Monday, October 31, 2016

Stocks for tomorrow

Not an obvious call.  Compression lines are bearish, but with Evo looking mostly bullish, but not quite a buy, I'm calling this a no signal.


It's going to end the day compressed, so the opening might be explosive, but which way??!?!!??!


So, I'm short but mostly flexible.  If it hits the 8-15 line, you'll know what I'll be doing, because I've probably talked about that line 20 times.


Side note, I lost money today!  Mostly because of a fat finger mistake.  I meant to buy put options with a week, but instead I realized at some point today, they were expiring today!  So that sucked.  It could have been worse.


Also in a new poll, Hillary is ahead, except Trump is really ahead +5 before the BS weighting.  Some weighting is defensible, but not this much.  There is actually a poll that gives Trump +4. 


If 3rd parties get like 5-7% of the vote, I could see the rest going like 52-46 Trump.  It could be a huge beating.  To people who have been believing the polls, it will probably look like Putin hacked it!



10-31-16 Stocks today +UPDATED twice

Update#2 - With the new bars, redrawing the chart gives you an ascending wedge, which is actually even more bearish.  It looks like it will max out by 2:00 Eastern.

UPDATE - after going up a little bit, Stocks are compressing.  Compressions are possible turning points.  During the compression there is usually much less price movement than during an expansion.  A pennant is basically a compression by another name, as the bars are getting less volatile.  The price is still well off the moving average and 8-15 resistance line.

This is what I think has been happening and is about to happen.  Volume is decreasing as we approach the end of this, which is bearish. 
As I've started this blog entry, it does seem to be breaking upwards.

I'm at a small initial position, and will get larger if it hits that 1500 minute moving average.  Look at that nice clean bounce off of it yesterday. 

This line also roughly matches the August 15 resistance line, so it's quite formidable.




Some Numbers from Martin Armstrong.

Our model says we are headed down anyway. But if Hillary is elected, the magnitude of that decline may be much worse than expected.

We have almost a perfect Double Monthly Bearish Reversal in the Dow Jones Industrial Index at the 17330 level and a Bullish standing at 18625.

In gold we have a Monthly Bearish Reversal at 1242 and a Minor Bullish at 1306.

In Crude Oil, we have 4933 coming into play for the closing of October. (It doesn't say if it's bearish or bullish.)

We have interest rates that appear to be getting ready to lift off after a 5,000 year historic low. Keep in mind, that a collapse in confidence of government will cause more and more people to shun government bonds and hoard even more cash.

OK, how to use these numbers, which we look at for the end of the day Monday the 31st (end of month)

A reversal is basically a major support or resistance line.  Most of the time, the price bounces off of these.  He once advised, when the price hits these, take up a position in the opposite direction, with a stop on the other side. 

If it closes the month past the reversal, then I think the implication is that it will continue in that direction.  If it overshoots the reversal, then it is likely to come back to the reversal, but will not come back beyond that.

These are general tips I've read.  I'm not a pro at trading his reversal numbers.

Right now I'm a little bit short.  Mostly I'm just playing that descending line from 8-15, 9-7, 22 that I have posted many times.  If it hits that again I'll be big short.  If it crashes, I'll look to 17330 as a likely stopping point. 

On gold, he recently said 1275 was a limit.  If it hits 1306 without going over, I'll go big short probably.  If it hits 1242, I'll go long.  

We are a dollar away from that oil price, if it hits it, I'll put some mental effort into it.  Until then, no effort.

How to read a poll (these days)

The poll in question

This is a tracking poll, and I think it will be updated each day, so the exact numbers will change.  I'll doing it with the numbers I have right now. 

Stated result
Hillary 44.1, Trump 41.6, the rest/undecided 14.3

Step 1) the true part

Among democrats
Hillary 86, Trump 6, the rest/undecided 8
Among republicans
Hillary 6, Trump 84, the rest/undecided 11
Among independents polled
Hillary 33, Trump 43, the rest/undecided 23

Of the rest, Johnson leads Stein about 2.5:1



Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 335 Democrats/375 Republicans/312 Independents; (Weighted) 379/311/322. Results in table above are based on weighted sample. 

Did you catch that?  Despite probably trying to poll more democrats, they ended up with more republicans, and ended up "weighing" the data to count the democrat votes more.  That's what weighing means.  There is no explanation for why they chose this weighing.

So the ACTUAL poll results (unweighted)
Party Votes For Clinton For Trump Other
Democrat 335 288 20 27
Republican 375 23 315 38
Independent 312 106 137 69
Total 1022 417 472 133
as a percent 100 40.8 46.2 13.0
This is a 5.4% lead for Trump.  
If you weigh to the actual party affiliations in the country:
 
Party Votes For Clinton For Trump Other
Democrat 307 264 18 25
Republican 266 16 223 27
Independent 449 153 198 99
Total 1022 433 439 150
as a percent 100 42.3 43.0 14.7
Then when you factor in enthusiasm (likelihood to vote) you probably end up closer to the first poll.  So a Clinton +4 is actually a win for Trump.
 




























































Sunday, October 30, 2016

No freaking way, Earthquake in Italy

A major earthquake in Italy just a few hours! after I read a prediction for it.  The prediction was not in the impending hours, but in the near future.

The original prediction was made on the 28th, it appears.

Reviewing this blog, excluding Evolution picks

I evolved away from evolution pretty fast, although I still use it, but in a way that is barely recognizable from the original intent.  I reviewed a bunch of evolution hits a while ago, and they were probably 90% successful.  That was largely before the choppiness of the last month+.  I suspect it's been a bit less accurate, or at least less timely, but probably still mostly right.

