Wednesday, November 30, 2016

NEXT WEEK starting 12-5-16

The Unusuable - Bo Polny has Monday as a good candidate for Black Monday, although he really says anytime between 12-5 and 12-30, with earlier in the range being more likely.  An old prophecy says the United States will collapse after Russia collapses and recovers, and then Fidel Castro will die.  I believe webbot is also onto some impending stock doom, I'm going to get caught up on that.






Now that that's out of the way...




Keep in mind this is a major weekly turning point on the Dow.  Panic Cycle for next week.  This could imply a very big move.  Also realize, the panic cycle could be a reversal in the upward direction, so if it starts the week higher, I won't panic. 


This week is also a Euro turning point, which appears that it will be a high.  If it's not a high then I will just not play this part of it.


I wish I had some data on gold.  I'm assuming it will be an up week, but without much to go on, so I'll probably stay away.


Don't forget DB, this is also a monthly turning point for DB, and if Stocks are going down, DB might go down harder.


I'm going to stay Short on JJC, because I believe it is actually post-head in a head and shoulders.


It looks like a lot of technology stocks are sells right now.  INTC would have been a fabulous one to enter yesterday.  Does anybody else think Evolution works best on tech stocks? 

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Assange dead?

I'm currently investigating.  It doesn't look good.  It might take me a long time to actually get it all together enough to put out the story with a timeline.

Opportunity for Friday

This is a dow Jones weekly chart.  I circled in blue the turning point weeks.  The one 2 weeks ago didn't happen, but it was just .1% away from closing negative.

This week is supposed to be a turning point, so if it finishes higher I will go short.  Bo Polny's stock market thing also agrees with this.



And for Fun

Monday, November 28, 2016

I really like AAPL Short right now

Look at this one:  We got a clear signal without missing any of the move. 



Also, it is maximally compressed. 


By the way, if you are actually trading, just pay the money for Mannarinos stuff.  You can make or lose thousands of dollars on good or bad trades with options, so why would you stress over 20 dollars?  It's $45 for both systems I think. 


Officially you should wait until it's obviously going to close below the cyan line as it's only 13 cents off at the moment.

Friday, November 25, 2016

FXE



It looks like last week was a turning point afterall, and this week is finishing higher.  Next week should be the next turning point, meaning it will continue up.


Timing Array


The DJIA did not hit it's turning point.  Maybe they will trade together next week, and both hit highs. 

The Final Days of the Election, What Really Happened?

UPDATE - I've better improved my understanding so I'm going to do a remake of this story.


Background - the election is beyond rigged for Hillary.  She needed the states the polls were giving her, and Nevada, with New Hampshire being extremely close.


The story begins at T-Friday before the election.  That night the FBI was mobilizing for a raid.  We don't know on what exactly, but probably related to pizzagate. 


T-Sunday before the election:  The raid never materialized.  Hillary issues a warning about a "whopper of a wikileak" that will be fake.  (See link in the old material) and instead Comey said on Sunday that they were dropping the email investigation. 


T-Monday before the election:
The stock market takes off, this was the turning point.  But was it because Hillary was now cleared to win?  Or because some big money knew Trump was going to win?  When it was official, the market didn't turn back, it kept going, so the real stock market turning point was over the weekend.


AFTER getting the all clear from the FBI, Hillary cancels fireworks show?  The cause/effect here is suspicious. 


What really happened over the weekend, is that a deal was struck.  Wikileaks held back it's "whopper", the FBI dropped the investigation, and Hillary agreed to rig the election - for Trump. 


Election results:
The election did go to Trump, but it was all very suspicious.  Trump loses the states that were closest in the polls, New Hampsire, Colorado, and Nevada, and wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan?  And in hindsight, Hillary was not obligated to let Trump win the popular vote in the deal.


Jill Stein is asking for a recount, and while she will surely make some money, the ultimate goal here is probably to delegitimize the election.  Change the result is approaching impossible, as there is only a 1/8 change to gain at all in 3 states, much lower to get enough to win.  This could actually cancel the electors from those states, because they won't be verified in time, sending it to congress to pick the president, so then Trump would win neither the electoral college nor the popular vote. 


Credit to Bix Weir for getting me started on this track.








Wikileaks internet is shutdown by Team Hillary 10-17-16


FBI reopens email investigation from Weiner's laptop 10-28-16


News circulates about pricing trafficking children 11-4-16


Team Hillary is a bunch of satan worshippers  11-5-16, (wikileaks)


FBI drops the email investigation again 11-6-16 (Sunday)


Team Clinton warns about a "Whopper" of a Wikileak (that will be fake)


Clinton calls off Fireworks 11-7-16






What I think happened, is that Hillary was made aware of all the stuff that was about to destroy her.  She agreed to lose, then wikileaks held back, FBI dropped the investigation, and she cancelled her fireworks show. 



Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The latest on GLD

UPDATE 11-25-16: Not really an update, but a rehash
"The Quarterly Bearish now lies at 1179 and that becomes extremely important. If that is elected, then it will warn gold can still break the 1,000 level but we have support intraday at the 875 area up to 987."


" Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000. "


It's now at about that price, 1180.  He said early this week that Friday was a target for a daily turning point. 


Also, Jill Stein is about to officially file for a recount in Wisconsin.  That might do a number on some things.  I don't trust the stock price, but given the other indicators for gold, I think that's a decent play (long).






I'm going to drastically reduce the amount of trades I make, because damn do I suck.  I was so good there for a while!  This is why you can't trust a guy showing you a month worth of good trades and give him a bunch of money. 




"Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000."


So that was the latest.  He went on to say "It may very well break the psychological level of 1000 for 2017" 


This is from Monday:
Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30. The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th.


So much for a bounce to the 1231 level, or was I reading into what he said too much?  Of course he's never going to guarantee a move, so I'm going to call this a miss.


