So I guess forget the last thing he said about a correction in January
"In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.
The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence.
What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.
These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic."
(ask-Socrates.com)
So either stocks are going to take off then crash, or crash then take off. I'm not sure how actionable that is.
(1) looks more likely to me as rates are going up, and I expect government rigging to subside as the good guys are taking over things.
Also Trumps tweet about the Dow being so high a day or two ago might mark a long term high.
Things like this mark the highs all too often. Reminds me of Obama saying to short Russia (at the lows) I think specifically he was talking about the currency.
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
It looks like a GLD bottom
By the way, the actual 2016 bottom was on a date given by Bo Polny! After he nailed the 2015 bottom. Unlike most people who get some stuff from him, I actually listen to ALL his interviews and videos, and he's pretty good. He was wrong from about the election for a few months, like not even close, but he really nailed a lot of tops and bottoms in several different markets. A lot of people have been wrong on the markets since Trump won.
Anyway, look at these weekly charts, with the original and alternate+compression systems from mannarino. There's a solid higher high, that took out many previous highs, and a higher low from the 2015 low.
It looks like on both Evo and Compression that this is bottoming, not daily bottoms, but more powerful weekly.
I might be cheerleading a bit here, so I really don't recommend buying at this time. This is just a watch for me. If I did buy, I'd be expecting a pretty long sustained move, so I might go far into the future and far out of the money to keep it cheep. That way if it takes longer I'll still make money, or if it fails completely, at least they were cheap options.
Also note, that is an extreme on the UO, a 2 year low at least. Note that this is an oscillator, meaning it does actually have to come back up at some point.
The only knock I have is that Armstrong still says this is going lower. He's been fighting the rally all year though. I believe he will be wrong on this, mostly because he staunchly advocates that there is no long term suppression scheme, nor are there supply shortages.
One more knock, is that if you go from the all time high and draw a trend line, the recent high was a 3rd touch on that, and it hasn't been broken.
Gold is prevalent on the new economist cover.
Anyway, look at these weekly charts, with the original and alternate+compression systems from mannarino. There's a solid higher high, that took out many previous highs, and a higher low from the 2015 low.
It looks like on both Evo and Compression that this is bottoming, not daily bottoms, but more powerful weekly.
I might be cheerleading a bit here, so I really don't recommend buying at this time. This is just a watch for me. If I did buy, I'd be expecting a pretty long sustained move, so I might go far into the future and far out of the money to keep it cheep. That way if it takes longer I'll still make money, or if it fails completely, at least they were cheap options.
The only knock I have is that Armstrong still says this is going lower. He's been fighting the rally all year though. I believe he will be wrong on this, mostly because he staunchly advocates that there is no long term suppression scheme, nor are there supply shortages.
One more knock, is that if you go from the all time high and draw a trend line, the recent high was a 3rd touch on that, and it hasn't been broken.
Gold is prevalent on the new economist cover.
Digesting some tips to use with Evolution
Always Zoom out! and check the weekly chart. The weekly chart will often have some really nice and consistent trending highs and lows, and make some good support lines. You don't want to go long up against a 3 year resistance, or short with a 3 year support line in my opinion.
So basically, make sure the weekly price chart agrees with what you think based on the daily chart.
Also you might be better off ignoring the plays that go against the long term trend, i.e. going long in a trend of lower highs.
Check out this chart going back to 2014.
If you looked much more shorter term, you may have seen DB make a nice bottom and start a bull trend. But, if you look at this 3 year chart, this is just a normal/random move up to the resistance.
Also this up move is not very steep. With options you want steep. If go with the trend you get better profit per trade.
Just fyi, if you give some flexibility to the rate hike day, you basically have a sell signal on the daily. Otherwise the rate hike spike low for DB makes that the most recent pivot point, and it's a low.
So basically, make sure the weekly price chart agrees with what you think based on the daily chart.
Also you might be better off ignoring the plays that go against the long term trend, i.e. going long in a trend of lower highs.
Check out this chart going back to 2014.
Also this up move is not very steep. With options you want steep. If go with the trend you get better profit per trade.
Just fyi, if you give some flexibility to the rate hike day, you basically have a sell signal on the daily. Otherwise the rate hike spike low for DB makes that the most recent pivot point, and it's a low.
Today was a turning point for the Dow
I guess it had to be a high, since stocks were up today. I think as per usual, Bo Polny predicts a major crash tomorrow or the next day.
Dow still did not hit 20K.
Earlier in the month Armstrong said there was a real risk of a contraction in January. That is looking pretty credible.
So maybe we will get to 20K by January before a contraction. Who knows. I can't get anything from looking at the chart. I don't want to try to hard and force myself to see something that isn't there.
I think despite being able to draw a resistance line at 20K, the roundness and bigness of the number does make it a very high potential resistance price.
Keep in mind people don't want to sell and have to pay the gains on it next year, it would be way better to lock in profits next year and pay the year after. That gives a lot of credence to a possible January correction. There has been quite a few in the past.
Dow still did not hit 20K.
Earlier in the month Armstrong said there was a real risk of a contraction in January. That is looking pretty credible.
So maybe we will get to 20K by January before a contraction. Who knows. I can't get anything from looking at the chart. I don't want to try to hard and force myself to see something that isn't there.
I think despite being able to draw a resistance line at 20K, the roundness and bigness of the number does make it a very high potential resistance price.
Keep in mind people don't want to sell and have to pay the gains on it next year, it would be way better to lock in profits next year and pay the year after. That gives a lot of credence to a possible January correction. There has been quite a few in the past.
Monday, December 26, 2016
Some free trading advice - I like it
http://officialjohnhowell.com/video-2-10k-per-month-plan/
For sure hit video 3 and go as long as it's valuable to you.
I would watch them all but you only have 4 days.
The first two are about mentality and stuff which isn't a waste of time.
He'll beat the dead horse over simple stuff, so feel free to bail early. There is really only one concept in videos 3-5, which is as far as I've gotten.
I'm sure his coaching is good but I'm not going to buy it at this time. I don't know what it costs. FYI this is the guy I posted that was recently ripping into Bo Polny.
For sure hit video 3 and go as long as it's valuable to you.
I would watch them all but you only have 4 days.
The first two are about mentality and stuff which isn't a waste of time.
He'll beat the dead horse over simple stuff, so feel free to bail early. There is really only one concept in videos 3-5, which is as far as I've gotten.
I'm sure his coaching is good but I'm not going to buy it at this time. I don't know what it costs. FYI this is the guy I posted that was recently ripping into Bo Polny.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
A youtuber assessing Bo Polny
In my history following him he has been horrible since Trump, but was doing really good over the summer up until the election. This is how I made like 6x my investment in a few months.
He's called for a lot of crashes that were not crashes, but a lot of them were up to 10% dips.
He's been way off since Trump so it's not time to jump in and trust his stuff.
Somehow I still think this gold bottom of a few days ago will hold.
I'm just saying the positive because the video hits the negatives pretty hard.
Bo Polny doesn't have his system perfected, so maybe it's not usable, but it's still interesting. I think he's right when he says markets can be predicted a lot of the time, but it doesn't mean anybody is doing it.
Did Gold Bottom on 12-15-2016?
First of all:
He definitely made a similar call for December 3rd of last year. He primarily does dates and not prices, although he keeps saying Dow 20K first (not sure why).
This is not a unique few days, there have been many which have not resulted in a bottom. There's no technical indication of anything that I know of, but there might be one very soon if it breaks up above this post-Trump top line.
The 50 Day and 200 Day moving average cross towards the beginning of this chart is known as a death cross, but maybe the death is fulfilled?
Maloney and Armstrong both think it will drop some more, mostly due to lack of support at this price, but I don't consider that worth much.
If I had to guess, even money, I'd probably say this will turn around, but, it's like a 51% confidence and I'm not going to play anything yet.
The 50 Day and 200 Day moving average cross towards the beginning of this chart is known as a death cross, but maybe the death is fulfilled?
Maloney and Armstrong both think it will drop some more, mostly due to lack of support at this price, but I don't consider that worth much.
If I had to guess, even money, I'd probably say this will turn around, but, it's like a 51% confidence and I'm not going to play anything yet.
Monday, December 19, 2016
Sizable Turning Point Wednesday
At least it is visually sizable in this chart. I'm not entirely sure that means the swing will be any bigger.
It's pretty much just a one day signal, as those mounting blue bars afterwards do not necessarily mean the same direction each day, I don't think.
So then the 27th is another big day.
I think the thing to do is to plan on a reversal on the 21st and 27th.
I think odds are probably favorable that it's generally a 3-4 day trend leading into the 27th, I just want you all to know, I don't know that for a fact.
It looks like some sort of consolidation since the fed meeting, so I reckon the consolidation will end Wed, which implies it could be a sort of large move. Looks like a pennant pattern to me, which implies a continuation of the previous trend.
Also, this week is a turning point on the weekly array.
Armstrongs comments a while ago seemed pretty confident that there would be a "pause" and recovery through the end of the year at which time there was a real risk of a correction.
So maybe this week will see the low, which could be Wednesday, and then a rally into the high during the week starting 1/02.
If you want to check out the weekly array, you can do so here
It's pretty much just a one day signal, as those mounting blue bars afterwards do not necessarily mean the same direction each day, I don't think.
So then the 27th is another big day.
I think the thing to do is to plan on a reversal on the 21st and 27th.
I think odds are probably favorable that it's generally a 3-4 day trend leading into the 27th, I just want you all to know, I don't know that for a fact.
It looks like some sort of consolidation since the fed meeting, so I reckon the consolidation will end Wed, which implies it could be a sort of large move. Looks like a pennant pattern to me, which implies a continuation of the previous trend.
