Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Biggest week of your life T-3 days

Here it is Tuesday with the epic collapse happening on Friday.  I expect the intraday high to be either the 22nd or 23. 


Since it's a Friday, there is a risk of banks not opening up on Monday.  Be aware of this if you trade options.  I'm not sure what would happen to an option that expires during Holliday, and I don't want to find out. 


If you know you are right, and the move is large, the best way to play it is go out of the money, short term.  VXX is probably better for large moves than SPX.  Of course, if you are wrong this will all cost you spectacularly.  I'll also be looking heavily into banking stocks.


I'm thinking for me, playing before the fed meeting has about a 50/50 chance to go my way.  Even if you call the non-rate hike correctly, do you REALLY know which way stocks will break in the short term?  What if they say they will probably raise rates next time?  I also think that waiting until after has a very high chance of going my way.


I'm going to be looking at evolution, but right now I'm thinking go short tomorrow after the fed.  If there is another day of gains it will lose a bit, but if stocks drop 3-4% in one day, I don't want to miss that.

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