Saturday, October 29, 2016

Monday's open

I'm confident in further declines this week, but I'm not confident either way on the open.

So I'm basically going big short as soon as it opens.  At the moment I'm a little short.

I don't have a solid selling point in mind.  Maybe at some Armstrong targets, one is like 17300, and the other one is around 17,800 (for the DOW).  The time will also be important.  I trade SPX because it's easier.

I probably won't bank on a turnaround at that lower line where it turned around on Friday.  That was just a dead cat bounce.  I will probably look for 2-3 half hour blocks at a steady price to guess that it might be turning around.

If it hits the upper line that I posted about previously (connects highs 8-15, 9-7, 9-22, and others), I might even go all in.  It broke that upper line for about 2 hours intraday once.  That line has been rock steady, while the support lines look like they are about to give.

I will certainly post when I sell.

If it opens lower, I suppose I'll go short, but not huge.

I meant to grab a daily chart.  Oh well.  If we are "watching the bond market" It's a sell both on this and on the daily.  I don't know if these are supposed to trade together or not, I think the answer is sometimes.  In the near term, bonds selling off raises rates which put pressure on stocks, according to Mannarino. 

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