I definitely should have hung onto these for one more day. I think the lesson here for me is not to get too jumpy with the hourly chart. Also, perhaps in the closing hour, the hourly chart is less useful. I still like the idea of using the hourly chart, it's just that I'm going to make the indicators be more established.
It should be noted that I was not sold excusively by the hourly chart. It was the hourly chart in addition to Armstrong that made me not want to get creamed as I so often have.
Now, if one agonizes too much about everything then there would be little time for anything else.
Looking at the OIL chart, in which the hourly signal paid off in a big way, The hourly signal was more established, and the Pivot was past the point where it could "float".
Friday, September 2, 2016
Thursday, September 1, 2016
9-1-16 Evolution turning on SLV GDX
Original post
I'm ending this for evolution purposes. GDX lost 2.1% and SLV gained 1.4%. I'm not sure what difference should be enough to count. If you traded options, these were pretty insignificant.
I have completed a review of all the past hits posted about. The rest I'm going to let ride. WBA very nearly had me closing but not quite. Evolution doesn't like it on the hourly but it's pretty weak.
BOND is warning of a flip, so I'll be watching the hourly tomorrow.
9-1-16 Exiting the oil position
Original post on OIL
Evolution likes OIL now, on the hourly. It's made immense profit, going from 5.90 to 5.34. Of course I did not play this one, and did not line my pockets with cash. I can't imagine how much money this would have made with options. 26.3% if you played it straight up.
Evolution likes OIL now, on the hourly. It's made immense profit, going from 5.90 to 5.34. Of course I did not play this one, and did not line my pockets with cash. I can't imagine how much money this would have made with options. 26.3% if you played it straight up.
NKE Babysitting your positions, and using the hourly evolution system.
NKE is having a huge day today. It was a bearish hit back on the 26th of August. https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=5421040180377545393#editor/target=post;postID=8894922436855659749;onPublishedMenu=overview;onClosedMenu=overview;postNum=20;src=postname
Had you picked a random point to buy or sell on that day, and got out right now, you'd make just a little money. The bearish hit was on the 26th, but it was hourly bullish most of the day. So if you were also using the hourly you'd have waited until the very end of the day or at worst, the open of the next day. At BEST, you'd have known this was sending early warning signals, and gotten in on the 24th or 25th based on the hourly.
The real key is the exit point. This was flashing an early warning as of yesterday. There was a clear buy signal early this morning. Using that exit would have "lined your pockets with cash" as Mannarino says. It's looking like it might flip back to a sell on the hourly, and the daily didn't go quite to a buy, so maybe another exit opportunity like that one will exist, but maybe not. I'm leaving it in for the evolution system grading purposes.
SO, from now on this blog will use the hourly in some capacity. I'm thinking use the hourly to buy after you already have the daily buy or are expecting it, and get out if you get a strong signal on the hourly contrary to your position. Since it wasn't in place before I can't retroactively use it to the advantage of this position.
Evolution, on the hourly scale
Just guess, do you think this would be worth anything? Just looking at charts it does seem to have value.
If there is something that is mostly a hit, watch the hourly the next day for a strong signal?
Do these sound like good ideas?
I suppose I can't end this post without an hourly chart.
Here's SLV, which is in ongoing bullish mode, but on the hourly is a near sell. Apologies for cropping off the part that said "60 minutes". You'll have to trust me.
All the indicators have gone to sell except the CMO. I'm especially concerned about this one, because gold has hit 1313 and stopped, and this was a price Martin Armstrong gives as a "reversal" from his system (Socrates). I believe gold and silver likely turn at most of the same time points.
I'm just noticing all the jumps and flat periods in this hourly chart. Score one for the manipulation crowd. Nothing can trade that neatly, in my inexperienced opinion.
Edit - now an hour or so later I've gone with the hourly (and Martin Armstrong) and exited the position. It's not an exit as far as grading evolution though, they are still strongly bullish.