So I'm going to do nothing until Friday, and then hope that the daily turning point is correct.  So it should fall again into Friday, if today is not a turning point.  So then the move is to go long on Friday? 


Extra thought - I didn't buy Bo Polny's gold report discount (although it's still available through tomorrow) which is interesting.  The deal expires Thursday, right before Armstrong says it's a turning point?  Do they have the same turning point date? 


Bo Has three through the fed meeting.  I'm assuming he's saying it will go up after the fed meeting, because he's very bullish on gold.  That means the other turning point will be downward, and the first one (Friday?) will be upward? 


So, I'm going to go for it, calls on Friday.  Also, keep in mind that is a half trading day so whatever you're going to do, do it before the earlier close!

JJC / Copper

Despite the epic beat down my puts have taken, I still believe in this one.  It's basically just gone back to double top (hopefully) off that very long term trend line and will make money going forward. 


The commercial net short has been very reliable in the other metals markets.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

There is more to Evolution than Just Evolution

Greg Mannarino sometimes references the 50 day moving average.  While it is included in the evolution system, there is no mention of what to look for with it.  Also based on his picks, he doesn't always seem to care what it's doing. 


Do you guys have an opinion on it? 


The characteristics I think are candidates to consider
Direction of the MA
If the current price is above or below the MA


I bought into PEP and NFLX based on the website money page.


PEP is blow the MA, and the MA is trending down
NFLX is above the MA, and the MA is trending up. 


Both are calls i.e. one moving into the MA, and one moving away from the MA.


No apparent rhyme or reason.


I suppose he could be considering it a resistance point, and with the one below the MA, there is a considerable gap, so it is not prescient resistance with either stock. 

SPX chart over the last 2 years

I'm not encouraging anybody to make a trade based on this chart.  I don't know that this is bearish at all, but, I have personally been looking for a bounce down, so this might be a good candidate for a price. 

I'm using the weekly just so I can fit it in better, since it goes back a long ways.

The most important thing is, you could have drawn a lot of lines since 2009 only to have them get broken.  



Required Reading

the "Reversal System" of Martin Armstrong


"Example: A trader could place an order to buy against a bearish reversal with a protective stop just below."


The fastest version of the story is that if you close beyond the reversal price, it will keep going, but until then, you are more likely to bounce off of it. 

The recent Arrays UPDATED

UPDATE!  With stocks turning south, I spoke too soon.  If it finishes down then it will make good on the daily array.


Also, still have to watch the dow for the weekly close. 


---------------


It appears the daily and weekly arrays for the Dow/S&P were not overly good this time :/

hmm, now the pre market trading is getting close to scratch for the open.  

Monday, November 21, 2016

11-21-16 SPX

If you recall from the Timing Array Mashup, the DAILY SPX extended through tomorrow.  It has today as a turning point, which I assume is a high, being that it's high.

I closed my shorts for a while but now am back in.  I was looking at this array last week.  I hoped that if stocks did indeed continue up, it would be minor.  It was not minor :P But we got a sell signal now on the 30 minute chart. 

We didn't have the 2 lines sell the open signal on Friday, and that signal was correct again.  I'll be looking for it for the close today.  If we don't get it, I might back out of my shorts.

It's at the tail end of the data, so I don't know how meaningful it is.  With the dow, today is the last day on the array, so we can't see tomorrows bar to know if today is a turning point. 

Also I'm on the verge of buying Polny's 3 turn dates. 




The Thinning

There's no reason to purge stupid people to improve the overall intelligence of the population. 

It wouldn't actually accomplish anything, as smart people already gravitate towards each other.  The difference is, will the dumb people be around in addition.

Here's the thing, they are already dead, if they get cut off of welfare.  If they wanted to do this, all they have to do is stop saving them day after day.  I'm not advocating that position, just pointing out the facts of the day.


GLD 11-21-16 and a comment on stocks

Martin Armstrong:

From the previous entry:

 "It elected a Weekly Bearish back at 1275 and now we approach two critical Weekly Bearish Reversals at 1201.50 and 1215.50. Electing both should confirm that gold is headed to new lows in 2017 and that should break the $1,000 barrier as the dollar still rallies."

From a new entry today:
"Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30.

The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at the 1270 level so only a weekly closing above that area will signal a recovery. Otherwise, we still see new lows ahead. We see this week as a reaction turning point and a choppy trend every two weeks."

SO, My understanding, and please comment if you think I'm reading this wrong.
He's referencing an array he thinks he has posted but I don't think he has.
When he uses reaction, he means a move that doesn't change the trend, which would be down.
Directional change doesn't mean exactly what it sounds like.  It's a vague event.  

This week is a turning point week in gold.

So gold should gain this week, but stay below 1270, maybe below 1231, and then continue back down next week, I suppose to that line below 1000 I posted recently.

I assume this is also his opinion on the stock price turning point?  A counter trend bounce that quickly fades.
 
UPDATE - So I'm going to go long for tomorrow and hope for the best. I think that it has a much greater than 50% to go up.  I might also grab some FXE based on the recent weekly array.  I think this also supports stocks going down for the week.

WOW I am wrong on everything to a comedic level

short SPX
short DB
Short GLD
Short GS
Long KO
Short JJC (copper)

I did get one right though, Long O

Saturday, November 19, 2016

The weekly close

Despite a turning point on the Weekly timing array, the Euro still finished into the bearish.  I don't know if Gold was in a turning point this week, but it too finished into the bearish. 

The dow is also on a turning point, and I don't know if it hit any bullish or bearish price levels.  Usually these are pretty far apart and I don't think we were overly close one way or the other.

So what does this mean for the rally?  Is it going to continue because the Euro and gold are still bearish?  That would also make the turning points (and the Evolution system) wrong about the upcoming week. 

Overall I stayed out of Gold and the Euro, but did the stock and JJC shorting.

Friday, November 18, 2016

Bo Polny is Back!