Evolution wasn't my work, and what I'm really reviewing is me! If you just want the conclusion, skip to the end.

I said go short the morning of sept 7th, which made a ton of money.  I'd just started and more than doubled my money within a week.  A spectacular hit.  The 7th wasn't huge, but the 3 day slide was good.

Sept 9, the Friday after the previous pick, I said, midday, stocks are still bearish.  They slid through Monday.  I made a joke about DB, I'm assuming everybody realized I wasn't going long. 

This is a complex one :P  It looks like I was  trying to find an intraday bottom on sept 13.  Before the compression system was out.  I think It was ultimately correct. I don't know if I made money, but stocks did rally into the next day.  

My introduction of the concept of the 1500 minute moving average (50 x 30 minute chart)  I wasnt' saying much, so this is mostly not scorable.  I think it's useful to at least look at.

Here's the scorecard for evolution until I stopped keeping track

I took on a Mannarino video here.  He was right, and I just said wait.  It's sort of continued here.
While I was right in the immediate short term, stocks went down for a while, I thought it would continue down the next day, but it went up.

I got this one right, predicting stocks to go down the next day.

Here was an epic call, for a high on sept 21-22, with a big drop after, which lasted 3 days.  I suspect I talked about this a lot, so I'm not going to link to all of the posts on this day.  I talk about some other dates farther in the future, and I think they were correct also, but it was too far in advance to be concrete.  Here is one immediately before the day.

Didn't like miners here.  They ended up flat the next day, so this is a non event.

This was true, but it was a pretty minor move.

This was for the 24th, sort of a continuation of the high on the 22nd.  Said the bigger drop would be 24th not 23rd.

Talked about the long term trend being bullish from sept 7th

Predicted a rebound the following Tues-Wed after the fed meeting.

Completely nailed Sept 30th.

I'm not going to do every single jig I predicted here, but the nearest, other than the up day on the 30th above, I also called for a low on Oct 4th, which came true in a big way.  Reaffirmed on the 3rd before the close.

This intraday call was correct, Stocks had just hit their low for the day

.DB to move up through Oct, nailed it.  Major turning point comes in Nov.

A gold sell hit, huge.  That was the 1st post about it.  Here is the post the day before when I said I will short when evolution says to, which was at that very moment.

Nailed  a major low on the 10th, said the next was the 12th after a 1 day rebound.  The low ended up being at the open on the 13th.  I'm not going to call this one right or wrong.  

Advised against Mannarinos buy call.  This was correct but I was sort of hit and miss on the week so I'm just going to mention that and leave this as a wash.

Then brings us up to the new system I started using.  I'm going to end it here, I'm getting worn out from this article!  I'll do a part 2 which does the 2nd half of Oct.  










Saturday, October 29, 2016

Monday's open

I'm confident in further declines this week, but I'm not confident either way on the open.

So I'm basically going big short as soon as it opens.  At the moment I'm a little short.

I don't have a solid selling point in mind.  Maybe at some Armstrong targets, one is like 17300, and the other one is around 17,800 (for the DOW).  The time will also be important.  I trade SPX because it's easier.

I probably won't bank on a turnaround at that lower line where it turned around on Friday.  That was just a dead cat bounce.  I will probably look for 2-3 half hour blocks at a steady price to guess that it might be turning around.

If it hits the upper line that I posted about previously (connects highs 8-15, 9-7, 9-22, and others), I might even go all in.  It broke that upper line for about 2 hours intraday once.  That line has been rock steady, while the support lines look like they are about to give.

I will certainly post when I sell.

If it opens lower, I suppose I'll go short, but not huge.


I meant to grab a daily chart.  Oh well.  If we are "watching the bond market" It's a sell both on this and on the daily.  I don't know if these are supposed to trade together or not, I think the answer is sometimes.  In the near term, bonds selling off raises rates which put pressure on stocks, according to Mannarino. 

Friday, October 28, 2016

The week ahead

It looks like Monday will be the low, with a recovery through the 7th, the day before the election. 

This is pending more evidence as we get closer, but I think I will be going solidly short the 7th before the close. 

As far as Monday goes - the 2 lines thingy did in fact, end up as a sell.  Evo is entirely mixed, making this a medium to low confidence signal.  Whatever the open, Monday should finish down.  Be especially watchful of a touch on that overhead line that connects sept 7 and 22, with August 15 and many other days (on the DOW)


10-28-16 Stocks for the open

It looks like the signal will be up.  I can't hang around until the close today :( and I will be leaving shortly.  It would take a lot of movement in this last 30 min to shake the current signal. 


If stocks do indeed open up, watch out for that line I posted about!  You can see it in the ALERT post, which was several posts ago today.  We also hit that bottom line and stayed in that wedge I made.  When that breaks it could be epic. 


Really wish we had a daily timing array for the dow.  We got 3 last month, and will likely get none this month, being that it is almost over.  Still, we have that weekly, which gives us a turning point next week.  Probably a low.  This turning point could be the breakdown from that wedge in the Alert post!  It might be on Monday.

How to play a potential black _____day

Options contracts do not work as a percentage gain or loss.  It's based on the price of the share, and the number of shares you have an option for.  This is becoming entirely impossible for me to explain, so I'm just going to hope you get it. 


If you go all in thinking there might be a black Monday, you might lose a lot.  Even if you have a chance to make 50x your investment, Losing 1X your investment will take you out of the game completely (if you went all in).