Also, this week is a turning point on the weekly array.
Armstrongs comments a while ago seemed pretty confident that there would be a "pause" and recovery through the end of the year at which time there was a real risk of a correction.
So maybe this week will see the low, which could be Wednesday, and then a rally into the high during the week starting 1/02.
If you want to check out the weekly array, you can do so here
Thursday, December 15, 2016
A new criteria for Evolution, with EWL chart
In addition to the given...
I'm going to avoid stocks in which the UO isn't reversing from an extreme, as I mentioned yesterday.
AND
I'm going to make sure they are all swinging at once, like the PP is 1-2 days old max, but probably it's either the day of, or it was yesterday, and you get the UO swing (from an extreme) and the CMO. If I cheat, it will be on the CMO anticipating it will swing the next day. That's IF I cheat.
AND
Make sure this PP is less extreme than the previous one, i.e. a higher low swinging upwards, or a lower high turning down.
If I'm playing a PP on a more extreme price than the previous PP, it means I'm going against the overall trend, and could be trying to catch a falling knife.
Also the Socrates Market watch is bearish on this one, which is why I looked it up in the first place.
I'm going to avoid stocks in which the UO isn't reversing from an extreme, as I mentioned yesterday.
AND
I'm going to make sure they are all swinging at once, like the PP is 1-2 days old max, but probably it's either the day of, or it was yesterday, and you get the UO swing (from an extreme) and the CMO. If I cheat, it will be on the CMO anticipating it will swing the next day. That's IF I cheat.
AND
Make sure this PP is less extreme than the previous one, i.e. a higher low swinging upwards, or a lower high turning down.
If I'm playing a PP on a more extreme price than the previous PP, it means I'm going against the overall trend, and could be trying to catch a falling knife.
Also the Socrates Market watch is bearish on this one, which is why I looked it up in the first place.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Panic Cycle tomorrow
Martin Armstrong
The panic cycle showed up last week, and it's still in the Array posted yesterday.
There is likely going to be some downward movement tomorrow in the down. A panic cycle is a reversal or a capitulation, and of course, sometimes nothing. Nothing seems unlikely given today though.
So, my opinion, is that the panic cycle will be a intraday bottom and large recovery. Taking out today's high is just a maybe.
It looks like there is going to be a major turning point on the 21st and 27th. The weekly turning point on Dec 19th includes in it the 21st daily turning point, and the 27th is not during a week with a turn.
I also want to remind everyone what Martin Armstrong said about the weekly array, which I posted recently.
That is that the dow may pause and retest support, and then rally until January. I assume this means the week beginning Jan 2nd, since that is a major turning point. After that is a real risk of a contraction. We may be on the way to testing a support line right now.
When they speak in non committal terms, it means they think that is what will happen, but they don't want to be held to it later in case it's wrong, which will happen to everybody who tries to predict the future.
What price might the support be? He lists 18813, but that seems really far from here (1000 pts) but this might take until the 21st so I suppose it's reasonable.
I just got an email from Bo Polny saying the 15th is probably the last day before major crash. I don't advise trading that.
The panic cycle showed up last week, and it's still in the Array posted yesterday.
There is likely going to be some downward movement tomorrow in the down. A panic cycle is a reversal or a capitulation, and of course, sometimes nothing. Nothing seems unlikely given today though.
So, my opinion, is that the panic cycle will be a intraday bottom and large recovery. Taking out today's high is just a maybe.
It looks like there is going to be a major turning point on the 21st and 27th. The weekly turning point on Dec 19th includes in it the 21st daily turning point, and the 27th is not during a week with a turn.
I also want to remind everyone what Martin Armstrong said about the weekly array, which I posted recently.
That is that the dow may pause and retest support, and then rally until January. I assume this means the week beginning Jan 2nd, since that is a major turning point. After that is a real risk of a contraction. We may be on the way to testing a support line right now.
When they speak in non committal terms, it means they think that is what will happen, but they don't want to be held to it later in case it's wrong, which will happen to everybody who tries to predict the future.
What price might the support be? He lists 18813, but that seems really far from here (1000 pts) but this might take until the 21st so I suppose it's reasonable.
I just got an email from Bo Polny saying the 15th is probably the last day before major crash. I don't advise trading that.
By popular demand, Rate Hikes, the subject!
Lol, Mannarino nails another one.
What he's said specifically is that raising the rates will trigger a major collapse, which all this will, and is doing, and he will be proven correct.
The bond bubble has burst and will continue to burst. Rate hikes won't stop it, rate cuts won't save it. It's going to hit a bottom, which is a long way from here.
The fact that they have risen beyond slowly, means we made it (did we really make it?) a whole year with only a few flash crashes which have recovered. Bonds have been crashing for months now.
Instead of trashing Mannarino why don't we find someone who is better? The point of this blog is not to trash people, it's to find out the truth and hopefully gain some ability to predict the future. A list of people who don't help is worthless.
I read just yesterday that DB said stocks will go higher if they raise rates and also if they imply more than 2 rate hikes for 2017. Lets follow them from now on. hmm, did stocks go higher?
IEF got killed today.
My picks of December did good, so maybe they will be right after all.
FXE and EEM are winners for the month. DB is not at this time.
No irrelevant Mannarino comments will be deleted!
What he's said specifically is that raising the rates will trigger a major collapse, which all this will, and is doing, and he will be proven correct.
The bond bubble has burst and will continue to burst. Rate hikes won't stop it, rate cuts won't save it. It's going to hit a bottom, which is a long way from here.
The fact that they have risen beyond slowly, means we made it (did we really make it?) a whole year with only a few flash crashes which have recovered. Bonds have been crashing for months now.
Instead of trashing Mannarino why don't we find someone who is better? The point of this blog is not to trash people, it's to find out the truth and hopefully gain some ability to predict the future. A list of people who don't help is worthless.
I read just yesterday that DB said stocks will go higher if they raise rates and also if they imply more than 2 rate hikes for 2017. Lets follow them from now on. hmm, did stocks go higher?
IEF got killed today.
My picks of December did good, so maybe they will be right after all.
FXE and EEM are winners for the month. DB is not at this time.
No irrelevant Mannarino comments will be deleted!
Evolution on DB
Pay attention to the UO on this one. The boundry lines on the UO are very overbought or sold levels, meaning there is not just the implied direction, but also an implied magnitude.
November was supposed to be the turning point month high for DB, after a September low, which indeed held up, so there maybe a long way to drop on this one.
Friday, December 9, 2016
Going with the Trend in this market
When I trade bonds, it's with the IEF fund. I think it's been a bit easier to predict that other markets short term.
According to Martin Armstrong, the bond bubble has officially burst. Eyeballing it, it appears to be down about 20% from the high a few months ago, but actually up on the year. This year was his projected high in the yearly timing array. He projects two years of drop in the future.
So it seems like a viable strategy to short the IEF whenever it looks good, especially when we get an evolution signal. Who is with me?
Here's the article for your pleasure
I personally do not see this as a shorting opportunity, as it is far from the top of the channel. Maybe with the rising stock market in the second half of this month, it would be a good time.
The theory is basically bond money will be leaving bonds and going to stocks. I can't say that I fully understand it, but I do trust the guy more than my own understanding.
So with his early article saying stocks will stall and test resistance, I'm waiting to enter this particular market.
IEF is not 30 year bonds like he talks about here, I think it's 7-10, but I think they will track together. I'll look around for other funds but the IEF seems to be easy to get in and out of.
According to Martin Armstrong, the bond bubble has officially burst. Eyeballing it, it appears to be down about 20% from the high a few months ago, but actually up on the year. This year was his projected high in the yearly timing array. He projects two years of drop in the future.
So it seems like a viable strategy to short the IEF whenever it looks good, especially when we get an evolution signal. Who is with me?
Here's the article for your pleasure
I personally do not see this as a shorting opportunity, as it is far from the top of the channel. Maybe with the rising stock market in the second half of this month, it would be a good time.
The theory is basically bond money will be leaving bonds and going to stocks. I can't say that I fully understand it, but I do trust the guy more than my own understanding.
So with his early article saying stocks will stall and test resistance, I'm waiting to enter this particular market.
IEF is not 30 year bonds like he talks about here, I think it's 7-10, but I think they will track together. I'll look around for other funds but the IEF seems to be easy to get in and out of.
Thursday, December 8, 2016
The upcoming Dow, Arrays AND commentaries from Martin Armstrong
It looks like we are closing above the resistance today at about 16,600. Since I'm not playing with house money anymore, I don't see a real turning point until the 14th, and then the 16th. Is this before/after the fed meeting? I might want to look that up :P
"The Dow has made a thrust up to the mid 19000 level. We can see technically, the market has closing resistance at 19576 level with the next level up at the 19731 area. We have a Daily Bearish Reversal at 19135 temporarily from today's high."
Onto the weekly:
"Looks like volatility may rise next week. We could pause, retest support then turn back up into January. There is a risk that we then have a correction."
*The dates given are for the Mondays of the week. The turning points could be any day that week.
This looks like the kind of bet I want to make with my hard-earned money. He's saying we'll be flat to lower until the bar on the week of 12-19, and then rally to 1-02, and then a "correction" which I believe he's implying is substantial. That would be from the 1/02 turning point high
Playing with House Money
This is the fundamental problem with making money. You then aren't playing with your hard earned money, you are playing with winnings, and you get wreckless.
When I started this blog, I made more money than you could probably guess in the first month or two (sept-oct).
