UPDATE #6! Hourly buy signal achieved, but I think it has to close the hour like this to be a legitimate signal. I think the magic elixir is to wait for the higher low on a very small time scale, like 1-5 minutes (and an hourly buy signal).
UPDATE #5 - this is what I'm doing. It could backfire of course! Actually, scratch that, I'm going to use the daily for the EMA to bounce off of, with is 2129. Or, perhaps the magic answer is "higher low" on an intraday chart.
UPDATE #4! Got the bounce, but it was fast enough to make me nervous about buying in now on a short term call option. I'm going to have to wait a bit longer. At least until the hourly close (at half past) I'm so tempted to jump in, but I've been making a lot of money so I should be a bit risk averse.
UPDATE #3! The S&P has dashed the intraday low and is now sitting at the low of Friday. It's messed up the set up for a possible late day rally, but perhaps the recent low is a good intraday turning point to set back up for that rally.
UPDATE #2! Still nothing concrete. The chart has gotten a little worse actually. If it never recovers, then oh well, I still made a ton of money up till now.
UPDATE! This has turned mostly into a buy on the 30 minutes. Still waiting, but closed my puts. Not sure if that is a good idea or not. UO hasn't hooked, it it's at the extreme, and doesn't have much room down there.
UPDATE - this has turned into a buy on the 15 minutes. This is not actionable, but it is something to watch further.
Nothing on the radar yet. This is the half hourly, don't pay too much attention to it. I'm just watching it as a preview for a possible hourly move. When the hourly is comfortably bullish I think I'm going to go long, guessing that there is some kind of intervention or something. These often start between 11-12 ET. It may never happen of course, but if it does, and I'm knowing what's happening, so much money.I mostly wussed out of my puts already. Still heavily bearish and making money but not as much as I was orginally set up to make.
As a newbie trader I am looking for a little advice: I bought TSLA at 199 on 9/8 based on what i thought were good indicators from the Evolution System.I guess in retrospect I was a little hasty and the UO was not hooking up at that time.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I've been holding it since then, thinking it is going to turn around, and yesterday of course was good but today it has given up all of those gains. I still want to hold onto it, do you think I am crazy?
On another note, what about a put on WBA? Isn;t that a full on hit on the ES?
Love this blog, thank you so much!
It's easier that I expected to find signal hits on the evolution system. I can give you my opinion quick but I'm mostly focused on a possible second half rally.
DeleteWBA is a bear hit but looks bullish on the weekly, so use caution! I could short it but with a very itchy trigger finger to get out. However I just think it's a bad time to do shorts, as I have been short all morning and am reducing it now.
I did a big post about the fundamentals of using evolution. You shouldn't need any help! But to me, it looks a little positive through the rest of the day, however there are probably much better stocks according to evolution.
Didn't I specifically address this stock in the post mortem post? Maybe not. I'll try to laters.
My 2 Cents FWIW...TSLA has been a Sell/Short/Puts since 08-02-16. Now just an early warning of a turn around. Wait for it. WBA is a solid Sell/Short/Puts.
ReplyDeleteThank you guys. Food for thought. Even if you don't entirely agree with one another your input is appreciated!
ReplyDeleteGuy,
DeleteJust curious...What made you go long TSLA on 09-08-16?
Did a post just for you lol
DeleteSanford,
ReplyDeleteOn 9/8 TSLA there was a pivot point (which I now know was "floating", not established; Close on 9/6 was above EMA; SD had a recent spike (which has since disappeared!); CMO had got a leg up the previous day; Admittedly UO was not hooking up. So perhaps 4 of 5 indicators looked positive to me.
That is why i went long on it!
As a novice trader I decided not to paper trade but just to jump right in armed with the EvoSys, and while there has been quite a learning curve I do not regret that decision. I am currently a little down but consider it the cost of a fine education.
Thanks to you and Joe for assisting too!
Guy,
ReplyDeleteNot to worry, TSLA could very well turn in your favor at any time. I am by no means an expert, in fact far from it. Sounds like you have a good grasp on what was wrong with your timing. It is important that we all learn from our mistakes. And yes, thanks to Joe for all the effort he is putting into this forum.