So how can you put yourself in a position to make a lot of money from a black day, but not get wiped out if you are wrong?  Remember if you think it will be a black day, like say a 3% move, you are taking a longshot, because these are extremely rare. 


For maximum gain, you want lots of options, which means you need them to be cheap.  That can be achieved by going out of the money or very short term.


For minimum risk you want to go very long term, as a long term option is not greatly affected by an average day up or down. 


It will however, at some point, be greatly affected, if the price movement is high enough. 


The conclusion is, go far into the future, and to get the contracts, go far out of the money.  Not so far that you have a large percentage spread in the bid ask, or no volume.  I don't know what the ideal option would be.  I'm thinking something like this:


Go in deep, 12 months out, 5-10 clicks out of the money, and on VXX not SPX.  I think a 10% drop in SPX would be something like a doubling of VXX.  I'm not saying this is the exact trade I would make, but something very similar.  Maybe I will get greedy and go 6 months out? 


If I go June 2017, 8 strikes out of the money, and VXX loses 1.00 (3%) I'd be out like 4%.  If VXX Gains 1.00, I'd make about that much.  If VXX gains say 10.00, I'd make 60%, and if it gains 20, then I'd make like 200% (triple).  It's an exponential thing, which is why you make a lot still on a black day, but lose very little if you are wrong.  Still, you would want to have a very good reason to believe it's possible. 


The investment may end up costing a lot of money, but most of that money is not actually at risk. 


I'm not saying Monday is a candidate "Black Monday" or not. 


But at the moment, I'm just planning on making a routine, play the open, pending getting a signal.





Today in review

After predicting a lower open, which came true to a minimum extent, I got out just a little.  Almost everything I held onto as stocks gained up to the point I issued an alert.  They hung there for a long time before finally crashing in a large manor.  It hit the lower line in my alert post, at which time I closed almost everything. 


So that's where I am right now.  It might go way lower, in which case I will miss out on a lot.


Here's the alert post


Stocks are still mostly at the low, so if you want to copy cat me you can get out when I did still.

analysis of polls

The conclusion of this post is pro Trump, but that is not an indication of bias.  I am reacting to news that I think is incorrect, and I'm trying to correct it. 


Trump is actually ahead in one, and I'm screenshotting this because they might remove it later for being too Trumpy. 






The second set of polls are the same polls, with older (weekend focused) polls removed.  Weekend polling is known to favor democrats.  Now that I'm writing this, I'm not sure it's overly important.  Oh well.


I picked out the ABC news tracking poll randomly.  In the 4-way race it has Clinton +4.  It discloses the following if you read enough "Partisan divisions are 37-28-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."


From gallop.com in January, I find this:42% identify as independents, 29% as Democrats, 26% as Republicans


Which means that the 9 point lead of D to R in the sample (that they achieved on purpose) is a 3 point lead in reality, and docking 6 points from the +4 Clinton gets, winds up as a +2 for Trump.  That math is an oversimplification of course, but if looks like the true winner of this poll is indeed Trump.  I went ahead and did the same math for the first poll (Clinton +3) and weighing it back to reality, I get Trump +.2%, in a 4 way race. 


I suspect Trump will have an easier time getting last minute votes from Gary Johnson than will Hillary. 


I'm not cheerleading Trump, I'm just telling it like I see it. 

NEW RULE! For me, not you

From now on, if I edit something, I'm going to put a + in the title each time. 


For example, if I updated this post, it would be


NEW RULE!  For me, not you +


and if I do it again, I'll use ++ and so on. 


Or maybe I will put them at the beginning of the title

++ ALERT! I either have brains or balls or both Updatedx2 ++

hopefully both, but this chart says short.  I trust it, and I have made a lot of money on this line so far.  That doesn't prove it will continue though!




Extra comment: This line is supported by the hidden message dates 9-7 and 9-23.  Probably more that I never found.

The line is the downward sloping line with touches at 8-15, 9-6/7, 9-22, and a few more. 





10-28-16 (updated to include shiny chart)

The market opened down as signaled, but I suspect, if you were short like I was, you probably didn't get out in time.  At the moment I'm still in. 


Looking at compression, SPX was expanding into the close, and thus this up bar this morning is a contraction. 


We certainly didn't get the black Friday that was on the table. 




And Gee, thanks for some crummy stock picks Mannarino!  I know, it's too early to give up on them.  I'm just complaining for fun.


Looking at this, I think I'm inclined to hold.  The green arrow means nothing if it's the most recent bar or 2.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

I think this is a good video from Mannarino

UPDATE: This is about as strong a sell as you can get.  In fact, so strong a signal, that I'm skeptical!  Still playing it though.  I hope it works out.

It's not something I understand well enough to explain.

He says the bond market sell off, which I predicted, will cause a stock market sell off.  This video is coming out the day before Polny is saying there will be a major sell off tomorrow.  This also jives with the weekly array of the dow, which will hit no turning point this week, which is a down week.  It should hit a pivot next week, and Polny says a low on Monday, so they are perfectly in sync.

That turning point should start a rally until the week of 11/14, although the intraweek high could be sooner.  It should close higher for 2 weeks.

Also keep in mind, that confidence is more important than interest rates, so at some point the lowness of rates will not matter.

I don't know if I drew that upper line correctly, I just matched the slope's mirror image and started it from the high.

It's actually bullish here at the moment, but I think it's probably going to stay about the same through the close.  Also, the lines just crossed bearish on the other system.

Of course, dont' forget where the turning point high was for today.

There are 3 bars left.  I will be watching them.