UPDATE 11-22 Bo has pushed his black ____day to Dec 6.  It looked like a stretch given his presentation.  I must also say though, that years ago someone also picked that day for this year. 

My subscription to this runs out in mid Jan and I probably won't renew.  I'll be paying attention to his youtubes (wich skepticism of course).  My general belief is that he is actually on the right track, but it's not perfected, and maybe it can't be perfected.

His argument that 2016 is some kind of crisis year is really good though.  I'm not saying I necessarily believe it, just that it's a well presented case.  


UPDATE - Jsnip4 has attacked Bo Polny and says his model is not very good.  While I won't quite go as far as to say the model is good, I usually say something like, it hits enough to be interesting.  He offered Jsnip4 his 3 remaining gold turn dates through the FOMC meeting in December in exchange for getting a fresh review from Jsnip4.  It is also true that Jsnip4 is an atheist and might not be overly enthused about a biblical timeline.  

So, I can buy it for 99 dollars, which I might do.  I think these dates will probably be correct.  He's often wrong or off on some lesser points, but on his high confidence picks, he usually nails it. 

Or I can probably guess that it's supposed to take off after FOMC.  There are two dates before that.  You have to buy by the 24th for the offer, Thursday, so maybe that is a turn date. 

OLD STUFF -------------------

I recommend at least watching this for discussion.  On his call for stock top on November 15, that is presently the high, although it has only been 2 days.  He said it would be a crash, but he also says at other times he doesn't really know the prices, just the dates and directions.  The Dow has made a major sell signal according to Evolution, and is just starting to expand downward.  The SPX is most of a sell signal, but the CMO is up.


I'm tempted by the no risk gold trial.  It's 99 dollars and if his dates are off you get your money back.   I'm not sure if I can before the close today though.


One way to look at it, is that 99 dollars isn't much compared to a losing trade.


He's mostly vague with promises in this one other than general collapse.  IMhO a collapse in the economy doesn't even mean the stock price will fall.  However since I'm already expecting stock price to fall, then I suppose it means I believe him.


As I'm writing this, Gold is still 7 dollars back from the price it needs to be to turn back up next week, according to Armstrong.  Also the Euro has backed off to 1.0594, short of the 1.0606 support line.  Of course it can easily reclaim that price, as it has fluctuated today.

So about that Gold

I'm out, actually I will probably short it for next week, pending a close below 1215, which Armstrong gives as a critical price.


But check this out:
This goes back to the all time high.  Obviously it could break, and obviously it will some day, but if it closes below the 1215, I'm assuming it will not break right now.


here is his image:



I think he's implying it will hit that green line at the bottom, and that will be the legitimate low and it will take off from there.  Maybe it will only take a few weeks to hit it, or maybe it will take 6 months.  The next major turning point on a quarterly level is 3Q 2017. 

Thursday, November 17, 2016

The NOB trade

Has anybody ever done this?  Do you need an account other than a regular brokerage account?

Ok, it costs 1500!

So, I'm a little skeptical.  How is this worth his time when he can make that much like every other day with his system?  When I started making money I pretty much shut everybody out who wasn't already in on my blog :P.

I haven't given up my day job yet, but if I did, and traded for money, why would I be training people? Compare it to Mannarino, who just asked for 20 some dollars, because he's making his money by trading, not selling stuff.

I'm not that into republicans but...

Actually I'm not even sure if I wanted Trump to win, other than the fact that I bet on him, not that he's not obviously superior to Clinton, just that it's too late and I don't think he can save the country. 


BUT for my amusement


I looked ahead at 2018.  8 republican seats available, and 25 democrat + independent democrat seats available.


9 are in trump states, with several others in states that Trump won negating fraud. 


Democrats are less likely to show up for mid terms, because Obama phones don't come from congress.


Only needing to pick up 8 seats to get 60, I think it's in the bag. 


The last time the republicans had this much sway, they passed medicare part D and tried to force through amnesty for illegals.


I think they will do better with Trump steering the party. 


If you could have 60 votes with McCain, or 59 votes, which do you prefer?

The DB post 11-17-16

A direct quote from Armstrong


"The timing Array in Deutsche Bank has been targeting September all along. There are back-to-back Directional Changes for September October and the next main target for a turning point is November. The Panic Cycle played out on time for September as well. This all warns that if last week’s low holds, a bounce into November becomes possible."


Obviously, we hit that low in September, and did rally into November.  We exceeded the 15.50 but never hit the 17.90 which he said was the maximum price it could hit.  If it did hit that, I'd feel a little better about shorting. 


There is a lot of November left, so I'm not sure if we've hit the turning point yet.  The weekly's usually turn between weeks, as do the dailies turn between days. 




But also look at this chart, this downtrend since 2013, along with the 50-week MA are converging, that seems like it would make for good resistance.






It also makes a sell signal on the daily chart. 





My plan for next week

This week wasn't very good, between failed end of the world predictions that suckered me in, and the election going the way I expected, but stocks not, long story short --- poop.  I've done quite well since Sept 7th, when I really started trading again though, and I have high hopes for next week.


The weekly arrays for both the Dow and the Euro, suggest this is a turning point and next week will take the opposite direction.


Copper, JJC, I expect to go down.


So these are my 3 trades, or some variation.  I might pile on some bank shorts.  I think maybe they have already peaked this week.


And instead of the Dow, I will be trading the SPX and/or the VXX, in the opposite direction (long VXX = short SPX)


I might be long some metals.  I'm going to look into it more, but I expect to find that it's a favorable time.  I know it's right about at the 600 day MA.


I think there is a lot of room to move in the direction I'm expecting for these, after they just spent 2 weeks going the opposite way. 






Thoughts on DB.
Overall I think DB is a good short candidate.  Is it better than the others?  I'm not sure.  I'll probably do a little because I think it has great potential to move far.


