Markets through mid March

Yes it's been a while since the last post!  But I don't want to post stuff just to have a post.  There are a number of people calling for the market to go down next week. 


Bo Polny keeps calling for crashes that don't happen, but several times there have been 10% drops on his timing, and many times the market does indeed hit a temporarily low on his dates.  He's expecting two cycle lows, Feb 15 and March something or other.  I'll look that up when we get closer. 


Martin Armstrong has been predicting this week to be a short term top also.  He also said somewhere recently that when a market creeps up like the last few weeks, it's not really a great bull market, and could be a "bull trap"


Webbot is generally pro crisis from mid Feb onward.


however, John Howell says it's all bullish. 


After this good run, my opinion is that we will get a down week, and who knows/cares how low it will go. 


Martin Armstrong has the following weekly reversals:
The Weekly Projected Bullish Reversals are  20,475.23,  20,518.80, 21,882.34, and 22,188.86. These are the What-If numbers so they may change if we make a new weekly low.  I don't think we are supposed to pay too much attention to these in the near future based on context.


So how can I play it safe and still capitalize if it's true?  Here's the SPX.  Maybe it's at a top.  Some previous touches sold off, but recently it hasn't.  I think shorting this is risky.  Having said that, I don't know what support would be, those major bottoms don't line up as well is they look from here, but maybe they point to like 2175.


The following charts are all weekly

Silver is maybe at some kind of top, I'd say overall it looks bearish to me and Armstrong thinks so too.  Most others would disagree, but I don't have Polny's gold forecast.  Maybe it would say something like "one more possible sell off before moonshot.  The gold chart really doesn't line up much right now. 

I like the following charts much better.  What if the market crashes, do you think Greece or Italy would be spared?  I think Greece is going to lead the way into the sucky future.

The Italy chart (EWI) looks similar to this Greece one (GREK).  GREK is also at some support, so I think a pro would say to make sure it breaks before entering.  EWI is maybe at a horizontal support?

EEM (emerging markets) is sort of at a double top right now, so I'm going to pay attention to the close and Monday's action.

The final chart is a long term DB chart.  Why DB?  Because it always pops into my head if I'm thinking of a possible crash (I use the term loosely) 

So these later charts have not only bounced off of multi year resistance, but have also turned down in the most recent bars.  Also these lines can be solid exit-cut-losses points, which I now realize are essential.