Thursday, December 29, 2016

It's all about the January

So I guess forget the last thing he said about a correction in January


"In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.
The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence.


What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.


These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic."


(ask-Socrates.com)


So either stocks are going to take off then crash, or crash then take off.  I'm not sure how actionable that is.


(1) looks more likely to me as rates are going up, and I expect government rigging to subside as the good guys are taking over things.


Also Trumps tweet about the Dow being so high a day or two ago might mark a long term high.


Things like this mark the highs all too often.  Reminds me of Obama saying to short Russia (at the lows)  I think specifically he was talking about the currency. 

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

It looks like a GLD bottom

By the way, the actual 2016 bottom was on a date given by Bo Polny!  After he nailed the 2015 bottom.  Unlike most people who get some stuff from him, I actually listen to ALL his interviews and videos, and he's pretty good.  He was wrong from about the election for a few months, like not even close, but he really nailed a lot of tops and bottoms in several different markets.  A lot of people have been wrong on the markets since Trump won.


Anyway, look at these weekly charts, with the original and alternate+compression systems from mannarino.  There's a solid higher high, that took out many previous highs, and a higher low from the 2015 low. 


It looks like on both Evo and Compression that this is bottoming, not daily bottoms, but more powerful weekly.


I might be cheerleading a bit here, so I really don't recommend buying at this time.  This is just a watch for me.  If I did buy, I'd be expecting a pretty long sustained move, so I might go far into the future and far out of the money to keep it cheep.  That way if it takes longer I'll still make money, or if it fails completely, at least they were cheap options.


Also note, that is an extreme on the UO, a 2 year low at least.  Note that this is an oscillator, meaning it does actually have to come back up at some point. 


The only knock I have is that Armstrong still says this is going lower.  He's been fighting the rally all year though.  I believe he will be wrong on this, mostly because he staunchly advocates that there is no long term suppression scheme, nor are there supply shortages. 


One more knock, is that if you go from the all time high and draw a trend line, the recent high was a 3rd touch on that, and it hasn't been broken. 


Gold is prevalent on the new economist cover. 

Digesting some tips to use with Evolution

Always Zoom out! and check the weekly chart.  The weekly chart will often have some really nice and consistent trending highs and lows, and make some good support lines.  You don't want to go long up against a 3 year resistance, or short with a 3 year support line in my opinion. 


So basically, make sure the weekly price chart agrees with what you think based on the daily chart. 


Also you might be better off ignoring the plays that go against the long term trend, i.e. going long in a trend of lower highs.


Check out this chart going back to 2014.


If you looked much more shorter term, you may have seen DB make a nice bottom and start a bull trend.  But, if you look at this 3 year chart, this is just a normal/random move up to the resistance. 


Also this up move is not very steep.  With options you want steep.  If go with the trend you get better profit per trade. 


Just fyi, if you give some flexibility to the rate hike day, you basically have a sell signal on the daily.  Otherwise the rate hike spike low for DB makes that the most recent pivot point, and it's a low.

Today was a turning point for the Dow

I guess it had to be a high, since stocks were up today.  I think as per usual, Bo Polny predicts a major crash tomorrow or the next day.


Dow still did not hit 20K. 


Earlier in the month Armstrong said there was a real risk of a contraction in January.  That is looking pretty credible.


So maybe we will get to 20K by January before a contraction.  Who knows.  I can't get anything from looking at the chart.  I don't want to try to hard and force myself to see something that isn't there.


I think despite being able to draw a resistance line at 20K, the roundness and bigness of the number does make it a very high potential resistance price.


Keep in mind people don't want to sell and have to pay the gains on it next year, it would be way better to lock in profits next year and pay the year after.  That gives a lot of credence to a possible January correction.  There has been quite a few in the past.

Monday, December 26, 2016

Some free trading advice - I like it

http://officialjohnhowell.com/video-2-10k-per-month-plan/

For sure hit video 3 and go as long as it's valuable to you.

I would watch them all but you only have 4 days.

The first two are about mentality and stuff which isn't a waste of time.

He'll beat the dead horse over simple stuff, so feel free to bail early.  There is really only one concept in videos 3-5, which is as far as I've gotten.

I'm sure his coaching is good but I'm not going to buy it at this time.  I don't know what it costs.  FYI this is the guy I posted that was recently ripping into Bo Polny.  

Thursday, December 22, 2016

A youtuber assessing Bo Polny

It's highly negative.