I was aware of the wreckless concept but I pretty much blew all those winnings sense then. I got into the mindset that I had to keep investing and keep investing, or I would be missing out on opportunities.
This leads to me doing such jibberishness as making official picks of December lol. I don't even want to link to them.
My first real lead, which is why I even opened up these accounts to begin with, was Sept 7. I waited actually over a year for it, and it paid off big, I think I tripled my money that Wednesday by the next Tuesday. I also had a tip on Sept 23rd. By that time I'd lost a large portion of my winnings, but made a ton more on these few days, going long a couple days through the fed meeting, then flipping short.
I had good data in Early oct as well. I was following that resistance line that I thought was biblical, and got way short before the plunge coming after comey announced he was reopening the email case. I hit about 6x my investment from sept6 at that point. I could have paid cash for my dream house at that point.
From then on it was all crap, I kept trying to catch the end of the fall and go long :( then the line broke costing me more money. Then I was short before the election, that looked brilliant, and I may have been up as much as 10x my initial investment, theoretically, but that vanished by the open. Then I tried to pick the top of this rally a few times. I never had good information for these plays.
It's also worth noting, is that if I just picked my spots when I had the most confidence, I could have made those huge gains, and not blown it when playing with the house money on lesser confidence plays.
It seems as though I am into some new opportunities now though. So I will carefully play these, and blog about them. Hopefully I will recover during this time. The good news is that this has been a highly educational process.
I will post this information soon. Of all the stuff I've used, timing arrays have been good. Mannarino's picks when I've done them, have been really bad. I can believe that he makes money with them, but not nearly as efficiently as he implies, and only with constant monitoring, which I can't do.
Also, I'm genuinely cleaning house on predictit.com. You can't invest large portions of money though. I'm not sure if the market is big enough to have even like 5 people using the same strategies without significantly affecting the markets, so I probably can't blog about them.
When I started this blog, I made more money than you could probably guess in the first month or two (sept-oct).
I was aware of the wreckless concept but I pretty much blew all those winnings sense then. I got into the mindset that I had to keep investing and keep investing, or I would be missing out on opportunities.
This leads to me doing such jibberishness as making official picks of December lol. I don't even want to link to them.
My first real lead, which is why I even opened up these accounts to begin with, was Sept 7. I waited actually over a year for it, and it paid off big, I think I tripled my money that Wednesday by the next Tuesday. I also had a tip on Sept 23rd. By that time I'd lost a large portion of my winnings, but made a ton more on these few days, going long a couple days through the fed meeting, then flipping short.
I had good data in Early oct as well. I was following that resistance line that I thought was biblical, and got way short before the plunge coming after comey announced he was reopening the email case. I hit about 6x my investment from sept6 at that point. I could have paid cash for my dream house at that point.
From then on it was all crap, I kept trying to catch the end of the fall and go long :( then the line broke costing me more money. Then I was short before the election, that looked brilliant, and I may have been up as much as 10x my initial investment, theoretically, but that vanished by the open. Then I tried to pick the top of this rally a few times. I never had good information for these plays.
It's also worth noting, is that if I just picked my spots when I had the most confidence, I could have made those huge gains, and not blown it when playing with the house money on lesser confidence plays.
It seems as though I am into some new opportunities now though. So I will carefully play these, and blog about them. Hopefully I will recover during this time. The good news is that this has been a highly educational process.
I will post this information soon. Of all the stuff I've used, timing arrays have been good. Mannarino's picks when I've done them, have been really bad. I can believe that he makes money with them, but not nearly as efficiently as he implies, and only with constant monitoring, which I can't do.
Also, I'm genuinely cleaning house on predictit.com. You can't invest large portions of money though. I'm not sure if the market is big enough to have even like 5 people using the same strategies without significantly affecting the markets, so I probably can't blog about them.
Friday, December 2, 2016
Dug up some old monthly arrays that are still covering the current period.
So a turning point in November, and a seemingly important one. Unfortunately, given the action of the month, this could be referring to the high or the pre-election low.
With the weekly turning point I showed earlier, I think the timing is good to get in. Trading the DIA was a miserable experience, so I'll be trading the SPX and hoping the same applies.
Grading the previous months, July was a major top / success. The downtrend blew threw September (which isn't as big of a bar) until it got to the larger November bar. November had both a high and a low (pre-election) so I guess that means we don't know where it goes next.
Like the Dow, the gold Sept turning point is iffy. July was a major top/hit, with sept being just a bump up that didn't last. I suppose you could call it a turning point. Nov say a major crash so will that low hold until January? That looks like it will be the biggest turning point of them all.
If gold drops additionally until January, I'll look for a 900 something buying opportunity, because this might be a major bottom.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Emerging Markets EEM - My Pick of December!
The opinions in this blog are based off of the work of others, not myself.
If you look at these, they are
almost all bearish in some way, with the exception of the SPX and TCMP, though the Dow is approaching a bearish turn (Monday?)
FTSE is Europe
But look at this list of others that are quite bearish
Brazil
Mexico
India
Shanghai
Australia
EEM might be a nice short to cover the batch.
So what does EEM look like right now? Note, I've put the alternate system on top of the compression system.
Also EEM is going to be easier to deal with due to higher volume.
So there is a definite compressed sell signal here. I personally am waiting until tomorrow. I don't know if that will be a mistake or not!
This is also a sell on the old system but there's a limit to how many redundant screenshots I want to take.
I will make this my official "Pick of December". I can't guarantee it will work, but I can't do any more to be right than what I've got right here.
My other pick of December is short DB, starting tomorrow.
My other other pick of December is short copper. Also short FXE.
I will later evaluate my 4 picks of the month to probably humiliate myself.
I looked into EEM, it's got a lot of India and China in it. Some Russia, Middle East, Korea, South Africa, Brazil.
12-1-16 Short INDA
It's mostly bullish on the quarterly and yearly comments, but on the monthly it says
"WARNING PROBABLE WATERFALL CRASH"
So this has huge potential.
It's definitely a sell on the monthly evo chart, but a buy on the weekly, and mostly a buy on the daily.
I think this is following many other markets in that there was a turning pt 2 weeks ago, and one this week, which will send it back down, but to clarify, the trade purely for that comment in the monthly section. I'm just trying to rationalize some supporting evidence.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
NEXT WEEK starting 12-5-16
The Unusuable - Bo Polny has Monday as a good candidate for Black Monday, although he really says anytime between 12-5 and 12-30, with earlier in the range being more likely. An old prophecy says the United States will collapse after Russia collapses and recovers, and then Fidel Castro will die. I believe webbot is also onto some impending stock doom, I'm going to get caught up on that.
Now that that's out of the way...
Keep in mind this is a major weekly turning point on the Dow. Panic Cycle for next week. This could imply a very big move. Also realize, the panic cycle could be a reversal in the upward direction, so if it starts the week higher, I won't panic.
This week is also a Euro turning point, which appears that it will be a high. If it's not a high then I will just not play this part of it.
I wish I had some data on gold. I'm assuming it will be an up week, but without much to go on, so I'll probably stay away.
Don't forget DB, this is also a monthly turning point for DB, and if Stocks are going down, DB might go down harder.
I'm going to stay Short on JJC, because I believe it is actually post-head in a head and shoulders.
It looks like a lot of technology stocks are sells right now. INTC would have been a fabulous one to enter yesterday. Does anybody else think Evolution works best on tech stocks?
Now that that's out of the way...
Keep in mind this is a major weekly turning point on the Dow. Panic Cycle for next week. This could imply a very big move. Also realize, the panic cycle could be a reversal in the upward direction, so if it starts the week higher, I won't panic.
This week is also a Euro turning point, which appears that it will be a high. If it's not a high then I will just not play this part of it.
I wish I had some data on gold. I'm assuming it will be an up week, but without much to go on, so I'll probably stay away.
Don't forget DB, this is also a monthly turning point for DB, and if Stocks are going down, DB might go down harder.
I'm going to stay Short on JJC, because I believe it is actually post-head in a head and shoulders.
It looks like a lot of technology stocks are sells right now. INTC would have been a fabulous one to enter yesterday. Does anybody else think Evolution works best on tech stocks?
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Assange dead?
I'm currently investigating. It doesn't look good. It might take me a long time to actually get it all together enough to put out the story with a timeline.
Opportunity for Friday
This week is supposed to be a turning point, so if it finishes higher I will go short. Bo Polny's stock market thing also agrees with this.
And for Fun
Monday, November 28, 2016
I really like AAPL Short right now
Look at this one: We got a clear signal without missing any of the move.
Also, it is maximally compressed.
By the way, if you are actually trading, just pay the money for Mannarinos stuff. You can make or lose thousands of dollars on good or bad trades with options, so why would you stress over 20 dollars? It's $45 for both systems I think.
Officially you should wait until it's obviously going to close below the cyan line as it's only 13 cents off at the moment.
By the way, if you are actually trading, just pay the money for Mannarinos stuff. You can make or lose thousands of dollars on good or bad trades with options, so why would you stress over 20 dollars? It's $45 for both systems I think.
Officially you should wait until it's obviously going to close below the cyan line as it's only 13 cents off at the moment.
Friday, November 25, 2016
FXE
Timing Array
The DJIA did not hit it's turning point. Maybe they will trade together next week, and both hit highs.
The Final Days of the Election, What Really Happened?
UPDATE - I've better improved my understanding so I'm going to do a remake of this story.
Background - the election is beyond rigged for Hillary. She needed the states the polls were giving her, and Nevada, with New Hampshire being extremely close.
The story begins at T-Friday before the election. That night the FBI was mobilizing for a raid. We don't know on what exactly, but probably related to pizzagate.