If there is something that is mostly a hit, watch the hourly the next day for a strong signal?
Do these sound like good ideas?
I suppose I can't end this post without an hourly chart.
Here's SLV, which is in ongoing bullish mode, but on the hourly is a near sell. Apologies for cropping off the part that said "60 minutes". You'll have to trust me.
I'm just noticing all the jumps and flat periods in this hourly chart. Score one for the manipulation crowd. Nothing can trade that neatly, in my inexperienced opinion.
Edit - now an hour or so later I've gone with the hourly (and Martin Armstrong) and exited the position. It's not an exit as far as grading evolution though, they are still strongly bullish.
Is Evolution worth the money?
As far as the picks, that's what we're trying to find out.
There is one thing I can tell you for certain. Don't try to trade the evolution system based on mannarino's videos or this blog. This blog is probably a little better, but realize that I also have a job, and do some of this at work, and while some posts are timely, some will surely not be, especially the exit point on a trade I didn't make.
It's been maybe 2 days since I reviewed the past hits. Maybe they flipped yesterday. Now that I think about it, if they did, I can't objectively pick and end point, so I should be sure to review these every day. Still, that's not a guarantee.
If you count the buy+sell commission, the evolution system is cheaper than 2 trades, also if you do options, which cost more, one trade commission could cost more.
If you are trying to save the money and follow this blog instead, that will be a huge mistake.
I think this is the bottom line for the price.
Even if you don't use it to look for a trade, you could at least run a trade you were already thinking of using. What is the price of making a bad trade? Way more than 20 dollars I can assure you.
I went back and looked at Brexit. Evolution picked up the action in gold and silver. One would have made a ton of money if you had the guts to follow evolution through that turmoil. It did not trigger a stock sell until the second day, but that would have made good money too. Also, I close my short at the end of the first day and went long. That lost a lot of money, and evolution would have stopped me. If I'd have made the same trade a day later, I would have made tons.
There is one thing I can tell you for certain. Don't try to trade the evolution system based on mannarino's videos or this blog. This blog is probably a little better, but realize that I also have a job, and do some of this at work, and while some posts are timely, some will surely not be, especially the exit point on a trade I didn't make.
It's been maybe 2 days since I reviewed the past hits. Maybe they flipped yesterday. Now that I think about it, if they did, I can't objectively pick and end point, so I should be sure to review these every day. Still, that's not a guarantee.
If you count the buy+sell commission, the evolution system is cheaper than 2 trades, also if you do options, which cost more, one trade commission could cost more.
If you are trying to save the money and follow this blog instead, that will be a huge mistake.
I think this is the bottom line for the price.
Even if you don't use it to look for a trade, you could at least run a trade you were already thinking of using. What is the price of making a bad trade? Way more than 20 dollars I can assure you.
I went back and looked at Brexit. Evolution picked up the action in gold and silver. One would have made a ton of money if you had the guts to follow evolution through that turmoil. It did not trigger a stock sell until the second day, but that would have made good money too. Also, I close my short at the end of the first day and went long. That lost a lot of money, and evolution would have stopped me. If I'd have made the same trade a day later, I would have made tons.
9-01-16 WBA delayed post on a hit from 8/30
As you can see, some gains have already been missed out on. Still, it's an ongoing hit, with now early warning sign that it might change direction. I find that the UO is often flat for 2 or more days at a turning point.
Since we're testing the system, not my blog (my blog is not trading advice!) then I will go back to the date of the hit for the price.
On 8-30 it was about 80.45 if you split the open and close price evenly. There was a decent dip that day that could have made it much better if you nailed it perfectly.
Looking at the past, it does seem a bit reluctant to pass the dashed line, which it is now butting up against. Also, I looked at the hourly version of the evolution system where it is bearish, but since it's hourly, it could change direction in just hours and go back bullish.
Thanks for the tip on this one by the way. It was left in a comment on another post.
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