If it's a sell signal, I probably won't post a new thread, you'll know what I think already.  If it's a buy signal, on both systems, I guess I'll have to close everything.


Does anybody use Ichimoku Cloud?

I read how it's supposed to work, but I don't really pay attention to it. 

If below the cloud is bearish, and above the cloud is bullish, then how does it ever get back into the cloud?

stocks for the next few days

The biblical calendar, if correctly interpreted, has a major down day tomorrow, probably gapping down at the open, with the low on Monday.  How low, we don't know.  I believe there is a biblical calendar, it's just a question of figuring out what it is, which I'm sure, is hard.

So, I'm just going short throughout the day, adding to it. 

I think it's very important to be able to add to your position if it goes against you.  Mannarino has done the before but he usually says not to do it.  If you listen to him long enough, you'll know he has no hard rules, just most-of-the-time rules, but they all have to be broken once in a while.

In this case the trade isn't going against me, I'm just going short to make sure I don't miss the opportunity, but I'm well aware it might get up near the day's high.  I think getting back up to the 50x 30 minute moving average has a decent chance of occuring.  

Still, if the closing signal says buy at the open, I'll have to rethink myself.  If I'm right, the signal should agree with me. 




Time to short gold?

Like most of you are yourselves, and like you'd probably have guessed about me, I'm generally in favor of metals.

So if I say it's a time to short, then I do so begrudgingly, only because I genuinely believe it.  If you have an emotional reaction to this, you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Martin Armstrong is generally short through the rest of this year, into either 1st or second quarter next year.  I think we can all admit, it's capable of going down when we fundamentally believe it should go up.

So it's not an official sell until the CMO is down, but I was reviewing some old armstrong stuff, and he has 1275 as the cap of resistance going forward.  We hit that recently and are fairly close to it now.

Last time I bought GLD puts I doubled my money 2 days later.

I'm tempted to buy Bo Polny's report, for some additional info, but it's 800 per month for turn dates.  His stock report was only 200 for 6 months.  I did buy that one, and I'm glad I did.

While expecting a stock crash the next few days, it's easy to see GLD just going the same way at first.

I see this as a good opportunity for diversification.  I'd hate to go all in on stocks and have it be wrong.


I think a double bottom might be a good prediction.  Maybe not quite to the same price, but to maybe the same 200 day moving average.

DOES ANYBODY KNOW HOW TO TURN OFF THOSE ALERTS ON ACTIVE TRADER PRO?!?!!?!?!?!?

So annoying.  Those little pop up news messages.

It seems to be working.  See comment #2 here

Guess where stocks bounced off of today

I should have been ready for this!!  I thought we were farther away and this wouldn't come into play.  A perfect time to go short.

At the moment I'm hoping it will get up to something again and give me another chance to sell.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

10-26-16 Stocks for tomorrow

At the moment, with over 20 minutes left, it's a buy, actually on evo and compression.  It doesn't match up with what I was personally expecting, but when that affects me, it's always for the worse. 


So I think the most likely scenario is an open UP, and shortly after (30 minutes?) it will start to move down. 


I can't go as far as to call this a high confidence call, since I wasn't expecting it, but I'll go with a medium confidence.  When Evo and Compression matches, it was only wrong once, I forgot how many times it was right.  Probably at least 10. 


The lines are pretty close on compression, but the distance usually doesn't seem to mean anything. 


If we do indeed get the open up, watch for a quick turnaround (30 minutes in?)


Also I think this time, there could be a pretty sizable drop lasting until Monday. 


If you are wondering, I ended up with a small long position.  Don't consider me an expert though, really I'm just like you guys!  But honestly, does being an "expert" really make you an expert?  I'm pretty sure it doesn't. 


If you want my credentials, I started an account sept 7 and it has made about 200% returns (tripled) and the other account was started sept 22 and has more than doubled. 

Primer on playing tomorrow's open

Today's action is cray cray.  I was hoping it would go up most of the day and be apparently turning down again for tomorrow.  Instead shoot up, then shoot down again.  What's next? 


dancing baboons probably.



It looks like a decent time to probably go back short but I have a thing soon so I don't want to lose ridiculous amounts of money without watching.  This is a low confidence thing.  It could easily be turning back up, into a short lived consolidating wedge.  I think it's very unlikely I do anything until about 15 minutes to close.


I wish Armstrong would gift us another daily timing array.  We still have the weekly, which to me, suggests we will hit a turning point low next week. 

Nailed it

Did anybody else short the open?


I can't tell you what to do, but I've been pretty good, but then again, there is always the translation thing.  Like did I clearly describe what I thought would happen?  And was it timed properly?  I will try again to predict the open shortly before the close.  Probably in the last 15 minutes.  If I do it too soon, the indicators might change.


Did you believe the whole thing or just part?  I said that usually 30 minutes in is a good time to close when you are playing the open.  I'm out at the moment, and did very well. 


We'll get another chance every day! 


Also, shorting ief was a nail.  Metals are still up from my post!  I'm not sure if it's still a hold or not.  I didn't buy in at the time, so I don't have an opinion.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

I like this right now (IEF) (BONDS) (OPPOSITE OF LIKE)




We're a UO short of a sell signal, but we had a sell signal yesterday.  I'd not close the position if I got short then.


Lines converged, below the lines, compressed, ready to expand.  I'll consider shorting this tomorrow morning, but I might back out pending where the open is.  There have been a number of days when the price action on this was crazy. 

I'm conflicted on selling this after 30 minutes into the day, but I think I will stick with that plan.  