T-Sunday before the election: The raid never materialized. Hillary issues a warning about a "whopper of a wikileak" that will be fake. (See link in the old material) and instead Comey said on Sunday that they were dropping the email investigation.
T-Monday before the election:
The stock market takes off, this was the turning point. But was it because Hillary was now cleared to win? Or because some big money knew Trump was going to win? When it was official, the market didn't turn back, it kept going, so the real stock market turning point was over the weekend.
AFTER getting the all clear from the FBI, Hillary cancels fireworks show? The cause/effect here is suspicious.
What really happened over the weekend, is that a deal was struck. Wikileaks held back it's "whopper", the FBI dropped the investigation, and Hillary agreed to rig the election - for Trump.
Election results:
The election did go to Trump, but it was all very suspicious. Trump loses the states that were closest in the polls, New Hampsire, Colorado, and Nevada, and wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan? And in hindsight, Hillary was not obligated to let Trump win the popular vote in the deal.
Jill Stein is asking for a recount, and while she will surely make some money, the ultimate goal here is probably to delegitimize the election. Change the result is approaching impossible, as there is only a 1/8 change to gain at all in 3 states, much lower to get enough to win. This could actually cancel the electors from those states, because they won't be verified in time, sending it to congress to pick the president, so then Trump would win neither the electoral college nor the popular vote.
Credit to Bix Weir for getting me started on this track.
Wikileaks internet is shutdown by Team Hillary 10-17-16
FBI reopens email investigation from Weiner's laptop 10-28-16
News circulates about pricing trafficking children 11-4-16
Team Hillary is a bunch of satan worshippers 11-5-16, (wikileaks)
FBI drops the email investigation again 11-6-16 (Sunday)
Team Clinton warns about a "Whopper" of a Wikileak (that will be fake)
Clinton calls off Fireworks 11-7-16
What I think happened, is that Hillary was made aware of all the stuff that was about to destroy her. She agreed to lose, then wikileaks held back, FBI dropped the investigation, and she cancelled her fireworks show.
Background - the election is beyond rigged for Hillary. She needed the states the polls were giving her, and Nevada, with New Hampshire being extremely close.
The story begins at T-Friday before the election. That night the FBI was mobilizing for a raid. We don't know on what exactly, but probably related to pizzagate.
T-Sunday before the election: The raid never materialized. Hillary issues a warning about a "whopper of a wikileak" that will be fake. (See link in the old material) and instead Comey said on Sunday that they were dropping the email investigation.
T-Monday before the election:
The stock market takes off, this was the turning point. But was it because Hillary was now cleared to win? Or because some big money knew Trump was going to win? When it was official, the market didn't turn back, it kept going, so the real stock market turning point was over the weekend.
AFTER getting the all clear from the FBI, Hillary cancels fireworks show? The cause/effect here is suspicious.
What really happened over the weekend, is that a deal was struck. Wikileaks held back it's "whopper", the FBI dropped the investigation, and Hillary agreed to rig the election - for Trump.
Election results:
The election did go to Trump, but it was all very suspicious. Trump loses the states that were closest in the polls, New Hampsire, Colorado, and Nevada, and wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan? And in hindsight, Hillary was not obligated to let Trump win the popular vote in the deal.
Jill Stein is asking for a recount, and while she will surely make some money, the ultimate goal here is probably to delegitimize the election. Change the result is approaching impossible, as there is only a 1/8 change to gain at all in 3 states, much lower to get enough to win. This could actually cancel the electors from those states, because they won't be verified in time, sending it to congress to pick the president, so then Trump would win neither the electoral college nor the popular vote.
Credit to Bix Weir for getting me started on this track.
Wikileaks internet is shutdown by Team Hillary 10-17-16
FBI reopens email investigation from Weiner's laptop 10-28-16
News circulates about pricing trafficking children 11-4-16
Team Hillary is a bunch of satan worshippers 11-5-16, (wikileaks)
FBI drops the email investigation again 11-6-16 (Sunday)
Team Clinton warns about a "Whopper" of a Wikileak (that will be fake)
Clinton calls off Fireworks 11-7-16
What I think happened, is that Hillary was made aware of all the stuff that was about to destroy her. She agreed to lose, then wikileaks held back, FBI dropped the investigation, and she cancelled her fireworks show.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The latest on GLD
UPDATE 11-25-16: Not really an update, but a rehash
"The Quarterly Bearish now lies at 1179 and that becomes extremely important. If that is elected, then it will warn gold can still break the 1,000 level but we have support intraday at the 875 area up to 987."
" Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000. "
It's now at about that price, 1180. He said early this week that Friday was a target for a daily turning point.
Also, Jill Stein is about to officially file for a recount in Wisconsin. That might do a number on some things. I don't trust the stock price, but given the other indicators for gold, I think that's a decent play (long).
I'm going to drastically reduce the amount of trades I make, because damn do I suck. I was so good there for a while! This is why you can't trust a guy showing you a month worth of good trades and give him a bunch of money.
"Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000."
So that was the latest. He went on to say "It may very well break the psychological level of 1000 for 2017"
This is from Monday:
Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30. The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th.
So much for a bounce to the 1231 level, or was I reading into what he said too much? Of course he's never going to guarantee a move, so I'm going to call this a miss.
So I'm going to do nothing until Friday, and then hope that the daily turning point is correct. So it should fall again into Friday, if today is not a turning point. So then the move is to go long on Friday?
Extra thought - I didn't buy Bo Polny's gold report discount (although it's still available through tomorrow) which is interesting. The deal expires Thursday, right before Armstrong says it's a turning point? Do they have the same turning point date?
Bo Has three through the fed meeting. I'm assuming he's saying it will go up after the fed meeting, because he's very bullish on gold. That means the other turning point will be downward, and the first one (Friday?) will be upward?
So, I'm going to go for it, calls on Friday. Also, keep in mind that is a half trading day so whatever you're going to do, do it before the earlier close!
"The Quarterly Bearish now lies at 1179 and that becomes extremely important. If that is elected, then it will warn gold can still break the 1,000 level but we have support intraday at the 875 area up to 987."
" Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000. "
It's now at about that price, 1180. He said early this week that Friday was a target for a daily turning point.
Also, Jill Stein is about to officially file for a recount in Wisconsin. That might do a number on some things. I don't trust the stock price, but given the other indicators for gold, I think that's a decent play (long).
I'm going to drastically reduce the amount of trades I make, because damn do I suck. I was so good there for a while! This is why you can't trust a guy showing you a month worth of good trades and give him a bunch of money.
"Breaking the 1201 level is significant and now support lies at 1179. Breaking that level will confirm we should break the 2015 low and breach under $1,000."
So that was the latest. He went on to say "It may very well break the psychological level of 1000 for 2017"
This is from Monday:
Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30. The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th.
So much for a bounce to the 1231 level, or was I reading into what he said too much? Of course he's never going to guarantee a move, so I'm going to call this a miss.
So I'm going to do nothing until Friday, and then hope that the daily turning point is correct. So it should fall again into Friday, if today is not a turning point. So then the move is to go long on Friday?
Extra thought - I didn't buy Bo Polny's gold report discount (although it's still available through tomorrow) which is interesting. The deal expires Thursday, right before Armstrong says it's a turning point? Do they have the same turning point date?
Bo Has three through the fed meeting. I'm assuming he's saying it will go up after the fed meeting, because he's very bullish on gold. That means the other turning point will be downward, and the first one (Friday?) will be upward?
So, I'm going to go for it, calls on Friday. Also, keep in mind that is a half trading day so whatever you're going to do, do it before the earlier close!
JJC / Copper
Despite the epic beat down my puts have taken, I still believe in this one. It's basically just gone back to double top (hopefully) off that very long term trend line and will make money going forward.
The commercial net short has been very reliable in the other metals markets.
The commercial net short has been very reliable in the other metals markets.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
There is more to Evolution than Just Evolution
Greg Mannarino sometimes references the 50 day moving average. While it is included in the evolution system, there is no mention of what to look for with it. Also based on his picks, he doesn't always seem to care what it's doing.
Do you guys have an opinion on it?
The characteristics I think are candidates to consider
Direction of the MA
If the current price is above or below the MA
I bought into PEP and NFLX based on the website money page.
PEP is blow the MA, and the MA is trending down
NFLX is above the MA, and the MA is trending up.
Both are calls i.e. one moving into the MA, and one moving away from the MA.
No apparent rhyme or reason.
I suppose he could be considering it a resistance point, and with the one below the MA, there is a considerable gap, so it is not prescient resistance with either stock.
Do you guys have an opinion on it?
The characteristics I think are candidates to consider
Direction of the MA
If the current price is above or below the MA
I bought into PEP and NFLX based on the website money page.
PEP is blow the MA, and the MA is trending down
NFLX is above the MA, and the MA is trending up.
Both are calls i.e. one moving into the MA, and one moving away from the MA.
No apparent rhyme or reason.
I suppose he could be considering it a resistance point, and with the one below the MA, there is a considerable gap, so it is not prescient resistance with either stock.
SPX chart over the last 2 years
I'm not encouraging anybody to make a trade based on this chart. I don't know that this is bearish at all, but, I have personally been looking for a bounce down, so this might be a good candidate for a price.
I'm using the weekly just so I can fit it in better, since it goes back a long ways.
The most important thing is, you could have drawn a lot of lines since 2009 only to have them get broken.
Required Reading
the "Reversal System" of Martin Armstrong
"Example: A trader could place an order to buy against a bearish reversal with a protective stop just below."
The fastest version of the story is that if you close beyond the reversal price, it will keep going, but until then, you are more likely to bounce off of it.
