Sunday, September 11, 2016

POST MORTEM GS and GDX losers

Warning - this is a bit rambly, but I assure you it was necessary.  You can skip to the end for the conclusion if you want.

Since I started doing mock trades a couple weeks ago, I have logged 2 significant losers.  A GS put from 8-24 and held for 1-2 days, and a GDX call held from 8-29 to 9-1.  The GDX call reversed shortly after I closed it, and would have gotten back up to positive, but that isn't worth a great deal right now.

Is there something we can look for to avoid the few losers we've had?  The answer is YES!  I've found something.  Check out these weeklies!

GS was in a solid buy mode on the weekly, and GDX was in a solid sell mode.  Both these charts had longer term indicators going against our shorter term indicators. 

I see 3 ways to use this information
1) Skip these trades entirely, It's all about your style of risk vs rewards, and how much money you have sitting around
2) Maybe reduce the trades when the weekly is against you, and increase the trades when the weekly is for you.
3) If the weekly is against you, pay more attention because you might want to get out sooner.

I'm going to look at one chart that played out beautifully.  WMT was a buy 8-30-19, then flipped to sell on 9-7, and both made money.   Also, 9-7 was a bad day and reduced the amount of profit if you were still holding it.


WMT was a sell at the 4th to the most recent week, and continued through the next week.  the WEEKLY would have still looked like a sell on the thursday, when the DAILY turned into a buy, and then the daily took off on Friday.

SO, It's hard to draw a line that says buy WMT, but pass on GS, just by adding the weekly chart.

Looking at the hourlies - It would have been very helpful with WMT, you'd have not gotten in until the next day, but none of the move had happened by then, and you'd have gotten out sooner on the 7th, which would have preserved more of your profits.

Knowing the weekly GS was against you, you could have paid extra attention to the hourly, which was strongly a buy on 8-25 in the morning.  With GDX, the hourly was against you as early as 8-30, during the last few hours of trading. 

Conclusion:

So, I think I have the strategy modification I need now.  If the WEEKLY is against you, you can still make the trade if you get a DAILY AND HOURLY signal.  When the HOURLY goes against you, worry that this means the trend is reverting back to the weekly and get out.  I think that if the WEEKLY AND DAILY go the same way, I'll probably ignore the hourly.

Uggh, this means each signal requires 2-3 charts!  I think I'll just post the daily, and ask you to take my word for it on the weekly.  If you have evolution it's simple to check for yourself.

Maybe I should add this to the fundamentals post.

4 comments:

  1. Any profit/loss statement yet from you or Mannarino yet?

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    1. I've been papertrading for a week and a half now using the Evolution system and haven't lost money on a single trade yet. I made over 2 grand thus far. I feel comfortable enough to start risking my own money now.

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    2. Make sure you don't deviate from your style when you start using real money.

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    3. Oh for sure. At first I was trading with different amounts just to get the system down to see if it was effective. Once I saw it worked, I started using more realistic amounts that I plan on risking when I start with real money. So far good. If I get the feeling the trade is gonna go against me and I see the crossovers start closing in to rub up against each other and then cross then I get out before it happens. So far it has worked very well.

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