Adsense Denied!

I think I'm going to let it go.  I'm not sure why, and my curiosity is annoying. But honestly I think we are better off without the attention.  I'll just log for log's sake.  I do none of the things that beget a rejection. 


If my blog deserves the traffic, I will have to make money with my predictions, in which case I won't need the ad money anyway.


I wonder if it's because I made some Trump posts lol. 

I think I have a beat on stocks for tomorrow



This is a sell the open signal.  If you missed my study results, the best time to close the position is about 30 minutes into the day.  Of course it varies, but that result happened often enough to merit a mention.

Evolution is mostly bearish but not a sell. 

I don't try to show off that I have something figured out, when I make a conclusion, it is for the sole purpose of making money.  If I ever seem biased, it's just because sometimes I do have a bias based on which way I think things will go, so my confidence will vary sometimes with the same looking signal. 

Anyway... Today is essentially last Thursday, almost to a scary extent.  The mid day rally was a bit higher on Thursday, but largely identical otherwise.  Also, it's an opposite of Friday.

And of course, I am thinking of other things too...
The weekly timing array from Armstrong economics has this as a down week (I think), meaning it will close below last week.  Also this week should be a turning point low, with next week recovering which coincides roughly with the election.  Election week, I think it turns down again. 

This also coincides with Bo Polny's predictions. 

And don't forget!  This current downtrend started by hitting that line I posted about on Monday 10-24.  Now the price action shot down to the 1500 minute moving average (50-30 minute) and I think can have a violent break of that at the open.

Views and comments

For the most part, I'm just doing this for myself.  I think it helps me focus on figuring things out.


Initially I started promoting it by linking here from elsewhere, but I mostly don't do that anymore because honest, I don't want too many people to know about it!


Having said that, I don't want to get rid of any of you and I appreciate comments. 


Maybe if they ever approve me for ad money, I'll pimp it more.

The 1500 minute moving average?

Actually it's the "50 day moving average" but on the 30 minute time scale.





I know I've posted this before, but I'm redoing it just to keep myself honest.


It is very rare for this pink dashed line to breech intraday. 


It can break, and in spectacular fashion, on high volatility days.
It can bounce off
It can breech slightly and then recover


So ultimately, I don't know how usable it is.  It might be most useful to predict a larger move at tomorrow's open, if it is close to the line and you think it's going to cross.  It is QUITE capable of crossing that line at the open.


So if it hugs this all day, I think it will breech it in a significant way tomorrow, but I don't know how to use it for the rest of this day.  If it hugs it all day then there won't be enough movement to justify a trade.







One way that polls are rigged

"Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election."


This poll gave Hillary a +1 over Trump.


What this means is, they take a poll.  Then they change it to match the party affiliations of 2012, which was won by democrats.  Republicans didn't show up as much, because Romney was horrific, and democrats turned out above average, because it was fashionable to vote for Obama, and liberals love to be fashionable.


Hillary doesn't have that enthusiasm, she gets minimal crowds (like Romney did) and screwed Bernie Supporters (like Romney did to Paul supporters)


If they were trying to be accurate, they'd have used a multiple election sample to "align" the poll results too, or just use the actual poll results. 


I do believe the polls are rigged even beyond this, i.e. take polls more from cities, or more on weekends, things that favor Clinton.  This is just the one they admit. 


Why are they rigging the polls?  Either to depress Trump support or maybe blame Putin for hacking it in hindsight.  Or, can they just dial up whatever result they want in the votes?  I don't think that is the case, if so they wouldn't be busing people around. 


I'm not going to pick one candidates supported platform over the other, but I will say Trump is not a hunchback, evil, murderous, establishment-owned stooge, and he's actually less scandalous sexually than Hillary, but don't expect coverage on that.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Wow, poll data retroactively changed 10-24-16


When I looked at this yesterday, there was one recent poll that had Trump up 1.  I don't remember the name.  I don't think it's been changed, it's been omitted, because I think I remember those other polls up there at the time. 

Laughable accounting of the deficit

The deficit is the amount of money we spent, but didn't have, for the country, for the year.  The debt is the total amount of money we owe, which, by definition, is the sum of all deficits.

Basically, the deficit is 1 year of debt.

OK, so the deficit is .59 Trillion.
The debt held by the public, is lower than the total debt, because some of it doesn't count.  They only borrowed it from social security, which has no hope of ever paying it back.

No if you check the treasury direct website:
Debt held by the public 10/1/16 was 13.06 trillion, and at the end of the fiscal year,
Debt held by the public 9-30-16 was 14.17 trillion. 

So the actual deficit is 1.11 trillion. 

Then if you look at the total debt outstanding, which is the number you usually hear about, you get 1.4 trillion and about 19.6 trillion outstanding debt.

Guess where stocks maxed today?

Should it be spelled maxed, or maxxed?  most consonants would double in this situation, but aparently not x.


That top blue line, which I believe is inpenetrable (on a clasing basis) resistance.  It's formed by the magic hidden dates I posted about earlier.  No false flag happened, but it was a market top. Additionally, "The Money Monster" had a hidden date for the 23rd, which was another market top.  This blue line connects both those dates! And the 8-15 all time high.

And, don't forget, it's OCTOBER!  However a market crash favors Trump I think, so maybe they will keep it up for Hillary? 

the most recent weekly timing array we have said last week was a turning point.  It closed above the previous week, meaning this week should close lower despite starting out higher.

I've had a lot of good trades and bad trades since sept 7.  The good ones are all bounces off this line. 

