When I trade bonds, it's with the IEF fund. I think it's been a bit easier to predict that other markets short term.
According to Martin Armstrong, the bond bubble has officially burst. Eyeballing it, it appears to be down about 20% from the high a few months ago, but actually up on the year. This year was his projected high in the yearly timing array. He projects two years of drop in the future.
So it seems like a viable strategy to short the IEF whenever it looks good, especially when we get an evolution signal. Who is with me?
Here's the article for your pleasure
I personally do not see this as a shorting opportunity, as it is far from the top of the channel. Maybe with the rising stock market in the second half of this month, it would be a good time.
The theory is basically bond money will be leaving bonds and going to stocks. I can't say that I fully understand it, but I do trust the guy more than my own understanding.
So with his early article saying stocks will stall and test resistance, I'm waiting to enter this particular market.
IEF is not 30 year bonds like he talks about here, I think it's 7-10, but I think they will track together. I'll look around for other funds but the IEF seems to be easy to get in and out of.