Wednesday, October 19, 2016

a couple of things about the missed sell signal for today's open

1) There was a market break, think of this as the matrix being reprogrammed, creating a glitch, and resulting in a system that is more favorable to the programmers.  I've seen a number of these over the past few years, and stocks always take off after.  Today I slept in, otherwise I probably would have caught it.  You can find them on

2) The sell signal did not coincide with a buy signal in the VIX.  I'm not sure if that should be necessary or not.  If you want to be right every time, then probably, but overall I think you will make money (just less reliably) by incorporating this criteria.  I'm going to keep track of it though. 

3) Initially, the open was against the signal, but just barely.  Maybe we should immediately abort when that happens?  The signal is literally just for the open, but it doesn't mean you should sell at the open.  I personally held longer, thinking it would go down.  It's just that after the open, you are using your judgement. 

There was one day where the open went wildly against the signal, but then very quickly moved all the way back and was favorable, with the first 30 minutes.  It would have sucked to bail on that one with a loss. 

I'm going to go back as far as I can and keep stats, and see if I can find a way to tighten up this predictor. 

Knowing when to abort is way more important than knowing when to buy. 

Or maybe I should get back to evolution basics! 

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