I'm also cautioning you to not pay any attention to the buy signal on evolution.  It's been too choppy of late for these signals to have meaning.  If you don't believe me, look at the signals the last few times the price hit this resistance line. 

Of note, we've had a number of consecutive lower highs, and the recent low was lower than the one before.

From the quarterly timing array, this quarter is a turning point, but I don't know what that means.  I think it will be a low, and a continuation of where we have been headed since the panic cycle last quarter.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Do you people believe the polls? with hillarious video

I personally thing Trump is getting at least 55% if they were honest.

Of course, I can be wrong, but I guarantee it's not wishful thinking.  That's an honest assessment of everything I can get my hands on.

It doesn't meant that will be the voting result, because like the polls, the election results will also be under attack.  Polls are easier to fake though.

Hillary isn't going to get the Obama enthusiasm high turnout, but Trump might.

This election is very similar to Romney Obama.

Romney screwed Ron Paul in the primary and when on to be the candidate that nobody really cared about.  He had nearly empty rallies.  Obama was the exciting (perceived) new/different kind of candidate.

This time we have Hillary screwing over Bernie (who, sadly, did better than Ron Paul) and having very little turnout at rallies, if her rallies are even real (most are green screened), and Trump is the legitimate different kind of candidate, and he's getting huge turnout at rallies.

The polls that are honest tell you in the fine print how they are rigging it to make Hillary poll better.

Here is what the election is really about:

Trump = team america
Hillary = Kim Jong Ill
Whining liberal criminal welfare thieves are the film actors guild.

So in conclusion, I don't agree with much of Trump's policies, but I really want to see some assholes getting fucked by a giant dick.  I'm also highly averse to getting covered in shit, as Hillary wants to legitimately start world war 3 by provoking Russia/Iran (and probably China) via Syria.

Friday, October 21, 2016

This week's turning point in stocks

Original article


I don't see how we can possibly take out either last weeks high or low, like we should if this is indeed a turning point.  Also, I don't know if we got a directional change either.


The charts, for the most part, look the same, so I'm not posting a new one. 


My interpretation is that we got a turning point low last week, and are riding that into this week, and are getting a high, but lower than last week's high.


Polny is calling for a down week, and I am probably on board with that. 


UPDATE!  Some extra info


However, the main bank of support lies at 17710 followed by 17330. Only a weekly closing below 17330 would hint of a more serious correction. We did rally back and closed above technical support at 18068 last Friday. Now we need to pay attention to this area for a breach of 18050 should mean PAY ATTENTION. A break of 17990 will be more of a warning and this means last week’s low of 17959.95 comes into play. This would warn of a possible drop to 17710.


This is on the dow.  I believe these are all weekly numbers.  We touched 18050 this morning and bounced off of it.  So just watch the close.  If it's close to 18050 but above, I will probably do nothing.  If it's below 18050 I'll be short for next week.


I think it's going to close below 18050.  We are close enough now that I don't think there's enough upside to play it before then.  It's a .1-.2 drop from here.



Thursday, October 20, 2016

Check out this consolidation!


Tomorrow's open might be explosive.  This is a 30 minute chart.

I know not which way it goes!  Maybe this will take us to that turning point we're supposed to get this week.

If we exceed neither last weeks high or low, then I suspect this week will be a high, and we will turn lower next week.

Possible Good time to buy Metals

Today is giving us a major sell off!  But look at the bigger picture.  This bounced PERFECTLY! off the 200 day moving average, red line. 




This looks almost as good, but less perfect. 


This is probably a short term bounce, based on the timing array it will likely close the quarter lower than the last quarter, still, that leaves quite a bit of room to the upside.


Also, I think that stocks are post bottom for the day, but I'm not quite confident yet.


Cripes I accidentally deleted another comment.  I will address it here.  It is actually a 200 day moving average, that I stuck in just for these pictures, because I hear people talk about it a lot.

The market is psychotic today

The short position was a hit, but I closed very early when it was rebounding after the first few minutes.  I wish I had some sort of guess as to where it was going next.


Mannarino really isn't very accurate when he talks about the overall trend for the market being up or down. 


I really miss having daily timing arrays.


I don't think Evolution can work in this kind of environment, but I guess when you back up, it's not that big of a deal.  So far it looks like if you bought recently you should hold.  It actually looks even more bullish on the other system.


It might work out that way, but sometimes moments like this are when everything breaks down. 


This week is still trading entirely within the range of last week.  It's supposed to be a big turning point week, so it has to take out one end or the other. 




If I had to do something right now, I'd probably buy. 

Why I mostly got away from evolution

I think evolution picks are pretty good, but lately the market has been so choppy.  If you take the broad index, the signal flips pretty much every day.

Beyond that, it's a lot of work and I have a job during market hours, which sucks.  I'm honestly thinking about quitting, because just taking me away from trading probably costs me more than my job pays.

Since Sept 7, the signals have been wrong a lot, although they do eventually become successful, just by virtue of the market moving every which way.

So ultimately, I haven't gotten away from evolution on purpose.  Now that I'm settled with my predict-the-open system, I might spend more time doing evolution.  I really just need to make myself sit down each morning and go through my list of symbols to watch. 

I don't think there's any reason to shy away from metals.  I think all my metals plays have been massively successful.  I'm reacting to a recent video by Mannarino. If there is one thing that goes against me enough to scare me away, it's probably currencies.  FXE for sure. 

I could probably also say, I've been testing the limits of it, instead of making the formulaic stock picks. But, like I said, I'll get back to that.