I dug into gold, and I'm sorry to say, it looks like gold is in for a really nasty fall, probably a new all time low, but that will be the final low.  With gold, you never really know, but that's just what it looks like from here.  It's high risk low reward at the moment.



An Alternative to the succession movements

California/Oregon is not the first succession movement in this Century.  Texas has also had them.


I see a much better alternative - Follow the constitution, and stop voting for federal usurpation of states powers.  Problem solved. 


It's pretty obvious that the president is too big of a deal right now.  It wasn't supposed to be this way.  Ideally your state government would have a much bigger role in your life than federal. 


Also, this map is stupid!  And it would suck to be a landlocked country, but it wouldn't be an insurmountable obstacle.



JJC - could be a big one

Smart money is net short, according to an article I read on Zero Hedge, and it bounced off of a trendline since 2011.  Also that was roughly the 600 day moving average, and it's a sell on Evolution.




Today has been an up day so far, but as far as I'm concerned, that just makes it sweeter. 


Banks are also up today after flashing a sell yesterday.  I think they're still a sell IMhO, but probably wait till close.


Overall I think stocks will have a fairly bad week next week.  Don't hold me to this start date for the downturn but I'm thinking Friday or Monday will be the last high before.  With stocks going down, I think JJC will go down even faster. 


At the very least, it's good diversity because it doesn't correlate that much with the rest of stocks.


ALSO - not worth it's own post, but I'm never trading DIA again.  It took for freaking EVER to make a trade.  If I do the index, it's always going to be SPX.  The trades are so fast, and despite the spread, you can always get a trade in the middle ground, unless you lag long enough for the price to change.



The Big Summary on What it Means to Be a Democrat

I must start out by disclosing, being a Republican does not automatically mean you are good, nor does it mean that none of these things apply to you.


THE PAST


In the beginning, people came to the United States to get people off their back and to succeed or die based on their own merits.  The pioneer or producer breed always sees opportunities to create value, and move to where these opportunities exist.  In human history there have always been these people, as well as those who beg or steal/attack for a living, which one could call the parasite breed. These people can recognize opportunities to live off of the work of others, and move to where this opportunity is.


These two groups of humans are not entirely separate species, which is why I'm choosing to call them breeds.  The distinction between the breeds is behavioral, not visual.  Additionally, they are a tribe or team, and that is very important to realize.  Much like criminal thieves, legal thieves have a much greater chance of success if they form a pack and outnumber those whom they wish to steal from.


A welfare parasite is not much different from a unabashed criminal, it's just that they have a different style to get their stealings.  I suppose the welfare parasite is better, in that they do what they perceive is more tolerable by the producers.  They can't claim they have permission from the producers, as removing their votes would see welfare abolished.


The pioneer breed will always be the first ones to a new location, and only after they have made it into a great success, the parasite breed will move in.  typically, the parasite breed comes from a bad situation, which has been over-sucked by them, which is why they have to move.  The pioneer class will be more attached to a specific location, because they have made it productive, and the parasite class will be more nomadic.


Because of the way they survive, pioneers are more patient, better at saving and investing, more truthful, while the parasites are the opposite. 


This will explain the cycle of nations, which is expressed in different ways


People are poor, and act like they are poor, saving everything and working hard, absence of parasites


People get rich, things are great, parasites haven't moved in yet, people still work hard


The parasites move in and start sucking, while the pioneers get careless and unvigilant because of their wealth, i.e. the country move to socialism


It all gets wrecked, the parasites die or move on, the pioneers rebuild, people are poor and act like it


This cycle is generally viewed as the attitudes of people in general, but one can't accurately ignore the migration part of it. 


The best way to sum up why the parasites exist, is that nature abhors a vacuum, and thus, there will be parasites where an opportunity exists.


THE PRESENT
We are in the stage where the hard workers have lost vigilance, and are letting the parasites run wild.  We have moved a great deal towards socialism, to the point where we were on the verge of destroying the country, and perhaps it is already destroyed beyond quick fixes.  We have two general kinds of parasites, welfare and corporate.  Democrat voters, being welfare parasites, are quick to realize that corporate parasites are threatening their host.  Republican voters were slow to see these corporate parasites, but have always been aware of welfare parasites.


Those who vote democrat without a (short-term) desire to suck welfare, probably want to be able to take it later, but will try the whole working thing as long as it's easy.


Another reason to vote democrat is a tribal loyalty, which comes from the limbic system, a primitive region of the brain, before the rational neo-cortex evolved on top of it.  The primitive parts of the brain were not replaced, just added to.  All human brains start at the same place as a reptile's.  Read a book called "Pitch Anything" to understand this phenomenon, highly recommended.


It is probably both the aforementioned factors that create democrat voters.  Why choose the parasite tribe if you want to live by your own work?


Trump was elected as an anti-parasite in hopes that there is still time.  I suspect there is not.  This is a freight train, and you can't just turn it around, especially with all the tracks going in the wrong direction. 


Socialism/Parasitism, destroys all countries that let it.


THE FUTURE
Don't expect a Democrat to ever see the error of their ways.  They will appear stupid, or blind to you, but I can't emphasize this enough, that is NOT the case.  They aren't stupid, they are just lying.  Their arguments are illogical because no amount of logic gets you to the conclusion that you should work for their benefit. 


So, their ways are not actually in error, they just aren't trying to do what they say they want to do.  They don't want to improve the economy with minimum wage hikes or welfare, they just want something for themselves. 


Instead of logical arguments, they love emotional arguments, by finding suffering victims (even though they will result in more suffering), and they love moral high ground arguments.  Think "Racist, Sexist, Biggot, Homophobe" and sometimes add a few more adjectives depending on the issues of the day. 


In fact, the only true argument a parasite will give you, is the fact that there are other parasites, such as the big banks.  Producers, in their own mental laziness, assume everything they say is a lie, and this actually prevents them from looking seriously into it.


