When I trade bonds, it's with the IEF fund. I think it's been a bit easier to predict that other markets short term.
According to Martin Armstrong, the bond bubble has officially burst. Eyeballing it, it appears to be down about 20% from the high a few months ago, but actually up on the year. This year was his projected high in the yearly timing array. He projects two years of drop in the future.
So it seems like a viable strategy to short the IEF whenever it looks good, especially when we get an evolution signal. Who is with me?
Here's the article for your pleasure
I personally do not see this as a shorting opportunity, as it is far from the top of the channel. Maybe with the rising stock market in the second half of this month, it would be a good time.
The theory is basically bond money will be leaving bonds and going to stocks. I can't say that I fully understand it, but I do trust the guy more than my own understanding.
So with his early article saying stocks will stall and test resistance, I'm waiting to enter this particular market.
IEF is not 30 year bonds like he talks about here, I think it's 7-10, but I think they will track together. I'll look around for other funds but the IEF seems to be easy to get in and out of.
Joe, Thank you as always for posting the Armstrong arrays. Your frankness (honesty) is something that is lacking amongst the people where i live in Southern Europe - where most expect the state to satisfy their envy. I wish you well
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWho do you follow that is more accurate on rate hikes? mainstream media? How are the 4 rate hikes in 2014 going?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteWhat is the point of all of this? Are you trying to show us something that we do not see because you are a good person. You are offering no solution to a problem that you clearly see. I am quite aware of what Mannarino said. He has said the Fed could never raise rates for the past year. Now he is saying they will raise rates this month. So What? Eventually they will have to raise rates. Stop taking things so literal.
ReplyDeleteIs Mannarino perfect? No he is not. Can he be wrong? Of course he can just like how you can be wrong. I do not follow all of is picks. I do my research into it. If I didn't think it would work out I wouldn't be here. And this blog has been mostly focused on Array charts as of late, not Evolution charts. Have you missed that? You may think you are helping, but you are not.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteHey everyone, this post is not about the fed funds rate!
ReplyDelete