At the moment we have hit roughly the 1218 line and ebbed slightly. This could be the high for the time being. Armstrong: "Our timing models had targeted this week of the 16th for a turning point. We have been warning for months that January would be a key timing target. Gold tends to be very seasonal and January is often the time for highs and lows on a major scale... Be an guard for a high this week"
So this could be set up. I think I will wait for a sell signal on evolution.
The real question is, will it take out the previous low (bearish) or form a higher low (bullish). I recommend finding some John Howell talking about gold charts on youtube.
I think gold could be wild either way, so I'll be staying "out of the money", less max risk this way.
For the price target, I think this is at least 113 on the GLD if it makes a higher low, and much lower if not. Another possible target is 110.4 or taking out the previous low entirely if it stays bearish.
The other thing to watch out for is Friday. I'm expecting at least moderate chaos during the inauguration. Other than for the reason of "why not?" I do have some evidence on this. Is chaos bullish for gold? Honestly it's hard to say what's bullish for gold.
I might diversify this with some puts on FXE. It's gone up a lot and I think remains in a bear market.
One final image
This his a quarterly gold turning point for 3rd correctly. So it seems to suggest that we are not turning at the moment.