The reason they support gun control is VERY simple.  They want your stuff, which they perceive as easier to get if you are unarmed.  They don't really rationalize it that way though, they just automatically respond to your ability to defend yourself as bad, as you are not in their tribe.  These people prefer strength in numbers, rather than individuals.


The existence of peripheral issues, like gay marriage or global warming, is a way to make politics about something other than stealing money from producers.


When I say it's probably too late to stop them, that's actually never the case.  We've already had a great deal of loss to them, and there will be more.  Where exactly it will stop is impossible to say this far out.  The events that everyone might associate with the "too late" is actually the cure.  Social security and medicare will collapse. 


Since they are destroying the entire world this time, they will have no place to move on to.  Ultimately, they are going to be their own cure.  As nearly a separate species, they have largely segregated themselves, and live in the big cities.  Such a geographical barrier to reproduction would be enough to constitute a separate species, if it were a complete barrier.


Some say the limitations of food are largely a myth right now, and it might be the case, but it's a distinction without a difference.  Either there will be a food shortage in the very near term, or a distribution problem.  These parasites, being in proximity to almost exclusively other parasites, will turn on each other for survival.


I suppose I am writing on a large time frame, so I can't guarantee how imminent this era will be, but based on the pressures we see building right now and certain statistical modeling I can find, it will be over by about 2032.  Basically, now is the best it's going to be for the next 16 years.







Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Something Big Tomorrow?



(daily chart)
The HUGE election expansion period is coming to an compressing end.  Based on the big expansion cycles early on this chart, the first one continued up, and then the next compression resulted in nothing for like a month. 

It seems like most of these compressions are also changes in the direction, but that certainly is not required, and might not even be true, since I don't have any numbers on that. 

It is apparent as of right now, that we will end with the buy-the-open signal that has been right the majority of the time, but double check it before the close.  Armstrong's timing array has today as a turning point on the Dow, which means a low, also implying a higher open.

It is bearish on Evolution though.  The Evolution signals seem to work much better on individual stocks.

Beyond today, this week should overall finish higher than the last one, and next week should finish lower than this one, based on the weekly timing array.


Kind of a screw job

I've noticed this on several trades.


Despite the stock going down .86% on the day, MRK put options for Dec 16 made a profit of 1 penny.  Aren't options supposed to have MORE action than the stock?  WTF?


PFE went down .36% by the time I'm writing this, and my puts actually LOST money for the day!  a 7.3% loss on the puts. 


Meanwhile, KO dropped much less than MRK, and I had calls, and they got killed. 



Most of the Banks are going Bearish

I looked at several individually, and they more or less look like this one.  I think they might finish the day up from here so I'm going to wait until the close to buy puts.  I think there is a good chance for stocks to finish up today and down tomorrow, so that makes me more confident.



Some hedged Evolution hits

Short
MMM
MRK
JJC
PFE (although the UO is a flat)




Long
KO
O
VZ
GLD (I personally did SLV despite GLD giving the better signal)


Most of these I've had for 1-2 days so I should have done this post when I got in :/


Predicting the overall market has not been going as well as your basic evolution picks.  


Mannarino is still long SBUX and INTC.  I suppose I can support those.  INTC is based mostly on the weekly chart being so bullish, so maybe wait until Friday, but SBUX looks good immediately.



Stocks for Tomorrow

Today is a turning point on the DOW.  Tomorrow should be the opposite action.  The signal is pretty clear.


Also on the S&P, today is not a turning point, but I don't think that means much.  Based on some other things I've read of his, a turning point is a solid signal for 2 days, and this is the second day.  So while it is not a turning point signal, it's not signaling that it isn't a turning point either.  It's just that there is no signal.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Weekly Data + One thing from the daily array

Without scrolling back too far, you can find the weekly arrays for the DOW and the Euro (FXE).


This week is a turning point for both instruments. 


The Dow has taken out it's high of last week, and the FXE has taken out last weeks low.


The turning point is either a closing or intraday (I assume for the weekly array it's a weekly closing, or intraweek)


Which means we could have hit the turning point on any of these up days.  There are also directional changes, which is interesting, considering how little action there has been this week so far, compared to last week.  The Euro even has a double sized bar.




I also want to point out some oft ignored stuff on this daily. If you look at Comp-2 on the S&P, today is the turning point, and if you look at Long term on the S&P, today is also the turning point.  Maybe I am trying to hard with this.  Nothing looks special on the Dow for today.




The Last Day of the Cycle

Based on the action so far, and the Timing Arrays, the trend of today should continue into tomorrow, making tomorrow an up day. 


It is the last day of the cycle, according to Bo Polny, and will be a crash day.  Now most of you know him, and consider him to be highly inaccurate.


In my assessment, Bo Polny is wrong most of the time on his minor calls, but when he is confident enough to do a youtube video, he is usually always right, and these are major calls.  He's put all his marbles into this call, so I am going to trust him one more time. 


If the market opens up, then I'm out forever.  He'll probably still get some things right, and I will keep monitoring him, but if this is a miss, we've got to expect him to be useless until proven otherwise.  Also, he's gotten back to the Nasdaq chart for this last call, and this index has been fitting his predictions the best of the major indeces.


Some of his calls are
The all time low in gold late last year, and that it will continue through the Spring
The June top
Sept 6th and 22nd were both fairly major tops
August 15 top
Dollar top on Pi (actually the day before, because Pi was a Saturday).  3.14.15 is still the all time high.


So as you can see, there is something to this.  The problem I suppose, is knowing which are the great calls of all time, and which are flat out wrong.


(Also on gold, he said it would never go below the 600 day MA again, where it currently rests, making it a buy if you're interested)


Here is the UUP dollar etf.  It might not match up 100% with the actual value of the dollar (like SLV to actual silver).  It had a nice down trend for a year and a half which was broken recently (can't stump the Trump) but remains a couple percent off the Pi High.


