Through a variety of means, I have convinced myself with high probability that Le Pen will win the French elections. She is not favored to win, so this is not priced in.
According to Armstrong, there will be a bounce before the crash, so don't short yet.
"The key resistance will be 10855 and a weekly closing above that level will point to a rally back to the 11050 area and a monthly closing above that would then point to 112-115 level. March needs to close above 11300 on a pure technical perspective to raise any hope of a more prolonged rally beyond 2 months."
I suspect that because there is no hope of a prolonged rally, March will not close above 1130.
It does look a bit bullish on the weekly chart for the short term. Based on what Armstrong says, I will look for a bounce off of 110.50 or 108.55 for my entry. It will weaken to zero by 2018 but I'll probably just target June or so with options.
Somewhat related to this will be the collapse of Italy, EWI.
DB is supposed to make a monthly turning point in April. So that makes sense that April could be a high and then it drops in May when Le Pen wins May 7th.
I'm just doing this blog entry for myself, as I plan to refer back to this post instead of rounding up multiple sources every time I want to double check my thinking.
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