In my history following him he has been horrible since Trump, but was doing really good over the summer up until the election.  This is how I made like 6x my investment in a few months.

He's called for a lot of crashes that were not crashes, but a lot of them were up to 10% dips.

He's been way off since Trump so it's not time to jump in and trust his stuff. 

Somehow I still think this gold bottom of a few days ago will hold. 

I'm just saying the positive because the video hits the negatives pretty hard.

Bo Polny doesn't have his system perfected, so maybe it's not usable, but it's still interesting.  I think he's right when he says markets can be predicted a lot of the time, but it doesn't mean anybody is doing it.

Did Gold Bottom on 12-15-2016?

First of all:
He definitely made a similar call for December 3rd of last year.  He primarily does dates and not prices, although he keeps saying Dow 20K first (not sure why).


This is not a unique few days, there have been many which have not resulted in a bottom.  There's no technical indication of anything that I know of, but there might be one very soon if it breaks up above this post-Trump top line. 


The 50 Day and 200 Day moving average cross towards the beginning of this chart is known as a death cross, but maybe the death is fulfilled?


Maloney and Armstrong both think it will drop some more, mostly due to lack of support at this price, but I don't consider that worth much.


If I had to guess, even money, I'd probably say this will turn around, but, it's like a 51% confidence and I'm not going to play anything yet. 

Monday, December 19, 2016

Sizable Turning Point Wednesday

At least it is visually sizable in this chart.  I'm not entirely sure that means the swing will be any bigger.


djfor-d-12-14-2016


It's pretty much just a one day signal, as those mounting blue bars afterwards do not necessarily mean the same direction each day, I don't think. 


So then the 27th is another big day.


I think the thing to do is to plan on a reversal on the 21st and 27th. 


I think odds are probably favorable that it's generally a 3-4 day trend leading into the 27th, I just want you all to know, I don't know that for a fact. 


It looks like some sort of consolidation since the fed meeting, so I reckon the consolidation will end Wed, which implies it could be a sort of large move.  Looks like a pennant pattern to me, which implies a continuation of the previous trend.


Also, this week is a turning point on the weekly array.


Armstrongs comments a while ago seemed pretty confident that there would be a "pause" and recovery through the end of the year at which time there was a real risk of a correction.


So maybe this week will see the low, which could be Wednesday, and then a rally into the high during the week starting 1/02. 


If you want to check out the weekly array, you can do so here










Thursday, December 15, 2016

Did anybody happen to buy puts on SLV?

If so I bet you made 5X your investment.


Evolution had it.

A new criteria for Evolution, with EWL chart

In addition to the given...


I'm going to avoid stocks in which the UO isn't reversing from an extreme, as I mentioned yesterday.


AND


I'm going to make sure they are all swinging at once, like the PP is 1-2 days old max, but probably it's either the day of, or it was yesterday, and you get the UO swing (from an extreme) and the CMO.  If I cheat, it will be on the CMO anticipating it will swing the next day.  That's IF I cheat.


AND


Make sure this PP is less extreme than the previous one, i.e. a higher low swinging upwards, or a lower high turning down.


If I'm playing a PP on a more extreme price than the previous PP, it means I'm going against the overall trend, and could be trying to catch a falling knife.


Also the Socrates Market watch is bearish on this one, which is why I looked it up in the first place.



Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Panic Cycle tomorrow

Martin Armstrong


The panic cycle showed up last week, and it's still in the Array posted yesterday.


There is likely going to be some downward movement tomorrow in the down.  A panic cycle is a reversal or a capitulation, and of course, sometimes nothing.  Nothing seems unlikely given today though.


So, my opinion, is that the panic cycle will be a intraday bottom and large recovery.  Taking out today's high is just a maybe.


It looks like there is going to be a major turning point on the 21st and 27th.  The weekly turning point on Dec 19th includes in it the 21st daily turning point, and the 27th is not during a week with a turn.




I also want to remind everyone what Martin Armstrong said about the weekly array, which I posted recently.


That is that the dow may pause and retest support, and then rally until January.  I assume this means the week beginning Jan 2nd, since that is a major turning point.  After that is a real risk of a contraction.  We may be on the way to testing a support line right now.


When they speak in non committal terms, it means they think that is what will happen, but they don't want to be held to it later in case it's wrong, which will happen to everybody who tries to predict the future.