Please, share your thoughts if you have them :)

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Friday, November 11, 2016

MONDAY!!! 11-14-16 It's all coming together...

The first thing I want to say, is the read line, I thought unbreachable, was breached in a large manor.  We can see though, there was a lot of built up energy before it happened.  So the moral to this story is, nothing is perfect, but I do my best.

Now, this is the Dow, which hit a turning point today, which is obviously a high, the highest closing ever.  Now the panic cycle I believe, is to bounce off the junction of these two lines on Monday, and then it's off the the races.  I think Monday's action will be limited, and I can't even say what I think the S&P will do, it might finish up.  That is the 14th.

The 15-16 is the real crash, and it looks like the S&P will finish down on the 17th as well. 

The other thing to take note of, after a rally like that, you have to think stocks are overbought right? 

I can't really fit this into the weekly array that I've seen.  It said this week was not going to be significant.  I'm thinking my conspiracy theory is accurate.  They rigged the system to buy them a few days to position for a crash. 

Thursday, November 10, 2016

My specific plan for this week and next

UPDATE for Friday, before the close -
Dow is up as foretold.  I thought the S&P would be up also, but it's in that hard to read area because of the panic cycle.  I think the the S&P has one more up day, and it's over for the Dow.   So I'm going to be mostly neutral for Monday, probably with something hedged. 

Now, there is a panic cycle for Monday, so the Dow is really unpredictable. After Monday, it should go straight down for 2 days.  The S&P has a 3 day movement after whatever happens Monday, which I assume is a high, although that makes today's action unexplainable.


Tomorrow is a high confidence up day, I will be long fairly heavily


Most of these longs I will close out Friday before the close to free up day trade buying power for Monday.  Maybe I will be completely out of it by the close.  I'll look at my "predict the open" signal.


Monday - It looks like there will be a panic dip in the Dow, I will buy heavily, and it should finish up.  If it is a panic move upwards, then no big deal!  The point is that it will reverse from the initial move (if the panic cycle plays out)


I will close out and be short as much as possible Tues-Wed.  Close positions Wednesday late.  Bo Polny has Wednesday as a major crash day, which coincides with this array.


Get in long on Thursday with routine sized investments.  Hopefully I will be a millionaire by this day. 


This is all subject to change!  The only one I know for sure is the first one.  I'm not encouraging anyone to follow me.  This is mostly for me!  I think if I write down my plan, I will remember why I thought the way that I thought.


Let me know if you think I'm reading this right or wrong.






Note on Polny - he is far from perfect, but he's close enough to be interesting

Stocks today

Stay Frosty, Panic cycle happens today!  This is also a turning point, and not a turning point on the Dow, so it's hard to predict todays events.

My current thinking is that it will turn down and then turn back up by the close.  I wouldn't try to pick the down turn, but if it does happen I'll be looking to go long.


UPDATE #1 10:30 ET - WOW!  That escalated quickly.  The panic on the SPX was true, as it took out the high and low of the previous day, and the Dow hasn't taken out the low, and I assume won't. 


So the challenge is finding an entry point. 


Today is NOT a turning point for the dow, so it should go up again tomorrow morning.  SPX does turn tomorrow, but I think that turn will be off the low formed today.  It could be now or near the close.


Minor update - Maybe the low is in, but in my (limited) experience it's usually in the afternoon, and it will probably stay mostly flat until then. 

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Perhaps the stock price was illogical - conspiracy theory UPDATED 11-17-16

UPDATE!  Election week was not tabbed as a turning point week, and no such turning point took place.  The week before the election was, and it was a low.  I had trouble buying this, as I assumed a Trump win (which I expected) would be bearish for stocks.  However, the turning point low took place before the election, and indeed the election was not a turning point, so the weekly array for the DOW was right all along. 


Does this speak against all the conspiracy theories? 


Anyway, that's not important right now.  What's important is that this week is a turning point.  The bar for next week is almost non-existent, and I think that means there is almost no chance of a turning point, so this one will ride into the week after.  Usually they go into the Friday, but I say that after looking at not that many weekly turning points.






----------------------------OLD STUFF------------------------------


Leading up to the election, pro Hillary news was very good for stocks, and Trump news was very bad for stocks.  Ok, so draining the swamp is bad for stock prices, which are sort of a measure of corruption these days; that makes sense.


Trump wins, stocks go limit down.  Then bounce perfectly off that limit, and by the open they were essentially unchanged.  They fluctuated, then took off.


What's illogical is that a major even with so much buildup, is completely irrelevant.  Stocks go up both results? 


Also the nature of the early fluctuations, stop hunting back and forth?


Are they setting up a major crash in the near future?  It will probably be a liquidity driven flash crash, and not a for real 2008 moment, in my opinion.  I believe the hype, that low retail participation limits the crash.  This is Armstrong's explanation.  He goes on to say liquidity is far below the 2006 level.


In other words, did they save the market now, so they can get in position?  Maybe these lever-pullers were all long.


My best guess is, based on the timing arrays and Bo Polny, that the high will be the 11th or 14th.  My BEST guess is that the 14th starts up but finishes down, and ends on the 17th intraday.


Mannarino has a video out sort of in sync with this, saying this rally isn't real.



Here's a fun fact - biggest stock market rebound since... government intervention in 2008.



Breaking price action

The Dow has taken out the sept 22 price, which I previously thought was un breakable.


Sept 6th is still ahead, 6 dollars away, or about 0% (subject to change).  I won't maintain a claim that it is unbreakable anymore.  The price from 8-15 is the active all time high.  If it closes below the 9-22 price, that will be interesting.


It appears you can't Stump the Trump.



The Evolution Devotion: Deutsche Bank Antientgesellschaft for November 201...

UPDATE! I typed most of my new material onto the old post, so definitely click it to find the new stuff.