Predicting the opens, analysis

In the past 30 days, which is as far back as I can go on the chart, it was 20-10.  You make money long term if you are above 50%.  Not as good as I originally thought though.

Distance between the two lines seems irrelevant.

Now, one thing that was abundantly clear, if you are wrong, sell at the very opening minute if possible.  This would only have been bad 2 time out of the 10 fails. 

If the signal is correct, the best time to close is usually about 30 minutes into the day.

Applying those two rules would have made wins bigger than losses.  I should mention, it might be difficult to close a position in the opening minute.

If Evolution agrees (doesn't require an entire signal, but should be obviously bearish or bullish) then it is 10-1, which is very good.

When Evolution disagrees, evolution was right 3/4 times.  (this is not statistically significant, I'm sure), at least not enough to say evo is better, but maybe enough to say, don't play.

Evolution by itself was 13-2, so maybe that is significant enough to say that Evo is better. 

Note that evolution only gives a signal like half the time.


So I'll try the following system
Signal on my system and nothing on Evolution - single bet
Signal on both (same signal) then double bet
disagreement - do nothing

When correct, sell 30 minutes after the open
When incorrect, sell immediately.

There, no room for human misinterpretations.  

Fun fact, the ONE day that went against both signals, was today :D  Watch out for days when the market breaks.

And for some reason, I just thought of considering the signals on the daily charts :P  I'll go back and look into it.



Wednesday, October 19, 2016

a couple of things about the missed sell signal for today's open

1) There was a market break, think of this as the matrix being reprogrammed, creating a glitch, and resulting in a system that is more favorable to the programmers.  I've seen a number of these over the past few years, and stocks always take off after.  Today I slept in, otherwise I probably would have caught it.  You can find them on zerohedge.com.


2) The sell signal did not coincide with a buy signal in the VIX.  I'm not sure if that should be necessary or not.  If you want to be right every time, then probably, but overall I think you will make money (just less reliably) by incorporating this criteria.  I'm going to keep track of it though. 


3) Initially, the open was against the signal, but just barely.  Maybe we should immediately abort when that happens?  The signal is literally just for the open, but it doesn't mean you should sell at the open.  I personally held longer, thinking it would go down.  It's just that after the open, you are using your judgement. 


There was one day where the open went wildly against the signal, but then very quickly moved all the way back and was favorable, with the first 30 minutes.  It would have sucked to bail on that one with a loss. 


I'm going to go back as far as I can and keep stats, and see if I can find a way to tighten up this predictor. 


Knowing when to abort is way more important than knowing when to buy. 


Or maybe I should get back to evolution basics! 

10-19-16 Finding the turning point.


According to the quarterly array, there should be a major turning point, Oct-Dec, which will continue at least through the 1Q 2017.  I don't know if we have enough info to say if it's a high or a low, especially after last quarter being a panic cycle.  Looking at everything I can find, I think we will set a low this quarter.  4 increasing blue bars in a row does not mean a 4 quarter trend.

These are overlapping, but I'm putting both so we can see more.


We did get a turning point high the week beginning 9/26, meaning 10/10 could be a turning point low last week.  In the second chart, the turning point has been delayed into this week.  At the moment, we are within the previous week's trading range, and I think we should break out on one side of the other. 

Bo Polny is bearish through this week and next.  I know some of you have given up on him.  I gave up on him years ago, but started paying more attention lately when he nailed a number of tops on youtube videos.  I will say he's been very guilty of overestimating the magnitude of moves, but directionally, he's been right most (not all) of the time. 




So the S&P is currently butting up against both those lines (on the right) and the Dow is in the general area of those lines on the left.

Ultimately I don't think I have enough to go on here, which sucks.  Maybe the safest thing is to wait for a high or low that takes out the previous weeks, and then bet on a turning point.  I guess, if I'm forced, I'll pick this week to close higher than last week, to satisfy the turning point, and the next 2 weeks to finish lower, which could set up 11/14 as a major turning point high.

That pretty much ignores the directional change, which is supposed to be a move with conviction. 

So for now I'm just going to sit tight, and play the end of the day signal for tomorrow's open. 

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

big ol sell signal

Since keeping track, Friday, Monday, and Tuesday were all successful.


sorry for deleting comments

I promise it's on accident.  The only comments I've deleted on purpose is some guy who thinks we owe him profit and loss statements, like this blog exists solely for his amusement. 

It happens when I think I'm clicking it to reply.  Feel free to put your comments back.  It seems as though I can't.

Monday, October 17, 2016

SPX - one bar to rule them all


This can go either way pending the finish of this last bar.  Right now the orange line is barely on top (bullish for open tomorrow)


If it ends up this way, I won't play it.  There's too much otherwise bearishness.


So, I hope it finishes bearish for tomorrow, so I'll know what to do.

Mannarinos things that he says that my head math disagrees with

It could be that he's right on all of it and I'm wrong


It's never wrong to sell at a profit:
The reason I disagree with this, is you could end up selling all your winners early, and then you won't make enough profit to outweigh your losing trades.  You need to WIN when you win, because there's a good chance you will lose when you lose.  Of course, don't hole


Always hedge your positions:
I think what he means is, have some longs and some shorts, and that applies even when you think the market is going one way or the other.  Now, it is possible that some stocks will go one way when the overall market goes the opposite way, and you can still make money on everything.  I think that as long as you are not all in, you are hedged.  It doesn't matter if you make a bad trade and a good trade on the same day, or if you make them on different days.  You are equally hedged.  Take this week, The timing array says stocks should hit a low this week, so why be long anything?


