is based on when to get out.

Mannarino's watch list - XLV

Link: Mannarino on XLF

Please note this is NOT an evolution hit at this time.  It does look like it will be very soon.  It will need an up day, and then the price will move above the EMA, and the CMO might leg up, making it all be a hit.  When it does hit I'll post a screenshot.

Looking back at the past hits, it looks very good.

I like these broader instruments vs individual stocks. 

Comments that are useful vs comments that are not useful

Useful - Comments about the post
Not Useful - Comments not about the post

Useful - Comments about the Evolution system
Not Useful- Comments about Mannarino

Useful - people talking with each other toward the goal of learning
not useful - people trying to convince everyone they are right
             *especially if you are wrong, which you will be if you have this mentality

Useful - Evolution hits that I was unaware of
Not useful - semi-sort of near hits that aren't hits
Not useful - vague gibberish

Also we are not giving stock picks, we are giving evolution hits. 


Saturday, August 27, 2016

ENDED 8-27-16 revisiting GS from the 8-24 youtube video

UPDATE:  After another day of losses, the CMO has flipped, and with stocks being a buy hit, as well as the XLF, this one is done for at 167.42.  A 7.4% major loss. 


Mannarino came out and said this trade appears to be going against us, and called it a miss for the evolution system.  Here is the video:

First GS video

Capitulation on GS

The red line would not go as a hit at this time, but it was when the video came out.  The price was about 155.90.  The pivot point since disappeared ( I didn't know it could do that).  It has come back though.  SD is still downward, CMO is down.  The price is just barely above the EMA.

Despite the fact that mannarino has aborted, I'm keeping this around for the record.  Of note, I didn't draw them in, but some previous hits for this stock would have been solid.

GS is a bank, and went way up on a fed announcement, when Mannarino bailed.  It since went back down on another fed announcement in the same day.

I want to make this about the system, and not the man.  I pay a little more attention to closings than intraday business.


8-27-16 OIL bear



The history on this one is interesting.  For a short on about 5-2-16, it would have played out but taken 3 months to hit a buy signal.  So a more profitably exit would have been if say 2 indicators flipped.  The price was up a month later, with 3 sell signals in the mix.

It's clear that criteria to exit a position must be much looser than criteria to enter.

I'll set the exit point on 2 indicators convincingly flipping, or wait till 3 if they are less convincing.  The actual hit was a few days ago at a price of about 5.90, near the present price.

8-27-16 BOND bear hit

This BOND fund (BOND) hit the pivot a few days ago, and legged down on the CMO, but didn't turn south on the UO until friday.  A typical entry point might have been 107.55 on Friday.

8-27-16 T bull


Another one that is a few days late.  This is T.  In the last day the UO turned down, but was up, and is still up if you take the time since the hit.  I'm setting the entry price at about 40.80.  The price is still roughly at that level. 

8-27-16 Evolution hit on PCLN bear

I threw in some previous hit points.  Looks like I missed one bull hit a couple weeks ago.  These look pretty good to me.  This hit looks like I'm about 4 days late.  At the moment it is a touch above the red line, but it has been below it in the last few days, making it a complete hit in the evolution system.

I'll set the intro price from the hit for rating purposes, about 1430.  It most recently closed at 1319. 

Friday, August 26, 2016

8-26-16 NKE bearish hit



All the indicators are met on NKE on the evolution system.  I'll keep track of the progress in the comments section. If one split the high and the low in half, the entry point would have been 58.75.

Mannarino did a video on this one.   

Edit - by the end of the day the UO ticked up, but it's still down over the 2 day period but it still looks downward to me.

The Criteria for the evolution system

I am not going to list the criteria for the evolution system beyond what you can find in his videos.  He has clearly indicated that he does not want people to share this information.  This blog is to track the success or failure of the picks.

Each entry must have an image of the charts proving exactly what was happening.  also sorry, as in his videos, I must black out the specific parameters of each indicator.  All stocks done before this date will be exempt from this blog.

For maximum participation, you will have to buy it yourself.  I'm not telling you if you should do that or not.  If you are poor you can ask for it for free, and I think he does give out some free ones.

For simplicity, I'm going to focus mostly on the actual stock price gains or losses.  They would be magnified if you use options as he does. 

Please someone correct me if I have something wrong here:
The price must move past the EMA in the same direction (above=bullish, below=bearish)
There should be a "pivot point" given on the chart which correlates to the SD below (red/green arrows)

The UO should be moving (upwards for bullish, down for bearish)
SD finishes a peak, i.e. don't trade at the peak (this is usually the first indicator I think)
CMO up is bullish, down is bearish

It takes all 5 triggers for an evolution system signal.

In the image of the S&P:

The green lines are buys, and the reds are sells.  I threw a few dots on that bottom one, I believe even though they are distant from the pivot point, they still qualify with all 5 indicators.  Until I learn otherwise, I'm assuming the pivot point does NOT have to be recent.  It just has to match up to the most recent pivot point arrow.

Additionally, not that you don't have to wait for the opposite signal to get out of a position.  If you are conservative, you might bail at the first indicator that goes against you.  For example, in the volatile spot in the middle (brexit) so indicators told you to get out at least a day sooner, and there is a pivot point 2 days sooner (although it wouldn't have been established)