The Evolution Devotion: Deutsche Bank Antientgesellschaft for November 201...: With Sept being a LOW turning point, DB should go up for the month of October with November being the next major turning point.  I don&#...

Don't forget! DB high this month. It looks more significant than the Sept turning point low, due to the size of the bar.

I think I'll just watch for a daily Evolution sell signal


For visualizing the support resistance lines
de-y

Weekly Timing Array for the EURO/USD (FXE)

UPDATE!  Looking at the bottom chart, the line 1 target is 1.0606 Euros to the dollar.  It is currently at 1.0638 according to yahoo finance, and it's Thursday in a Turning point week.  SO! I think we will hit that 1.0606 target tomorrow, and that will be a major turning point that will last until the week of 11/28.  You can play this with the FXE.  If it doesn't hit the target tomorrow I'll probably get in anyway.  I suspect the following turning point will also be on one of the lines.  112 or 115 and change.

At about the same time, I did a weekly DOW.  The only line on that chart is quite a ways down from here.  I'm not going to do a separate post for it.  It looks about the same as far as turning points this week and the week after next (same as the two on the Euro).


The turning points are about the same as the Dow, at least in the near term.  After the week of 11/28, you can ride a 3 week trend.




Weekly Timing Array for the Dow.


This week was not supposed to be a turning point week (Armstrong economics).  I didn't know what to make of that, I assumed something big would happen despite the array.  So that means the week starting 11/14 is a major turning point week.  I'm not even going to guess if it's a high or low. 
 

Maybe the best way to decide is to watch this chart.  I didn't realize how steadily stocks have been declining.  So anyway, if the price hits 17283.68 next week then it looks like a buying opportunity. 




This day blows!

Despite being correct on the Trump win and seemingly playing it conservative, I got killed. 


I don't have much now.  It looks like the "3 day reaction" will be upwards.  I'm not going to go long, just going to wait until the turning point.  That is also vague, because the Dow said it would be Friday, and the S&P said Thursday (but with a Friday panic cycle)

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election 2016 periodically updated

Early on, Clinton is greatly beating polls in battle ground states, Trump is greatly beating polls in non battle ground states.  I hope it doesn't continue like this, and that it's short term sample anomalies.

It's laughable the speed they give states to Hillary, and how they drag their feet on giving anything to Trump.  They still haven't given him Georgia, even though it's 50 times more Trump than Colorado was Clinton.

Since they haven't given Washington to Hillary yet, I wonder if they know it's going Trump?

Nevada still 1% reporting.  That's fishy.

Wisc, Mich, and New Hampsh all leaning Trump.  

It looks like Wisconsin can be called for Trump, when I look at the counties.  I'm not a seasoned pro at this so my math could be wrong.  Looking at counties again, Michigan seems to go Clinton.  New Hampshire isn't predictable this way.

It looks like the Trump routes are New Hampshire+ Nevada, or just Wisconsin

Numbers to watch for the monthly close

"Our models show more of a reaction than a change changer. Just watch the 160150 level in the 30-year bond futures. A monthly closing below that level will signal the Bond Bubble has burst. In the Dow Jones Industrials, the number to watch will be a monthly closing below 17330. These are the numbers to pay attention to that would signal a change in trend mid-term. Meanwhile, a closing in gold on a monthly basis below 1242 will also signal a change in trend to the downside is likely."

From Armstrong Economics

Monday, November 7, 2016

The Hillary Anomaly Visualized


If interested, find Mannarino's video.  It's worth a listen IMhO.

The stock surge is greater in magnitude than the news it cancels out, that being a week or so ago that Comey announced they were re-opening the case.  That was the previous time the stock price touched the resistance line (solid blue). 


But look how bearish this still is
1) The bearish pink line is still on top of the orange one
2) This didn't start a new expansion cycle!  This is basically just a closure of the previous bearish expansion.
3)The price is now back below the biblical resistance line
4) currently below the moving average line, which is in about the same place.
5) A sell on the evolution 30 minute chart
6) This was supposed to be a turning point according to the timing array mashup

Getting a buy signal is unavoidable after a day like this, and I'm sure we will close with one, but I'm ignoring that.  Evolution doesn't really work after gigantic price swings.

So my conclusion here is that we haven't started a new trend, we are just wrapping up the old trend.  Of course the next trend might be different, but there is no evidence to suggest it.

I don't have a beat on Wednesday, but I'm going to be big short for Tuesday.  I think this current intraday trend will continue through the entirety of tomorrow, at which point I will probably get out completely or do a small bet with upside.

Why are they making the Hillary win so "obvious?"  They could make it neck and neck, which is how previous suspicious elections have been.  This looks like a set up to fool as many people as possible.


There you have it, stocks maxed out UPDATED! x2

NEW chart as of 13:15 PM

Got a sell signal on the 30 min chart.





They can go higher intraday.  If they don't go down considerably tomorrow, then I think Clinton must lose.

I could definitely see this hitting that dashed blue line (the line on top at the moment) before bouncing back down. 

With wikileaks, this market has a good chance to rapidly turn down without warning at any time today. 

The UPDATE! Now stocks have hit the dashed blue line, which is a fabulous turning point.  Consider the following beliefs I have

Stocks can't close above the 8-15 line
Today is a turning point
Wikileaks is making the boldest promise yet.



The winner of the election

With Wikileaks promising to destroy Hillary completely today, and stocks near the highest they can biblically be, this indicates a Trump win.  Stocks are predicted to go down tomorrow, favorable trump news is seemingly the only thing that will cause this, unless they just drift sideways.


Beyond tomorrow we don't know from Timing arrays, but I do know the dow can't cross 18200 on a close.  The election is supposed to be a 2-3 day reaction, and if it is upwards, that would be hard to accomplish without taking out 18200. 


I hope Assange gets some Freedom after this.  His only chance really is to bring down the entire establishment.


