Thursday, October 27, 2016

I think this is a good video from Mannarino

UPDATE: This is about as strong a sell as you can get.  In fact, so strong a signal, that I'm skeptical!  Still playing it though.  I hope it works out.

It's not something I understand well enough to explain.

He says the bond market sell off, which I predicted, will cause a stock market sell off.  This video is coming out the day before Polny is saying there will be a major sell off tomorrow.  This also jives with the weekly array of the dow, which will hit no turning point this week, which is a down week.  It should hit a pivot next week, and Polny says a low on Monday, so they are perfectly in sync.

That turning point should start a rally until the week of 11/14, although the intraweek high could be sooner.  It should close higher for 2 weeks.

Also keep in mind, that confidence is more important than interest rates, so at some point the lowness of rates will not matter.

I don't know if I drew that upper line correctly, I just matched the slope's mirror image and started it from the high.

It's actually bullish here at the moment, but I think it's probably going to stay about the same through the close.  Also, the lines just crossed bearish on the other system.

Of course, dont' forget where the turning point high was for today.

There are 3 bars left.  I will be watching them.

If it's a sell signal, I probably won't post a new thread, you'll know what I think already.  If it's a buy signal, on both systems, I guess I'll have to close everything.


  1. One 30-min bar left for the day. It's extremely unlikely to change the sell signal that is current.

    Evo also negative. so this is a high confidence sell signal. If the final bar is up, it will probably still be a high confidence sell, as it is unlikely to change any indicators.

  2. Agreed. I am short SPY for the overnight. FYI my AAP overnight Call did not do well. It switched during the night. I might try it again with another stock another time but cautiously.

  3. Mannarino doesn't understand Treasuries (or much of anything else). Just because 'rates are rising' (which Mannarino said couldn't happen, mind you) doesn't necessarily mean 'bonds are selling off' or 'people are dumping bonds' etc. For example, bonds are self-liquidating and I hold bonds until they mature, collecting interest payments along the way until my principal is returned. Whatever happens in the markets does not concern me one bit unless I need to sell bonds because of hardship. He's just self-promoting and selling self-published 'books' and collecting ad revenue. His 'eyebrow raising important hyper alert!!!!' is just normal, boring market behavior. Of course, Mannarino said in 2011 that we'd have $200 bread 'in a few years', so he's flipflopped more than a pair of flip flops since then.