Wednesday, October 19, 2016

10-19-16 Finding the turning point.

According to the quarterly array, there should be a major turning point, Oct-Dec, which will continue at least through the 1Q 2017.  I don't know if we have enough info to say if it's a high or a low, especially after last quarter being a panic cycle.  Looking at everything I can find, I think we will set a low this quarter.  4 increasing blue bars in a row does not mean a 4 quarter trend.

These are overlapping, but I'm putting both so we can see more.

We did get a turning point high the week beginning 9/26, meaning 10/10 could be a turning point low last week.  In the second chart, the turning point has been delayed into this week.  At the moment, we are within the previous week's trading range, and I think we should break out on one side of the other. 

Bo Polny is bearish through this week and next.  I know some of you have given up on him.  I gave up on him years ago, but started paying more attention lately when he nailed a number of tops on youtube videos.  I will say he's been very guilty of overestimating the magnitude of moves, but directionally, he's been right most (not all) of the time. 

So the S&P is currently butting up against both those lines (on the right) and the Dow is in the general area of those lines on the left.

Ultimately I don't think I have enough to go on here, which sucks.  Maybe the safest thing is to wait for a high or low that takes out the previous weeks, and then bet on a turning point.  I guess, if I'm forced, I'll pick this week to close higher than last week, to satisfy the turning point, and the next 2 weeks to finish lower, which could set up 11/14 as a major turning point high.

That pretty much ignores the directional change, which is supposed to be a move with conviction. 

So for now I'm just going to sit tight, and play the end of the day signal for tomorrow's open. 

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