What price might the support be?  He lists 18813, but that seems really far from here (1000 pts) but this might take until the 21st so I suppose it's reasonable. 


I just got an email from Bo Polny saying the 15th is probably the last day before major crash.  I don't advise trading that.

By popular demand, Rate Hikes, the subject!

Lol, Mannarino nails another one.


What he's said specifically is that raising the rates will trigger a major collapse, which all this will, and is doing, and he will be proven correct. 


The bond bubble has burst and will continue to burst.  Rate hikes won't stop it, rate cuts won't save it.  It's going to hit a bottom, which is a long way from here.


The fact that they have risen beyond slowly, means we made it (did we really make it?) a whole year with only a few flash crashes which have recovered.  Bonds have been crashing for months now.


Instead of trashing Mannarino why don't we find someone who is better?  The point of this blog is not to trash people, it's to find out the truth and hopefully gain some ability to predict the future.  A list of people who don't help is worthless.


I read just yesterday that DB said stocks will go higher if they raise rates and also if they imply more than 2 rate hikes for 2017.  Lets follow them from now on.  hmm, did stocks go higher?


IEF got killed today.


My picks of December did good, so maybe they will be right after all. 


FXE and EEM are winners for the month.  DB is not at this time.


No irrelevant Mannarino comments will be deleted!

Evolution on DB

While I have been short this a few days too soon :( It appears that today is actually the first sell signal of the month, or maybe 2 days ago.  At any rate it's very strong at the moment.


Pay attention to the UO on this one.  The boundry lines on the UO are very overbought or sold levels, meaning there is not just the implied direction, but also an implied magnitude. 


November was supposed to be the turning point month high for DB, after a September low, which indeed held up, so there maybe a long way to drop on this one. 

Friday, December 9, 2016

Going with the Trend in this market

When I trade bonds, it's with the IEF fund.  I think it's been a bit easier to predict that other markets short term. 

According to Martin Armstrong, the bond bubble has officially burst.  Eyeballing it, it appears to be down about 20% from the high a few months ago, but actually up on the year.  This year was his projected high in the yearly timing array.  He projects two years of drop in the future. 

So it seems like a viable strategy to short the IEF whenever it looks good, especially when we get an evolution signal.  Who is with me?

Here's the article for your pleasure

I personally do not see this as a shorting opportunity, as it is far from the top of the channel.  Maybe with the rising stock market in the second half of this month, it would be a good time. 

The theory is basically bond money will be leaving bonds and going to stocks.  I can't say that I fully understand it, but I do trust the guy more than my own understanding.

So with his early article saying stocks will stall and test resistance, I'm waiting to enter this particular market. 

IEF is not 30 year bonds like he talks about here, I think it's 7-10, but I think they will track together.  I'll look around for other funds but the IEF seems to be easy to get in and out of.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

The upcoming Dow, Arrays AND commentaries from Martin Armstrong


It looks like we are closing above the resistance today at about 16,600.  Since I'm not playing with house money anymore, I don't see a real turning point until the 14th, and then the 16th.  Is this before/after the fed meeting?  I might want to look that up :P

"The Dow has made a thrust up to the mid 19000 level. We can see technically, the market has closing resistance at 19576 level with the next level up at the 19731 area. We have a Daily Bearish Reversal at 19135 temporarily from today's high."

Onto the weekly:
 


"We have some weekly closing resistance at the 19695 level followed by 19992 area. Support lies back down at the 18813 level technically. The next key Daily Bullish stands at 21301. That will change if we keep making new highs. It may even move lower"


"Looks like volatility may rise next week. We could pause, retest support then turn back up into January. There is a risk that we then have a correction."


*The dates given are for the Mondays of the week.  The turning points could be any day that week.


This looks like the kind of bet I want to make with my hard-earned money.  He's saying we'll be flat to lower until the bar on the week of 12-19, and then rally to 1-02, and then a "correction" which I believe he's implying is substantial.  That would be from the 1/02 turning point high










Playing with House Money

This is the fundamental problem with making money.  You then aren't playing with your hard earned money, you are playing with winnings, and you get wreckless. 


When I started this blog, I made more money than you could probably guess in the first month or two (sept-oct). 


I was aware of the wreckless concept but I pretty much blew all those winnings sense then.  I got into the mindset that I had to keep investing and keep investing, or I would be missing out on opportunities. 


This leads to me doing such jibberishness as making official picks of December lol.  I don't even want to link to them. 