"Example: A trader could place an order to buy against a bearish reversal with a protective stop just below."
The fastest version of the story is that if you close beyond the reversal price, it will keep going, but until then, you are more likely to bounce off of it.
The recent Arrays UPDATED
UPDATE! With stocks turning south, I spoke too soon. If it finishes down then it will make good on the daily array.
Also, still have to watch the dow for the weekly close.
---------------
It appears the daily and weekly arrays for the Dow/S&P were not overly good this time :/
hmm, now the pre market trading is getting close to scratch for the open.
Also, still have to watch the dow for the weekly close.
---------------
It appears the daily and weekly arrays for the Dow/S&P were not overly good this time :/
hmm, now the pre market trading is getting close to scratch for the open.
Monday, November 21, 2016
11-21-16 SPX
If you recall from the Timing Array Mashup, the DAILY SPX extended through tomorrow. It has today as a turning point, which I assume is a high, being that it's high.
I closed my shorts for a while but now am back in. I was looking at this array last week. I hoped that if stocks did indeed continue up, it would be minor. It was not minor :P But we got a sell signal now on the 30 minute chart.
We didn't have the 2 lines sell the open signal on Friday, and that signal was correct again. I'll be looking for it for the close today. If we don't get it, I might back out of my shorts.
It's at the tail end of the data, so I don't know how meaningful it is. With the dow, today is the last day on the array, so we can't see tomorrows bar to know if today is a turning point.
Also I'm on the verge of buying Polny's 3 turn dates.
I closed my shorts for a while but now am back in. I was looking at this array last week. I hoped that if stocks did indeed continue up, it would be minor. It was not minor :P But we got a sell signal now on the 30 minute chart.
We didn't have the 2 lines sell the open signal on Friday, and that signal was correct again. I'll be looking for it for the close today. If we don't get it, I might back out of my shorts.
It's at the tail end of the data, so I don't know how meaningful it is. With the dow, today is the last day on the array, so we can't see tomorrows bar to know if today is a turning point.
Also I'm on the verge of buying Polny's 3 turn dates.
The Thinning
There's no reason to purge stupid people to improve the overall intelligence of the population.
It wouldn't actually accomplish anything, as smart people already gravitate towards each other. The difference is, will the dumb people be around in addition.
Here's the thing, they are already dead, if they get cut off of welfare. If they wanted to do this, all they have to do is stop saving them day after day. I'm not advocating that position, just pointing out the facts of the day.
It wouldn't actually accomplish anything, as smart people already gravitate towards each other. The difference is, will the dumb people be around in addition.
Here's the thing, they are already dead, if they get cut off of welfare. If they wanted to do this, all they have to do is stop saving them day after day. I'm not advocating that position, just pointing out the facts of the day.
GLD 11-21-16 and a comment on stocks
Martin Armstrong:
From the previous entry:
"It elected a Weekly Bearish back at 1275 and now we approach two critical Weekly Bearish Reversals at 1201.50 and 1215.50. Electing both should confirm that gold is headed to new lows in 2017 and that should break the $1,000 barrier as the dollar still rallies."
From a new entry today:
"Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30.
The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at the 1270 level so only a weekly closing above that area will signal a recovery. Otherwise, we still see new lows ahead. We see this week as a reaction turning point and a choppy trend every two weeks."
SO, My understanding, and please comment if you think I'm reading this wrong.
He's referencing an array he thinks he has posted but I don't think he has.
When he uses reaction, he means a move that doesn't change the trend, which would be down.
Directional change doesn't mean exactly what it sounds like. It's a vague event.
This week is a turning point week in gold.
So gold should gain this week, but stay below 1270, maybe below 1231, and then continue back down next week, I suppose to that line below 1000 I posted recently.
I assume this is also his opinion on the stock price turning point? A counter trend bounce that quickly fades.
UPDATE - So I'm going to go long for tomorrow and hope for the best. I think that it has a much greater than 50% to go up. I might also grab some FXE based on the recent weekly array. I think this also supports stocks going down for the week.
From the previous entry:
"It elected a Weekly Bearish back at 1275 and now we approach two critical Weekly Bearish Reversals at 1201.50 and 1215.50. Electing both should confirm that gold is headed to new lows in 2017 and that should break the $1,000 barrier as the dollar still rallies."
From a new entry today:
"Gold fell on Friday to bounce off of our Weekly Bearish at 1201.50 stopping at 1201.30.
The technical resistance for a bounce now stands at the 1231 level. The Daily Bullish stands back at 1231.50 level. We do have a Directional Change coming into play tomorrow and the next important daily turning point will be the 25th. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at the 1270 level so only a weekly closing above that area will signal a recovery. Otherwise, we still see new lows ahead. We see this week as a reaction turning point and a choppy trend every two weeks."
SO, My understanding, and please comment if you think I'm reading this wrong.
He's referencing an array he thinks he has posted but I don't think he has.
When he uses reaction, he means a move that doesn't change the trend, which would be down.
Directional change doesn't mean exactly what it sounds like. It's a vague event.
This week is a turning point week in gold.
So gold should gain this week, but stay below 1270, maybe below 1231, and then continue back down next week, I suppose to that line below 1000 I posted recently.
I assume this is also his opinion on the stock price turning point? A counter trend bounce that quickly fades.
UPDATE - So I'm going to go long for tomorrow and hope for the best. I think that it has a much greater than 50% to go up. I might also grab some FXE based on the recent weekly array. I think this also supports stocks going down for the week.
WOW I am wrong on everything to a comedic level
short SPX
short DB
Short GLD
Short GS
Long KO
Short JJC (copper)
I did get one right though, Long O
short DB
Short GLD
Short GS
Long KO
Short JJC (copper)
I did get one right though, Long O
Saturday, November 19, 2016
The weekly close
Despite a turning point on the Weekly timing array, the Euro still finished into the bearish. I don't know if Gold was in a turning point this week, but it too finished into the bearish.
The dow is also on a turning point, and I don't know if it hit any bullish or bearish price levels. Usually these are pretty far apart and I don't think we were overly close one way or the other.
So what does this mean for the rally? Is it going to continue because the Euro and gold are still bearish? That would also make the turning points (and the Evolution system) wrong about the upcoming week.
Overall I stayed out of Gold and the Euro, but did the stock and JJC shorting.
The dow is also on a turning point, and I don't know if it hit any bullish or bearish price levels. Usually these are pretty far apart and I don't think we were overly close one way or the other.
So what does this mean for the rally? Is it going to continue because the Euro and gold are still bearish? That would also make the turning points (and the Evolution system) wrong about the upcoming week.
Overall I stayed out of Gold and the Euro, but did the stock and JJC shorting.
Friday, November 18, 2016
Bo Polny is Back!
UPDATE 11-22 Bo has pushed his black ____day to Dec 6. It looked like a stretch given his presentation. I must also say though, that years ago someone also picked that day for this year.
My subscription to this runs out in mid Jan and I probably won't renew. I'll be paying attention to his youtubes (wich skepticism of course). My general belief is that he is actually on the right track, but it's not perfected, and maybe it can't be perfected.
His argument that 2016 is some kind of crisis year is really good though. I'm not saying I necessarily believe it, just that it's a well presented case.
So, I can buy it for 99 dollars, which I might do. I think these dates will probably be correct. He's often wrong or off on some lesser points, but on his high confidence picks, he usually nails it.
Or I can probably guess that it's supposed to take off after FOMC. There are two dates before that. You have to buy by the 24th for the offer, Thursday, so maybe that is a turn date.
OLD STUFF -------------------
I recommend at least watching this for discussion. On his call for stock top on November 15, that is presently the high, although it has only been 2 days. He said it would be a crash, but he also says at other times he doesn't really know the prices, just the dates and directions. The Dow has made a major sell signal according to Evolution, and is just starting to expand downward. The SPX is most of a sell signal, but the CMO is up.
I'm tempted by the no risk gold trial. It's 99 dollars and if his dates are off you get your money back. I'm not sure if I can before the close today though.
One way to look at it, is that 99 dollars isn't much compared to a losing trade.
He's mostly vague with promises in this one other than general collapse. IMhO a collapse in the economy doesn't even mean the stock price will fall. However since I'm already expecting stock price to fall, then I suppose it means I believe him.
As I'm writing this, Gold is still 7 dollars back from the price it needs to be to turn back up next week, according to Armstrong. Also the Euro has backed off to 1.0594, short of the 1.0606 support line. Of course it can easily reclaim that price, as it has fluctuated today.
So about that Gold
I'm out, actually I will probably short it for next week, pending a close below 1215, which Armstrong gives as a critical price.
But check this out:
This goes back to the all time high. Obviously it could break, and obviously it will some day, but if it closes below the 1215, I'm assuming it will not break right now.
here is his image:
I think he's implying it will hit that green line at the bottom, and that will be the legitimate low and it will take off from there. Maybe it will only take a few weeks to hit it, or maybe it will take 6 months. The next major turning point on a quarterly level is 3Q 2017.
But check this out:
here is his image:
Thursday, November 17, 2016
The NOB trade
Ok, it costs 1500!
So, I'm a little skeptical. How is this worth his time when he can make that much like every other day with his system? When I started making money I pretty much shut everybody out who wasn't already in on my blog :P.
I haven't given up my day job yet, but if I did, and traded for money, why would I be training people? Compare it to Mannarino, who just asked for 20 some dollars, because he's making his money by trading, not selling stuff.
I'm not that into republicans but...
Actually I'm not even sure if I wanted Trump to win, other than the fact that I bet on him, not that he's not obviously superior to Clinton, just that it's too late and I don't think he can save the country.