Factors
Early voting is very heavy among republicans, and not democrats
Clinton screwed Sanders voters, the way Romney screwed Paul, and paid for it.
Clinton has Romney's enthusiasm at rallies,  Trump has Obama's
Trump has a Yuge lead among people to respond as independents
Polls admit they count democrat responses more, and they are matching the 2012 result (illogical)
Brexit is a similar vote, and the anti establishment won
Stocks have more room to fall than rise
Martin Armstrong's model predicts Trump will win the popular vote and get the most votes ever








Clinton might steal it

Julien Assange (wikileaks) is not an American Hero!

Because he isn't American lolz, which also makes him exempt from treason charges.  But he definitely is a hero, and he definitely has been accused of treason.  In order to get out the truth, his consequences have been that he is forced to live in an embassy.  He says he never sees the sunlight anymore.  He's been separated from his kids.

There is no end in sight for him.  Maybe Trump would get him off the hook somehow, but according to Assange, a Trump win is not going to be allowed.






The tweet about destroying Hillary by @wikileaks was fake!  Jeez Bill Still.  I'm not sure what prompted me to check.

I have a case of the mondays (but this post is serious) (Now with chart)

I closed my calls one darn day too soon :P.  They'd have made so much money today.

Socks are currently around 18050 on the DJIA, and that should be limited to 18200 by the close.

Today is a turning point, so tomorrow should be a down day.  Almost to the line.  As you can see it can get above the line briefly.  It once hit about 50 points above on an intraday high. 


Sunday, November 6, 2016

Bo Polny, for the sort of last time


This sort of works.  It's hard to read.  I think if this video is correct, there will be a low on Friday (implying Trump) and the next day starts out upwards, but hits a panic cycle and turns down, and has a new turning point low on the 16th.  The two indexes diverge for a day on the 17th.  Not sure what that entails.

In the meantime, I'm expecting the 8th to be the opposite of the 9th!

Also, I'm not counting Hillary out.  

Friday, November 4, 2016

new thing out claiming NBC accidentally posted election results early

I don't buy this at all.  They won't steal Texas as they do on that image.  That is just Ludacris. 


I'm pretty sure I've seen stories like this for past elections too, but they haven't amounted to anything.


It could be a sample image or something to sell their software.  Who knows. 

Got it, Consolidated Arrays UPDATED 11-5-16

UPDATE 11-10-16.  Somehow, today played out exactly as it says in the arrays, with S&P hitting a turning point panic cycle, and the dow not.  Seperately, both of these point to a higher open tomorrow, (SPX reverses off the low, and Dow continues the uptrend)

Now, for Monday the 14th.  SPX hits a turning point high and drops through the opening on the 18th.  The Dow appears to open Monday lower, and hits a panic cycle.  It gets a bit hairy in this area, but the following turning point is the 16th, which I have to guess is a low (continued from the drop on the 15th).  Perhaps this panic cycle isn't a reversal, but just a capitulation, which he says can happen when he defines panic cycle.  That makes more sense.

The weekly is hard to interpret, saying this week is not a turning point, but next week is, along with a directional change.  Although after this week, we get a nice purple bar, a continuation of whatever we end the week with.

Note - the original post isn't very accurate in terms of up/down days, but it's mostly good on the turning points, other than the election.  Literally nothing can stump the Trump.  Also the Comey announcement sent the markets crazy. 

***Original post***
This should be the most viewed post I've done so far!  Anyway with today (currently) finishing down, then it looks like we have one more down day.  This is still low confidence.  The next high confidence play is to take the opposite of Monday's action.

My goal is to figure out how these are both right.


I have them staggered a bit to line up the days.  They came out on different days.  One mistake can switch everything downstream, and the odds of me nailing all this perfectly are nearly zero. 

Most of the discrepancies occur around panic cycles. 

11/4: Today
11/7: Monday: A turning point on both systems.  I suspect this is a continuation of today, so an Up day.  If it is a down day, then it just makes the downstream predictions flip.  This is a low confidence prediction day.  There will be a high probably near the close.
Of note, Bo Polny things this day will be an epic collapse day (but he's had a few of these)  Armstong mentioned they might push the market down to scare people away from Trump.  Hmm, didn't work in 2008.  Market slide favors change I think.  Up protects Hillary.

11/8: High confidence, a down day.  Seemingly fairly large. (reversed if 11/7 is reversed)
11/9: A VERY low confidence day, but I'm thinking down.
11/10: A continuation.  The S&P hits a panic cycle, and turns up.  High confidence
11/11: The up on S&P reverses, and the dow continues down, so a Down day. High confidence

11/14: Starts up and finished down
11/15: An Up day
11/16: Up
11/17: flat (one up one down)
11/18 Down

11/21 Down
11/22 Up

If we finish this day strong and with a buy signal then I'll be a little bit long.  Otherwise nothing.


A new timing array / election post

Full article!


sp500-for-d-11-4-2016


He gives some if/the prices, but it would take a major intraday 2% selloff to reach any of them.  This is interesting, being that it's different from the DOW array (this is the S&P array)


It may end up playing out similarly, because the Panic cycle messes with things. 


So will it be a 2 day reaction or 3?  Brexit was a 2 day slide, and I assume a panic cycle.  This could play out very similar to that. 


Purple days are probably the safest.  What I see from this, is find a turning point on the 7th (which maybe at the close or intraday) and expect the opposite for 11/8. 


It kinda looks like if Stocks finish at a high on Monday, they will finish at a low on Thursday, implying a Trump win.  If they finish low on Monday then a high on Thursday, implying a Clinton win. 


The turning point on 11/14 should be ridden for the following 3 days.


It would be nice if he really explained how to read these things.  Next year I will shell out the 2000 to attend his conference.


Stay tuned, I'm going to do a correlation of the 2 arrays.  They are more similar than they appear at first glance.