My first real lead, which is why I even opened up these accounts to begin with, was Sept 7.  I waited actually over a year for it, and it paid off big, I think I tripled my money that Wednesday by the next Tuesday.  I also had a tip on Sept 23rd.  By that time I'd lost a large portion of my winnings, but made a ton more on these few days, going long a couple days through the fed meeting, then flipping short.


I had good data in Early oct as well.  I was following that resistance line that I thought was biblical, and got way short before the plunge coming after comey announced he was reopening the email case.  I hit about 6x my investment from sept6 at that point.  I could have paid cash for my dream house at that point.


From then on it was all crap, I kept trying to catch the end of the fall and go long :( then the line broke costing me more money.  Then I was short before the election, that looked brilliant, and I may have been up as much as 10x my initial investment, theoretically, but that vanished by the open.  Then I tried to pick the top of this rally a few times.  I never had good information for these plays.


It's also worth noting, is that if I just picked my spots when I had the most confidence, I could have made those huge gains, and not blown it when playing with the house money on lesser confidence plays.


It seems as though I am into some new opportunities now though.  So I will carefully play these, and blog about them.  Hopefully I will recover during this time.  The good news is that this has been a highly educational process. 


I will post this information soon.  Of all the stuff I've used, timing arrays have been good.  Mannarino's picks when I've done them, have been really bad.  I can believe that he makes money with them, but not nearly as efficiently as he implies, and only with constant monitoring, which I can't do.


Also, I'm genuinely cleaning house on predictit.com.  You can't invest large portions of money though.  I'm not sure if the market is big enough to have even like 5 people using the same strategies without significantly affecting the markets, so I probably can't blog about them.

Friday, December 2, 2016

Dug up some old monthly arrays that are still covering the current period.



This is also a turning point week and quarter for the Dow (although the quarter doesn't end until Dec 31)


So a turning point in November, and a seemingly important one.  Unfortunately, given the action of the month, this could be referring to the high or the pre-election low.


With the weekly turning point I showed earlier, I think the timing is good to get in.  Trading the DIA was a miserable experience, so I'll be trading the SPX and hoping the same applies.


Grading the previous months, July was a major top / success.  The downtrend blew threw September (which isn't as big of a bar) until it got to the larger November bar.  November had both a high and a low (pre-election) so I guess that means we don't know where it goes next. 




Like the Dow, the gold Sept turning point is iffy.  July was a major top/hit, with sept being just a bump up that didn't last.  I suppose you could call it a turning point. Nov say a major crash so will that low hold until January?  That looks like it will be the biggest turning point of them all. 


If gold drops additionally until January, I'll look for a 900 something buying opportunity, because this might be a major bottom. 

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Emerging Markets EEM - My Pick of December!


The opinions in this blog are based off of the work of others, not myself. 
 
If you look at these, they are

almost all bearish in some way, with the exception of the SPX and TCMP, though the Dow is approaching a bearish turn (Monday?)

FTSE is Europe

But look at this list of others that are quite bearish
Brazil
Mexico
India
Shanghai
Australia


EEM might be a nice short to cover the batch. 


So what does EEM look like right now?  Note, I've put the alternate system on top of the compression system.


Also EEM is going to be easier to deal with due to higher volume.







So there is a definite compressed sell signal here.  I personally am waiting until tomorrow.  I don't know if that will be a mistake or not! 


This is also a sell on the old system but there's a limit to how many redundant screenshots I want to take.


I will make this my official "Pick of December".  I can't guarantee it will work, but I can't do any more to be right than what I've got right here.


My other pick of December is short DB, starting tomorrow.


My other other pick of December is short copper.  Also short FXE.


I will later evaluate my 4 picks of the month to probably humiliate myself.


I looked into EEM, it's got a lot of India and China in it.  Some Russia, Middle East, Korea, South Africa, Brazil.

12-1-16 Short INDA

This is from Martin Armstrong.  It costs 150 per year, though I'm currently on a free trial for a month. 


It's mostly bullish on the quarterly and yearly comments, but on the monthly it says
"WARNING PROBABLE WATERFALL CRASH"


So this has huge potential. 


It's definitely a sell on the monthly evo chart, but a buy on the weekly, and mostly a buy on the daily. 


I think this is following many other markets in that there was a turning pt 2 weeks ago, and one this week, which will send it back down, but to clarify, the trade purely for that comment in the monthly section.  I'm just trying to rationalize some supporting evidence.