BUT for my amusement
I looked ahead at 2018. 8 republican seats available, and 25 democrat + independent democrat seats available.
9 are in trump states, with several others in states that Trump won negating fraud.
Democrats are less likely to show up for mid terms, because Obama phones don't come from congress.
Only needing to pick up 8 seats to get 60, I think it's in the bag.
The last time the republicans had this much sway, they passed medicare part D and tried to force through amnesty for illegals.
I think they will do better with Trump steering the party.
If you could have 60 votes with McCain, or 59 votes, which do you prefer?
BUT for my amusement
I looked ahead at 2018. 8 republican seats available, and 25 democrat + independent democrat seats available.
9 are in trump states, with several others in states that Trump won negating fraud.
Democrats are less likely to show up for mid terms, because Obama phones don't come from congress.
Only needing to pick up 8 seats to get 60, I think it's in the bag.
The last time the republicans had this much sway, they passed medicare part D and tried to force through amnesty for illegals.
I think they will do better with Trump steering the party.
If you could have 60 votes with McCain, or 59 votes, which do you prefer?
The DB post 11-17-16
A direct quote from Armstrong
"The timing Array in Deutsche Bank has been targeting September all along. There are back-to-back Directional Changes for September October and the next main target for a turning point is November. The Panic Cycle played out on time for September as well. This all warns that if last week’s low holds, a bounce into November becomes possible."
Obviously, we hit that low in September, and did rally into November. We exceeded the 15.50 but never hit the 17.90 which he said was the maximum price it could hit. If it did hit that, I'd feel a little better about shorting.
There is a lot of November left, so I'm not sure if we've hit the turning point yet. The weekly's usually turn between weeks, as do the dailies turn between days.
But also look at this chart, this downtrend since 2013, along with the 50-week MA are converging, that seems like it would make for good resistance.
It also makes a sell signal on the daily chart.
"The timing Array in Deutsche Bank has been targeting September all along. There are back-to-back Directional Changes for September October and the next main target for a turning point is November. The Panic Cycle played out on time for September as well. This all warns that if last week’s low holds, a bounce into November becomes possible."
Obviously, we hit that low in September, and did rally into November. We exceeded the 15.50 but never hit the 17.90 which he said was the maximum price it could hit. If it did hit that, I'd feel a little better about shorting.
There is a lot of November left, so I'm not sure if we've hit the turning point yet. The weekly's usually turn between weeks, as do the dailies turn between days.
But also look at this chart, this downtrend since 2013, along with the 50-week MA are converging, that seems like it would make for good resistance.
It also makes a sell signal on the daily chart.
My plan for next week
This week wasn't very good, between failed end of the world predictions that suckered me in, and the election going the way I expected, but stocks not, long story short --- poop. I've done quite well since Sept 7th, when I really started trading again though, and I have high hopes for next week.
The weekly arrays for both the Dow and the Euro, suggest this is a turning point and next week will take the opposite direction.
Copper, JJC, I expect to go down.
So these are my 3 trades, or some variation. I might pile on some bank shorts. I think maybe they have already peaked this week.
And instead of the Dow, I will be trading the SPX and/or the VXX, in the opposite direction (long VXX = short SPX)
I might be long some metals. I'm going to look into it more, but I expect to find that it's a favorable time. I know it's right about at the 600 day MA.
I think there is a lot of room to move in the direction I'm expecting for these, after they just spent 2 weeks going the opposite way.
Thoughts on DB.
Overall I think DB is a good short candidate. Is it better than the others? I'm not sure. I'll probably do a little because I think it has great potential to move far.
I dug into gold, and I'm sorry to say, it looks like gold is in for a really nasty fall, probably a new all time low, but that will be the final low. With gold, you never really know, but that's just what it looks like from here. It's high risk low reward at the moment.
The weekly arrays for both the Dow and the Euro, suggest this is a turning point and next week will take the opposite direction.
Copper, JJC, I expect to go down.
So these are my 3 trades, or some variation. I might pile on some bank shorts. I think maybe they have already peaked this week.
And instead of the Dow, I will be trading the SPX and/or the VXX, in the opposite direction (long VXX = short SPX)
I might be long some metals. I'm going to look into it more, but I expect to find that it's a favorable time. I know it's right about at the 600 day MA.
I think there is a lot of room to move in the direction I'm expecting for these, after they just spent 2 weeks going the opposite way.
Thoughts on DB.
Overall I think DB is a good short candidate. Is it better than the others? I'm not sure. I'll probably do a little because I think it has great potential to move far.
I dug into gold, and I'm sorry to say, it looks like gold is in for a really nasty fall, probably a new all time low, but that will be the final low. With gold, you never really know, but that's just what it looks like from here. It's high risk low reward at the moment.
An Alternative to the succession movements
California/Oregon is not the first succession movement in this Century. Texas has also had them.
I see a much better alternative - Follow the constitution, and stop voting for federal usurpation of states powers. Problem solved.
It's pretty obvious that the president is too big of a deal right now. It wasn't supposed to be this way. Ideally your state government would have a much bigger role in your life than federal.
Also, this map is stupid! And it would suck to be a landlocked country, but it wouldn't be an insurmountable obstacle.
I see a much better alternative - Follow the constitution, and stop voting for federal usurpation of states powers. Problem solved.
It's pretty obvious that the president is too big of a deal right now. It wasn't supposed to be this way. Ideally your state government would have a much bigger role in your life than federal.
Also, this map is stupid! And it would suck to be a landlocked country, but it wouldn't be an insurmountable obstacle.
JJC - could be a big one
Smart money is net short, according to an article I read on Zero Hedge, and it bounced off of a trendline since 2011. Also that was roughly the 600 day moving average, and it's a sell on Evolution.
Today has been an up day so far, but as far as I'm concerned, that just makes it sweeter.
Banks are also up today after flashing a sell yesterday. I think they're still a sell IMhO, but probably wait till close.
Overall I think stocks will have a fairly bad week next week. Don't hold me to this start date for the downturn but I'm thinking Friday or Monday will be the last high before. With stocks going down, I think JJC will go down even faster.
At the very least, it's good diversity because it doesn't correlate that much with the rest of stocks.
ALSO - not worth it's own post, but I'm never trading DIA again. It took for freaking EVER to make a trade. If I do the index, it's always going to be SPX. The trades are so fast, and despite the spread, you can always get a trade in the middle ground, unless you lag long enough for the price to change.
Today has been an up day so far, but as far as I'm concerned, that just makes it sweeter.
Banks are also up today after flashing a sell yesterday. I think they're still a sell IMhO, but probably wait till close.
Overall I think stocks will have a fairly bad week next week. Don't hold me to this start date for the downturn but I'm thinking Friday or Monday will be the last high before. With stocks going down, I think JJC will go down even faster.
At the very least, it's good diversity because it doesn't correlate that much with the rest of stocks.
ALSO - not worth it's own post, but I'm never trading DIA again. It took for freaking EVER to make a trade. If I do the index, it's always going to be SPX. The trades are so fast, and despite the spread, you can always get a trade in the middle ground, unless you lag long enough for the price to change.
The Big Summary on What it Means to Be a Democrat
I must start out by disclosing, being a Republican does not automatically mean you are good, nor does it mean that none of these things apply to you.
THE PAST
In the beginning, people came to the United States to get people off their back and to succeed or die based on their own merits. The pioneer or producer breed always sees opportunities to create value, and move to where these opportunities exist. In human history there have always been these people, as well as those who beg or steal/attack for a living, which one could call the parasite breed. These people can recognize opportunities to live off of the work of others, and move to where this opportunity is.
These two groups of humans are not entirely separate species, which is why I'm choosing to call them breeds. The distinction between the breeds is behavioral, not visual. Additionally, they are a tribe or team, and that is very important to realize. Much like criminal thieves, legal thieves have a much greater chance of success if they form a pack and outnumber those whom they wish to steal from.
A welfare parasite is not much different from a unabashed criminal, it's just that they have a different style to get their stealings. I suppose the welfare parasite is better, in that they do what they perceive is more tolerable by the producers. They can't claim they have permission from the producers, as removing their votes would see welfare abolished.
The pioneer breed will always be the first ones to a new location, and only after they have made it into a great success, the parasite breed will move in. typically, the parasite breed comes from a bad situation, which has been over-sucked by them, which is why they have to move. The pioneer class will be more attached to a specific location, because they have made it productive, and the parasite class will be more nomadic.
Because of the way they survive, pioneers are more patient, better at saving and investing, more truthful, while the parasites are the opposite.
This will explain the cycle of nations, which is expressed in different ways
People are poor, and act like they are poor, saving everything and working hard, absence of parasites
People get rich, things are great, parasites haven't moved in yet, people still work hard
The parasites move in and start sucking, while the pioneers get careless and unvigilant because of their wealth, i.e. the country move to socialism
It all gets wrecked, the parasites die or move on, the pioneers rebuild, people are poor and act like it
This cycle is generally viewed as the attitudes of people in general, but one can't accurately ignore the migration part of it.
The best way to sum up why the parasites exist, is that nature abhors a vacuum, and thus, there will be parasites where an opportunity exists.
THE PRESENT
We are in the stage where the hard workers have lost vigilance, and are letting the parasites run wild. We have moved a great deal towards socialism, to the point where we were on the verge of destroying the country, and perhaps it is already destroyed beyond quick fixes. We have two general kinds of parasites, welfare and corporate. Democrat voters, being welfare parasites, are quick to realize that corporate parasites are threatening their host. Republican voters were slow to see these corporate parasites, but have always been aware of welfare parasites.