Take a small initial position and add to it if it goes your way:
This might work out in reality, but on paper the stock could go against you after the second trade as easily as it could the first trade.  Extra work, extra commission cost, extra reporting issues.  I just don't see the point. 



Potential crash in the very near term

From bo Polny


A crash is expected to begin tomorrow October 17, 2016 with a deep crash low expected to arrive Tuesday October 18,


My previous chart



Yes I know that is most of a buy signal, but look at that wedge. 


today is starting out down. 


I'm not saying there is definitely going to be a crash, but if there is a "Black" Tuesday type day, I'd never forgive myself if I missed out on it.  Since there has only been 2 in the last 100 years, it's pretty rare, and thus probably won't happen. 


I think the way I will play this, is to go out of the money, and into the future.  Going farther into the future will mute smaller moves that might go against you, but will still be heavily affected by a very large move.


Going out of the money has a similar effect, and it lets you get more contracts for the same amount of money.


Also, VXX will move a greater distance than SPX, so in a very large move, I expect it will make more money.


Also, make sure you buy the correct option (put or call).



It's not much, but it's been that kind of day. Weekly timing array for DOW

The quote is from Batman, Mask of the Phantasm, FYI.


Lot's of turning points.  If this week is a low, it should rebound into a high sometime the week starting 10/31, and turn south again, which agrees with Bo Polny.


Then a low in November 14-18 and rally through the rest of November. 


Then there is a panic cycle and it starts to get murky. 


Directional change this week, which means something.


Directional Change
The Directional Change model represents when a market will begin to make a decisive move. A Directional Change differs from a turning point in that the Directional Change target does not need to be the actual high or low.
Example: it is possible to find the intraday high or low take place 1 to 3 time units (days, weeks, months, etc.) preceding the Directional Change target. On a weekly level, the actual high might form on Wednesday while the market moves sideways within a narrow trading band until the Directional Change comes into play, perhaps the following week.

During periods of high volatility it will be more common to find the Turning Point and Directional Change converge during the same time period. This normally occurs when a market is making a spike low or high.


This could mean when the market drops from that wedge I've shown with conviction. 

Friday, October 14, 2016

Sources of Money if you don't have money

Christmas is coming up!  Ask for money

A refinance if you own your own home

student loans if you are a student

Borrow money from your retirement if you have such an account. 


Of the above, I don't consider them risky.  Borrowing from retirement is just investing in something different.  I think you can do better than some far away money manager.  It's also about the same thing as refinancing.  I don't support owning a lot of equity in the home, because if you don't, you are better able to walk away if there is some kind of crash.

If you can get subsidized student loans at no interest, go for it.

Then, there are credit card checks.  After I was successful for a couple weeks, I did this.  It worked out very well.  You should be able to get a check with 0% APR for over a year, but you will have to pay 2-4% fee of the original amount. 

If you are doing credit card checks, you absolutely have to win (or declare bankruptcy, but then you won't get another chance this way).  Don't get lazy with your picks, because you have to be right.  Also don't be afraid to close a position at a loss, before it turns into a bigger loss. 


Today

I have a sneaking suspicion stocks are going to peak and turn back down today.


But don't quote me on that.  The weekly timing array is largely at odds with this prediction, so I don't know what to do. 


Mannarino says buy buy buy, but lets look at today's progress:



The start of this line is cut off, it was from the June low.  We broke this wedge to the downside a few days ago, and came back up against it today.  This is a SOLID *potential* turning point. 


Let's also realize that buy and sell signals haven't meant a whole lot the past few weeks. 


The same chart on the weekly level looks a bit more the way that it is.
It decided to bounce back into the same wedge on the weekly scale, and I suspect it will close inside.  This is a buy signal, EXCEPT for the EMA.  I suppose the UO is also flat, but it's not negative at least.


Monday's move should be quite violent, one way or the other.  I'm not sure what to do, can we straddle this?  How do straddle's work exactly?


On the monthly chart, we have a SELL signal.


Maybe I will just let this all come down to that "tomorrow's open" predictor I published just a few minutes ago. 


Now we are getting an intraday SELL on the 30 minute chart, after we hit the bottom of this broken wedge.


I'm not trying to say go short, but be very careful.

This pretty much predicts all opens

Although I'm sure there will be sporadic exceptions, so don't go all in. 


If the orange line is on top before the close, it opens up.  If the purple line is on top, it opens down. 


Despite the two dropping candles yesterday, the line stayed up. 


Once in a while you get a non signal, so probably just skip those days. 


If you played it every signal in this time period, you'd have made so much money. 


I'm wondering if it's less accurate over the weekend, just because there is more time for something to happen. 


I'm going to start playing this every day there is a signal with a set amount of money. 


It's important to realize, if you raise the stakes each time you win, then you will eventually lose big, so keep the investment set! 


I've scrolled back further than this, and it works very well, even when it is just barely a signal. 

Thursday, October 13, 2016

intraday SPX 10-13-16


This is a continuation of  the last post.  It did indeed stay up.  Never really got much of a dip / buying opportunity.  I think this is going to be a significant rally into tomorrow.  Don't lose your shirt or anything. 

It seems to be compression, probably just around the day's open/high. 

I've been noticing this a lot.  The price starts out one way, switches mid day, then continues into the next day, or 2(usually 1), when it switches

There could be a large move Monday, so it makes since to consolidate in advance of that.

Also, is this completely boring?  Do you think it's worth anything, or do you ignore it?

But it's also possible I'm about to lose some money :P