3-15-17 SLV

While silver is a buy, it might not be a long term buy.  This could crash off of the upper green line either as an eliot wave or head and shoulders. 


Most people out there are saying this is still very bearish.  They are generally honest people and I won't just ignore them because they disagree with me. 


Bo Poly said (on the day) that both the Dec 2015 low will be the low forever, and the Dec 2016 low will be the next lowest price forever.  He called the Jan 25 to the day, as the low for 2017. 


He recently called for a short term top on April 11th, but we don't know when that rally will start without buying the expensive gold report.


So this is what I got.  I won't be taking any action until it gets outside of one of these green lines. 

A couple buys - WMT and O

These look good to me, what do you think? In addition to buy signals, I'm also paying attention to peaks and troughs. Buying with higher lows and higher peaks. This looks like a great buy opportunity. I'm only making one chart but O looks good to me.

EWI

I was thinking short but decided it looked like a bullish breakout! It looks like it's broken out of a very long term resistance. This is a monthly chart but you can also focus in on the weekly chart of the last year. It looks the same! So, not a good shorting entry in my opinion. I'll watch this for a bounce off of an overhead resistance line.

The Collapse of the Euro

Through a variety of means, I have convinced myself with high probability that Le Pen will win the French elections.  She is not favored to win, so this is not priced in. 


According to Armstrong, there will be a bounce before the crash, so don't short yet.


"The key resistance will be 10855 and a weekly closing above that level will point to a rally back to the 11050 area and a monthly closing above that would then point to 112-115 level. March needs to close above 11300 on a pure technical perspective to raise any hope of a more prolonged rally beyond 2 months."


I suspect that because there is no hope of a prolonged rally, March will not close above 1130.


It does look a bit bullish on the weekly chart for the short term.  Based on what Armstrong says, I will look for a bounce off of 110.50 or 108.55 for my entry.  It will weaken to zero by 2018 but I'll probably just target June or so with options.




Somewhat related to this will be the collapse of Italy, EWI.


DB is supposed to make a monthly turning point in April.  So that makes sense that April could be a high and then it drops in May when Le Pen wins May 7th.


I'm just doing this blog entry for myself, as I plan to refer back to this post instead of rounding up multiple sources every time I want to double check my thinking.

Important gold / dow ahead numbers from Armstrong

"What we do not want to see is a high form in April that still failed to get through 1362."


"Two key months ahead appear to be shaping up as April and September this year."


Gold/Silver benchmark target dates:

So the next major targets are June 19 (gold) and April 17 (silver).  For the most part the gold/silver targets are far apart, and I think that means less significant.  He has the close-to-eachother targets in red.


For the Dow:
resistance stands at 21588.25 during March, it has taken on a new life once again and is poised to test the top of the channel.


Exceeding the 21589 area will be critical and then it becomes possible to see the 23500 area by May. We should see then a small correction, but once this market gets through the 23,500 zone, we can see the Phase Transition unfold into 2018."


So a pullback from 23500 and then a "phase transition into 2018".  From previous readings of his, a phase transition is basically a doubling of price, and an MAJOR high that lasts possibly for decades.  This would be the 1980 gold high of 800+ that wasn't broken until the 2000s. 


I believe his advice is to move from the phase transition to metals in 2018?  Espeically if gold is forming a slingshot move/ false low before blasting off. 


So to sum up:
Stocks up, then get out around 21588 to make sure it breaks 21589 first and then look for 23500 by May. 


(DO NOT make trades based on this!  Feel free to read it but then come up with your own trades) 


Bo Polny thinks March 22-24 will be a major low, with March 8 being the ideal time to short.  I think it will probably be a low but just a question of how low?