Those who vote democrat without a (short-term) desire to suck welfare, probably want to be able to take it later, but will try the whole working thing as long as it's easy.
Another reason to vote democrat is a tribal loyalty, which comes from the limbic system, a primitive region of the brain, before the rational neo-cortex evolved on top of it. The primitive parts of the brain were not replaced, just added to. All human brains start at the same place as a reptile's. Read a book called "Pitch Anything" to understand this phenomenon, highly recommended.
It is probably both the aforementioned factors that create democrat voters. Why choose the parasite tribe if you want to live by your own work?
Trump was elected as an anti-parasite in hopes that there is still time. I suspect there is not. This is a freight train, and you can't just turn it around, especially with all the tracks going in the wrong direction.
Socialism/Parasitism, destroys all countries that let it.
THE FUTURE
Don't expect a Democrat to ever see the error of their ways. They will appear stupid, or blind to you, but I can't emphasize this enough, that is NOT the case. They aren't stupid, they are just lying. Their arguments are illogical because no amount of logic gets you to the conclusion that you should work for their benefit.
So, their ways are not actually in error, they just aren't trying to do what they say they want to do. They don't want to improve the economy with minimum wage hikes or welfare, they just want something for themselves.
Instead of logical arguments, they love emotional arguments, by finding suffering victims (even though they will result in more suffering), and they love moral high ground arguments. Think "Racist, Sexist, Biggot, Homophobe" and sometimes add a few more adjectives depending on the issues of the day.
In fact, the only true argument a parasite will give you, is the fact that there are other parasites, such as the big banks. Producers, in their own mental laziness, assume everything they say is a lie, and this actually prevents them from looking seriously into it.
The reason they support gun control is VERY simple. They want your stuff, which they perceive as easier to get if you are unarmed. They don't really rationalize it that way though, they just automatically respond to your ability to defend yourself as bad, as you are not in their tribe. These people prefer strength in numbers, rather than individuals.
The existence of peripheral issues, like gay marriage or global warming, is a way to make politics about something other than stealing money from producers.
When I say it's probably too late to stop them, that's actually never the case. We've already had a great deal of loss to them, and there will be more. Where exactly it will stop is impossible to say this far out. The events that everyone might associate with the "too late" is actually the cure. Social security and medicare will collapse.
Since they are destroying the entire world this time, they will have no place to move on to. Ultimately, they are going to be their own cure. As nearly a separate species, they have largely segregated themselves, and live in the big cities. Such a geographical barrier to reproduction would be enough to constitute a separate species, if it were a complete barrier.
Some say the limitations of food are largely a myth right now, and it might be the case, but it's a distinction without a difference. Either there will be a food shortage in the very near term, or a distribution problem. These parasites, being in proximity to almost exclusively other parasites, will turn on each other for survival.
I suppose I am writing on a large time frame, so I can't guarantee how imminent this era will be, but based on the pressures we see building right now and certain statistical modeling I can find, it will be over by about 2032. Basically, now is the best it's going to be for the next 16 years.
THE PAST
In the beginning, people came to the United States to get people off their back and to succeed or die based on their own merits. The pioneer or producer breed always sees opportunities to create value, and move to where these opportunities exist. In human history there have always been these people, as well as those who beg or steal/attack for a living, which one could call the parasite breed. These people can recognize opportunities to live off of the work of others, and move to where this opportunity is.
These two groups of humans are not entirely separate species, which is why I'm choosing to call them breeds. The distinction between the breeds is behavioral, not visual. Additionally, they are a tribe or team, and that is very important to realize. Much like criminal thieves, legal thieves have a much greater chance of success if they form a pack and outnumber those whom they wish to steal from.
A welfare parasite is not much different from a unabashed criminal, it's just that they have a different style to get their stealings. I suppose the welfare parasite is better, in that they do what they perceive is more tolerable by the producers. They can't claim they have permission from the producers, as removing their votes would see welfare abolished.
The pioneer breed will always be the first ones to a new location, and only after they have made it into a great success, the parasite breed will move in. typically, the parasite breed comes from a bad situation, which has been over-sucked by them, which is why they have to move. The pioneer class will be more attached to a specific location, because they have made it productive, and the parasite class will be more nomadic.
Because of the way they survive, pioneers are more patient, better at saving and investing, more truthful, while the parasites are the opposite.
This will explain the cycle of nations, which is expressed in different ways
People are poor, and act like they are poor, saving everything and working hard, absence of parasites
People get rich, things are great, parasites haven't moved in yet, people still work hard
The parasites move in and start sucking, while the pioneers get careless and unvigilant because of their wealth, i.e. the country move to socialism
It all gets wrecked, the parasites die or move on, the pioneers rebuild, people are poor and act like it
This cycle is generally viewed as the attitudes of people in general, but one can't accurately ignore the migration part of it.
The best way to sum up why the parasites exist, is that nature abhors a vacuum, and thus, there will be parasites where an opportunity exists.
THE PRESENT
We are in the stage where the hard workers have lost vigilance, and are letting the parasites run wild. We have moved a great deal towards socialism, to the point where we were on the verge of destroying the country, and perhaps it is already destroyed beyond quick fixes. We have two general kinds of parasites, welfare and corporate. Democrat voters, being welfare parasites, are quick to realize that corporate parasites are threatening their host. Republican voters were slow to see these corporate parasites, but have always been aware of welfare parasites.
Those who vote democrat without a (short-term) desire to suck welfare, probably want to be able to take it later, but will try the whole working thing as long as it's easy.
Another reason to vote democrat is a tribal loyalty, which comes from the limbic system, a primitive region of the brain, before the rational neo-cortex evolved on top of it. The primitive parts of the brain were not replaced, just added to. All human brains start at the same place as a reptile's. Read a book called "Pitch Anything" to understand this phenomenon, highly recommended.
It is probably both the aforementioned factors that create democrat voters. Why choose the parasite tribe if you want to live by your own work?
Trump was elected as an anti-parasite in hopes that there is still time. I suspect there is not. This is a freight train, and you can't just turn it around, especially with all the tracks going in the wrong direction.
Socialism/Parasitism, destroys all countries that let it.
THE FUTURE
Don't expect a Democrat to ever see the error of their ways. They will appear stupid, or blind to you, but I can't emphasize this enough, that is NOT the case. They aren't stupid, they are just lying. Their arguments are illogical because no amount of logic gets you to the conclusion that you should work for their benefit.
So, their ways are not actually in error, they just aren't trying to do what they say they want to do. They don't want to improve the economy with minimum wage hikes or welfare, they just want something for themselves.
Instead of logical arguments, they love emotional arguments, by finding suffering victims (even though they will result in more suffering), and they love moral high ground arguments. Think "Racist, Sexist, Biggot, Homophobe" and sometimes add a few more adjectives depending on the issues of the day.
In fact, the only true argument a parasite will give you, is the fact that there are other parasites, such as the big banks. Producers, in their own mental laziness, assume everything they say is a lie, and this actually prevents them from looking seriously into it.
The reason they support gun control is VERY simple. They want your stuff, which they perceive as easier to get if you are unarmed. They don't really rationalize it that way though, they just automatically respond to your ability to defend yourself as bad, as you are not in their tribe. These people prefer strength in numbers, rather than individuals.
The existence of peripheral issues, like gay marriage or global warming, is a way to make politics about something other than stealing money from producers.
When I say it's probably too late to stop them, that's actually never the case. We've already had a great deal of loss to them, and there will be more. Where exactly it will stop is impossible to say this far out. The events that everyone might associate with the "too late" is actually the cure. Social security and medicare will collapse.
Since they are destroying the entire world this time, they will have no place to move on to. Ultimately, they are going to be their own cure. As nearly a separate species, they have largely segregated themselves, and live in the big cities. Such a geographical barrier to reproduction would be enough to constitute a separate species, if it were a complete barrier.
Some say the limitations of food are largely a myth right now, and it might be the case, but it's a distinction without a difference. Either there will be a food shortage in the very near term, or a distribution problem. These parasites, being in proximity to almost exclusively other parasites, will turn on each other for survival.
I suppose I am writing on a large time frame, so I can't guarantee how imminent this era will be, but based on the pressures we see building right now and certain statistical modeling I can find, it will be over by about 2032. Basically, now is the best it's going to be for the next 16 years.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Something Big Tomorrow?
(daily chart)
The HUGE election expansion period is coming to an compressing end. Based on the big expansion cycles early on this chart, the first one continued up, and then the next compression resulted in nothing for like a month.
It seems like most of these compressions are also changes in the direction, but that certainly is not required, and might not even be true, since I don't have any numbers on that.
It is apparent as of right now, that we will end with the buy-the-open signal that has been right the majority of the time, but double check it before the close. Armstrong's timing array has today as a turning point on the Dow, which means a low, also implying a higher open.
It is bearish on Evolution though. The Evolution signals seem to work much better on individual stocks.
Beyond today, this week should overall finish higher than the last one, and next week should finish lower than this one, based on the weekly timing array.
Kind of a screw job
I've noticed this on several trades.
Despite the stock going down .86% on the day, MRK put options for Dec 16 made a profit of 1 penny. Aren't options supposed to have MORE action than the stock? WTF?
PFE went down .36% by the time I'm writing this, and my puts actually LOST money for the day! a 7.3% loss on the puts.
Meanwhile, KO dropped much less than MRK, and I had calls, and they got killed.
Despite the stock going down .86% on the day, MRK put options for Dec 16 made a profit of 1 penny. Aren't options supposed to have MORE action than the stock? WTF?
PFE went down .36% by the time I'm writing this, and my puts actually LOST money for the day! a 7.3% loss on the puts.
Meanwhile, KO dropped much less than MRK, and I had calls, and they got killed.
Most of the Banks are going Bearish
I looked at several individually, and they more or less look like this one. I think they might finish the day up from here so I'm going to wait until the close to buy puts. I think there is a good chance for stocks to finish up today and down tomorrow, so that makes me more confident.
Some hedged Evolution hits
Short
MMM
MRK
JJC
PFE (although the UO is a flat)
Long
KO
O
VZ
GLD (I personally did SLV despite GLD giving the better signal)
Most of these I've had for 1-2 days so I should have done this post when I got in :/
Predicting the overall market has not been going as well as your basic evolution picks.
Mannarino is still long SBUX and INTC. I suppose I can support those. INTC is based mostly on the weekly chart being so bullish, so maybe wait until Friday, but SBUX looks good immediately.
MMM
MRK
JJC
PFE (although the UO is a flat)
Long
KO
O
VZ
GLD (I personally did SLV despite GLD giving the better signal)
Most of these I've had for 1-2 days so I should have done this post when I got in :/
Predicting the overall market has not been going as well as your basic evolution picks.
Mannarino is still long SBUX and INTC. I suppose I can support those. INTC is based mostly on the weekly chart being so bullish, so maybe wait until Friday, but SBUX looks good immediately.
Stocks for Tomorrow
Today is a turning point on the DOW. Tomorrow should be the opposite action. The signal is pretty clear.
Also on the S&P, today is not a turning point, but I don't think that means much. Based on some other things I've read of his, a turning point is a solid signal for 2 days, and this is the second day. So while it is not a turning point signal, it's not signaling that it isn't a turning point either. It's just that there is no signal.
Also on the S&P, today is not a turning point, but I don't think that means much. Based on some other things I've read of his, a turning point is a solid signal for 2 days, and this is the second day. So while it is not a turning point signal, it's not signaling that it isn't a turning point either. It's just that there is no signal.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Weekly Data + One thing from the daily array
Without scrolling back too far, you can find the weekly arrays for the DOW and the Euro (FXE).
This week is a turning point for both instruments.
The Dow has taken out it's high of last week, and the FXE has taken out last weeks low.
The turning point is either a closing or intraday (I assume for the weekly array it's a weekly closing, or intraweek)
Which means we could have hit the turning point on any of these up days. There are also directional changes, which is interesting, considering how little action there has been this week so far, compared to last week. The Euro even has a double sized bar.
This week is a turning point for both instruments.
The Dow has taken out it's high of last week, and the FXE has taken out last weeks low.
The turning point is either a closing or intraday (I assume for the weekly array it's a weekly closing, or intraweek)
Which means we could have hit the turning point on any of these up days. There are also directional changes, which is interesting, considering how little action there has been this week so far, compared to last week. The Euro even has a double sized bar.
I also want to point out some oft ignored stuff on this daily. If you look at Comp-2 on the S&P, today is the turning point, and if you look at Long term on the S&P, today is also the turning point. Maybe I am trying to hard with this. Nothing looks special on the Dow for today.
The Last Day of the Cycle
Based on the action so far, and the Timing Arrays, the trend of today should continue into tomorrow, making tomorrow an up day.
It is the last day of the cycle, according to Bo Polny, and will be a crash day. Now most of you know him, and consider him to be highly inaccurate.
In my assessment, Bo Polny is wrong most of the time on his minor calls, but when he is confident enough to do a youtube video, he is usually always right, and these are major calls. He's put all his marbles into this call, so I am going to trust him one more time.
If the market opens up, then I'm out forever. He'll probably still get some things right, and I will keep monitoring him, but if this is a miss, we've got to expect him to be useless until proven otherwise. Also, he's gotten back to the Nasdaq chart for this last call, and this index has been fitting his predictions the best of the major indeces.
Some of his calls are
The all time low in gold late last year, and that it will continue through the Spring
The June top
Sept 6th and 22nd were both fairly major tops
August 15 top
Dollar top on Pi (actually the day before, because Pi was a Saturday). 3.14.15 is still the all time high.
So as you can see, there is something to this. The problem I suppose, is knowing which are the great calls of all time, and which are flat out wrong.
(Also on gold, he said it would never go below the 600 day MA again, where it currently rests, making it a buy if you're interested)
Here is the UUP dollar etf. It might not match up 100% with the actual value of the dollar (like SLV to actual silver). It had a nice down trend for a year and a half which was broken recently (can't stump the Trump) but remains a couple percent off the Pi High.
Please, share your thoughts if you have them :)
It is the last day of the cycle, according to Bo Polny, and will be a crash day. Now most of you know him, and consider him to be highly inaccurate.
In my assessment, Bo Polny is wrong most of the time on his minor calls, but when he is confident enough to do a youtube video, he is usually always right, and these are major calls. He's put all his marbles into this call, so I am going to trust him one more time.
If the market opens up, then I'm out forever. He'll probably still get some things right, and I will keep monitoring him, but if this is a miss, we've got to expect him to be useless until proven otherwise. Also, he's gotten back to the Nasdaq chart for this last call, and this index has been fitting his predictions the best of the major indeces.
Some of his calls are
The all time low in gold late last year, and that it will continue through the Spring
The June top
Sept 6th and 22nd were both fairly major tops
August 15 top
Dollar top on Pi (actually the day before, because Pi was a Saturday). 3.14.15 is still the all time high.
So as you can see, there is something to this. The problem I suppose, is knowing which are the great calls of all time, and which are flat out wrong.
(Also on gold, he said it would never go below the 600 day MA again, where it currently rests, making it a buy if you're interested)
Here is the UUP dollar etf. It might not match up 100% with the actual value of the dollar (like SLV to actual silver). It had a nice down trend for a year and a half which was broken recently (can't stump the Trump) but remains a couple percent off the Pi High.
Please, share your thoughts if you have them :)
Sunday, November 13, 2016
How to read timing arrays from Martin Armstrong
How to read Timing Arrays
Let's all read this and then we can help eachother out on what the array is actually saying.
Let's all read this and then we can help eachother out on what the array is actually saying.
Friday, November 11, 2016
MONDAY!!! 11-14-16 It's all coming together...
Now, this is the Dow, which hit a turning point today, which is obviously a high, the highest closing ever. Now the panic cycle I believe, is to bounce off the junction of these two lines on Monday, and then it's off the the races. I think Monday's action will be limited, and I can't even say what I think the S&P will do, it might finish up. That is the 14th.
The 15-16 is the real crash, and it looks like the S&P will finish down on the 17th as well.
The other thing to take note of, after a rally like that, you have to think stocks are overbought right?
I can't really fit this into the weekly array that I've seen. It said this week was not going to be significant. I'm thinking my conspiracy theory is accurate. They rigged the system to buy them a few days to position for a crash.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
My specific plan for this week and next
UPDATE for Friday, before the close -
Dow is up as foretold. I thought the S&P would be up also, but it's in that hard to read area because of the panic cycle. I think the the S&P has one more up day, and it's over for the Dow. So I'm going to be mostly neutral for Monday, probably with something hedged.
Now, there is a panic cycle for Monday, so the Dow is really unpredictable. After Monday, it should go straight down for 2 days. The S&P has a 3 day movement after whatever happens Monday, which I assume is a high, although that makes today's action unexplainable.
Tomorrow is a high confidence up day, I will be long fairly heavily
Most of these longs I will close out Friday before the close to free up day trade buying power for Monday. Maybe I will be completely out of it by the close. I'll look at my "predict the open" signal.
Monday - It looks like there will be a panic dip in the Dow, I will buy heavily, and it should finish up. If it is a panic move upwards, then no big deal! The point is that it will reverse from the initial move (if the panic cycle plays out)
I will close out and be short as much as possible Tues-Wed. Close positions Wednesday late. Bo Polny has Wednesday as a major crash day, which coincides with this array.
Get in long on Thursday with routine sized investments. Hopefully I will be a millionaire by this day.
This is all subject to change! The only one I know for sure is the first one. I'm not encouraging anyone to follow me. This is mostly for me! I think if I write down my plan, I will remember why I thought the way that I thought.
Let me know if you think I'm reading this right or wrong.
Note on Polny - he is far from perfect, but he's close enough to be interesting
Dow is up as foretold. I thought the S&P would be up also, but it's in that hard to read area because of the panic cycle. I think the the S&P has one more up day, and it's over for the Dow. So I'm going to be mostly neutral for Monday, probably with something hedged.
Now, there is a panic cycle for Monday, so the Dow is really unpredictable. After Monday, it should go straight down for 2 days. The S&P has a 3 day movement after whatever happens Monday, which I assume is a high, although that makes today's action unexplainable.
Tomorrow is a high confidence up day, I will be long fairly heavily
Most of these longs I will close out Friday before the close to free up day trade buying power for Monday. Maybe I will be completely out of it by the close. I'll look at my "predict the open" signal.
Monday - It looks like there will be a panic dip in the Dow, I will buy heavily, and it should finish up. If it is a panic move upwards, then no big deal! The point is that it will reverse from the initial move (if the panic cycle plays out)
I will close out and be short as much as possible Tues-Wed. Close positions Wednesday late. Bo Polny has Wednesday as a major crash day, which coincides with this array.
Get in long on Thursday with routine sized investments. Hopefully I will be a millionaire by this day.
This is all subject to change! The only one I know for sure is the first one. I'm not encouraging anyone to follow me. This is mostly for me! I think if I write down my plan, I will remember why I thought the way that I thought.
Let me know if you think I'm reading this right or wrong.
Note on Polny - he is far from perfect, but he's close enough to be interesting
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